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NNE Winter 2013-14 Part 2


klw

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Max 15.2 Min -11.2...kind of a bummer considering it was -10.5 at 9pm. Light mixing and clouds pretty much ruined the ability to push -20F.

Now we try to mitigate the cutter damage on Monday. Looks like we'll have some ZR thanks to in-situ damming, but it doesn't look like too much of a big deal to me. Of course any icing warrants a WWA though.

After the cutter we will get some sloppy seconds of the Arctic outbreak to our west. And then comes the dreaded January thaw...

And oh BTW...the speed limit from Canterbury to the VT border is now 70mph on I93. That should make the M***holes happy. ;)

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Max 15.2 Min -11.2...kind of a bummer considering it was -10.5 at 9pm. Light mixing and clouds pretty much ruined the ability to push -20F.

Now we try to mitigate the cutter damage on Monday. Looks like we'll have some ZR thanks to in-situ damming, but it doesn't look like too much of a big deal to me. Of course any icing warrants a WWA though.

After the cutter we will get some sloppy seconds of the Arctic outbreak to our west. And then comes the dreaded January thaw...

And oh BTW...the speed limit from Canterbury to the VT border is now 70mph on I93. That should make the M***holes happy. ;)

I drove today from the Lakes Region over to the Fairlee VT area, then down to White River Junction and back east.  The pines in many sheltered areas are just loaded with snow.  Tomorrow night could be real tough on them.  Wonder how much of the qpf will be below freezing??

 

By the way Brian,  I got a $175 speeding ticket 2 months on Rt 93 just north of Exit 20 for going 77mph.  The officer said they were rasing the speed limit in the future but for now it was 65mph.  11mph over put me in a higher range.  I may have posted this back then, but I was down in Concord and heading back up here and  there was a sharp warm front between Concord and my house moving north..  I wanted to punch back through it going north.  I like an idiot told the officer this, he was not impressed.  Im such a weather weanie!

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Winter Weather Advisories are up throughout all of Vermont and Northern New York, although they are generally for sleet and freezing rain and their effects on travel as the headline below suggests:

 

04JAN14A.jpg

 

With that said, the point forecast here calls for the full gambit of precipitation types with ~3/4” of liquid equivalent and frozen material on the front and back ends, so hopefully it’s a good addition to the total liquid in the snowpack:

 

04JAN14B.jpg

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Sneaky cold around here last night--got down to zero.  Back up to 9 atm.

Yeah...definitely overperforming. MOS had upper single digits for CON and they managed -4F. Min here was 0.5F.

Looks like a little ice and then we tickle into the 40s tomorrow. Then we get a midnight high for Tuesday.

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Yeah...definitely overperforming. MOS had upper single digits for CON and they managed -4F. Min here was 0.5F.

Looks like a little ice and then we tickle into the 40s tomorrow. Then we get a midnight high for Tuesday.

 

Clouds up here allowed us to get no lower than 15F... and you can definitely see the clouds and temp relationship this morning across northern NY and northern VT. 

 

Also looks to be warming from the top down now, as the 1500-2,400ft higher elevations in southern VT that were brutally cold yesterday morning, are now the warmest around that area. 

 

I noticed the St Lawerance Valley is seeing snow now (MSS).

 

 

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Southeastern VT is taking it home right now...and that sounds like it continues over towards Dendrites' area and a lot of the southern half of New Hampshire.  The only other time I can remember lower elevation areas rivaling Mansfield's upper elevation snowpack was in January 2011.  A bunch of SNE spots came up into the 35-40" range and I remember that being about equal to what was at the Mansfield stake at that time.  It takes a special pattern of jackpotting (plus the northern Greens getting shafted) over several events to get lower elevation areas south or east of here to rival the big mountain's snow depth.  That's what we've got now though.

 

What's also interesting to me is that we haven't really had a true upslope event since the several we had in November.  December was almost completely devoid of a true, decent upslope event.  Those often make up for missing the synoptic storms, as that's the bread and butter up here when synoptic events haven't been working out.  Sure we've had the like 2-4"/3-5" type fluffers, but there hasn't been any true 10+ type events that can seem to happen at least once every few weeks.

 

I think the progressive pattern and jet stream has really been hurting us there...as low pressure systems haven't been able to wrap up and park themselves anywhere to our northeast.  They've been mainly open waves with weak to no closed circulations to advect Atlantic moisture on cyclonic flow back into the area for the terrain to work with.  And if we do get an upslope window, its really pretty short as the fast flow keeps the systems moving very quickly...and duration is certainly one of the main variables of a decent upslope event.

 

 

 

We definitely haven’t been receiving the usual allotment of snow up here in Northern Vermont in the past few weeks, but after getting out for some turns yesterday, I realize that we’re pretty spoiled in general.  I was curious how the skiing was going to be, since it seems like we’ve missed the more notable recent events, and I was surprised to find that even the snowpack at Bolton’s Timberline area is respectable.  Here’s an excerpt from my report yesterday:

 

“At the base elevations down at ~1,500’, the snowpack had a few different layers.  Going from the top down there were 3 to 4 inches of powder, with what appeared to be a thin crust below it, then another inch of powder, and then some denser snow.  All told it was only about 5 to 6 inches in deep, but there was enough substance to it that it seemed like it would provide some decent skiing.  Up above 2,000’ it was notably deeper, with more base and a snowpack hitting the 7-10” range.”

 

That’s west-facing terrain down low at ~I,500’.  While the snow deficiency here is certainly real, I think part of the perception is because accumulations haven’t been robust, but there’s definitely liquid in that snowpack