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NNE Winter 2013-14 Part 2


klw

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Haven't posted any photos in a while, so here are a few to ease the cutter--

 

The aforementioned ice skating trail on Lake Morey this past Saturday:

 

11806904254_958a21f1fd_z.jpg

 

People & dogs out having fun:

 

11806499645_83a98eac7c_z.jpg

 

The scene of yesterday's ski tour:

 

11806746103_da7bd07484_z.jpg

 

Aaaand, the driving conditions around the 'hood this morning (not me):

 

11807240106_e059b2f58d_z.jpg

 

Nice pics, That skating trail is cool

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looks like the northern Spine is picking up a little moisture in WNW flow.  Squeeze an inch or two out of this by morning?  Hopefully that changeover dusting bonded well with the 'pack.  Narrow bands coming off Lake Ontario are at least providing some moisture in the flow- WRF showing 0.1" QPF through tomorrow afternoon with high ratios could leave some scraps for us... same goes for Weds afternoon.  A little nickel/dime pattern, again...

 

The WRF does undershoot upslope moisture in upslope NW flow regimes if I'm not mistaken, but not sure how it handles these setups.  Is it one of those things that is on the small side of mesoscale modeling with the narrow and intermittent lake bands that it's difficult to model save for a few-to-several hours out? Or does it handle moisture in these setups well?  

 

edit:  update from BTV office:

 

BY 12Z TUESDAY MORNING...SHOULD BE LOOKING AT
1-3" OF SNOW IN SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES WITH
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND A DUSTING-3" ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE
GREEN MOUNTAINS.
FOR THE GREENS...FROUDE NUMBERS INDICATE UNBLOCKED FLOW
WITH STRONG WINDS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...SO THE HIGHEST TOTALS
WILL BE ALONG AND DOWNWIND OF THE SPINE. INDICATIONS ARE THAT FLOW

TURNS MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY ON TUESDAY AND INTENSIFIES WITH
850-MB FLOW OF NEAR 50 KNOTS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIKELY BE
ENOUGH TO TRANSPORT SOME OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WELL EASTWARD AND
INTO VERMONT.

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No, not unless someone is renting skates. There's a town beach you can park at and access the ice from there--at the south end of the lake.

That was the next question- do they have skates for rent? Is there an open area for skating but not hockey?

If my back patio was bigger, I could just break out the skates here. Very slick, I had hoped today would clear out the worst of it but it just made it flat and smooth.

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That was the next question- do they have skates for rent? Is there an open area for skating but not hockey?

If my back patio was bigger, I could just break out the skates here. Very slick, I had hoped today would clear out the worst of it but it just made it flat and smooth.

 

they have open areas for pick up hockey and general skating.  Figure and hockey skates are availible to rent.  And the Fairlee Diner around the corner does a good breakfast if you've never been.

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Total precip was 1.43", a bit less than I'd guessed but 10X more than I wanted.  It finished with a brief flurry, not even worth calling a dusting.  Temp still 29 at 9 PM (slow descent here, too), slush ridges in driveway still are soft and have 3-4" of saturated mess at their base, so just about impossible to smooth out, and will be like driving over railroad iron tomorrow morning.

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That was the next question- do they have skates for rent? Is there an open area for skating but not hockey?

If my back patio was bigger, I could just break out the skates here. Very slick, I had hoped today would clear out the worst of it but it just made it flat and smooth.

Tell me about it. I felt like I re-graveled my driveway putting down sand this afternoon.
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they have open areas for pick up hockey and general skating.  Figure and hockey skates are availible to rent.  And the Fairlee Diner around the corner does a good breakfast if you've never been.

This year they have moved the skate shack into the clubhouse and are also serving lunch and some other hot foods and drinks!!  WCAX just did a piece on it the other day.  I have a pond on the property which should be good tomorrow, but so much nicer most of the time to go over where it has been plowed for you :).

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looks like the northern Spine is picking up a little moisture in WNW flow.  Squeeze an inch or two out of this by morning?  Hopefully that changeover dusting bonded well with the 'pack.  Narrow bands coming off Lake Ontario are at least providing some moisture in the flow- WRF showing 0.1" QPF through tomorrow afternoon with high ratios could leave some scraps for us... same goes for Weds afternoon.  A little nickel/dime pattern, again...

 

The WRF does undershoot upslope moisture in upslope NW flow regimes if I'm not mistaken, but not sure how it handles these setups.  Is it one of those things that is on the small side of mesoscale modeling with the narrow and intermittent lake bands that it's difficult to model save for a few-to-several hours out? Or does it handle moisture in these setups well? 

 

edit:  update from BTV office:

 

BY 12Z TUESDAY MORNING...SHOULD BE LOOKING AT

1-3" OF SNOW IN SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES WITH

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND A DUSTING-3" ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE

GREEN MOUNTAINS. FOR THE GREENS...FROUDE NUMBERS INDICATE UNBLOCKED FLOW

WITH STRONG WINDS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...SO THE HIGHEST TOTALS

WILL BE ALONG AND DOWNWIND OF THE SPINE. INDICATIONS ARE THAT FLOW

TURNS MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY ON TUESDAY AND INTENSIFIES WITH

850-MB FLOW OF NEAR 50 KNOTS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIKELY BE

ENOUGH TO TRANSPORT SOME OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WELL EASTWARD AND

INTO VERMONT.

 

 Indeed, the snow has been falling here to put a new coating atop the pack – there was a good band coming right down the Winooski Valley:

 

06JAN14B.gif

 

I measured 0.3” as of 9:00 P.M., but it looks like we could get some more.

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looks like a nice little refresh is happening.  my gut tells me the MRV could do ok here as the radar has been lighting up south of 89 a bit more over the past several hours and these lake effect bands seem to take a liking to central VT. but i don't know diddly jack. So I just sit and observe the feeds. and there's a nicely defined SW-NE oriented band translating on a westerly track coming off Ontario ATTM.  

 

LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
INTENSIFY ON TUESDAY WITH 50 KNOTS AT 850 MB AND THIS WILL LIKELY
BE ENOUGH TO TRANSPORT SOME OF THE SNOW EASTWARD AND INTO
VERMONT...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN GREENS. THIS COMBINED WITH ANY
SNOW SHOWERS SEEN TONIGHT SHOULD LEAVE 1-4" OF SNOWFALL WITH A
DUSTING-1" ELSEWHERE.

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Dusting overnight, had 10F and windy at 7 AM.  Uncomfy driving on local roads due to the ice chunks frozen to the pavement - 25 mph max if one doesn't wish to have their fillings rattled loose.  Still water running across Route 27 in places, especially the first mile north of Belgrade Village, which is always ice-hole city after this kind of event.  Still have 16" snowpack, which should be solid enough to withstand the next rain event this weekend.

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Event totals: 0.3” Snow/0.79” L.E.

 

There’s nothing more to report for snow accumulations this morning at our location beyond what came down yesterday evening, although if a bit more fluff did fall, it would be hard to tell because it blows around quite easily in the breeze.  I found 0.56” additional liquid in the rain gauge during my 6:00 P.M. analysis yesterday evening, which brings the storm total liquid to 0.79”, very close to the ~¾” projected in the point forecast hourly weather plot from the BTV NWS.  Base on what I’m seeing in our current snowpack, it looks like it was the snow from the recent coastal storm that did the most melting/consolidating.  I’d left the 3” of snow from that event on the deck prior to this event, and now that’s down to just an icy sheet.  It would be nice to know what the current liquid is in the snowpack after this event, but I’ll have to see if I get motivated to deal with sampling it.  It was hard enough before this storm to get through all the hard layers in the snowpack, and now it’s even stiffer on top.    

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 0.3 inches

New Liquid: Trace

Temperature: 10.8 F

Sky: Partly Cloudy

Snow at the stake: 6.0 inches

 

It’s been a few days since I checked in on where season snowfall sits with respect to my averages, and I was expecting to see a dramatic deficiency, but surprisingly, we’re only about a foot behind the pace (80.6% of average).  Of course that 20% deficiency doesn’t quite speak to how slow snowfall has been of late, due to the buffer that November provided.  Looking back in the data, the break point for falling below average was right around Christmas day – that’s where December’s dearth of snow finally caught up with November’s surplus.  Snowpack is at 6” as of today vs. an average of ~12”, but of course the liquid content in the current snowpack is very robust.

 

Upcoming chances for snow appear to be over the next couple of days, and then the weekend, although the current forecast suggests that snow potential with that one would be similar to the one that just came through the area.

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Cold one today. 

 

Picked up a half-inch last night just before bed.  All blown away by now for sure.

 

That was the next question- do they have skates for rent? Is there an open area for skating but not hockey?


If my back patio was bigger, I could just break out the skates here. Very slick, I had hoped today would clear out the worst of it but it just made it flat and smooth.

 

Yeah, I'm pretty sure the Lake Morey Resort rents skates.  As heavysnow79 said, check in at the golf course club house.  If you go that route, you can access the lake from the inn.

 

And yeah, there's a 4.5 mile skate loop that's a little narrow for hockey.  ;)

 

 

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The driveway is a skating rink.......

photo10_zps637d8bbb.jpg

:lol: I'll have to take a picture of mine too...looks pretty similar. Clear pond ice. Mine is a dirt driveway that I'm pretty sure accumulated most of yesterday's rain as ice, even with temps in the mid 30s. The dirt surface was just that cold I guess after the -25F type cold we had. The only problem is that last night we got just a 1/4" skim of snow that is covering some areas and giving a false sense of traction when walking. It really does look like a pond with a skiff of snow on top and high winds that have blown the snow into little waves with gaps of clear ice in between, haha.
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:lol: I'll have to take a picture of mine too...looks pretty similar. Clear pond ice. Mine is a dirt driveway that I'm pretty sure accumulated most of yesterday's rain as ice, even with temps in the mid 30s. The dirt surface was just that cold I guess after the -25F type cold we had. The only problem is that last night we got just a 1/4" skim of snow that is covering some areas and giving a false sense of traction when walking. It really does look like a pond with a skiff of snow on top and high winds that have blown the snow into little waves with gaps of clear ice in between, haha.

 

lol, Mine is asphalt, But it runs east to west, And with the low sun angle, I get just about zero melting

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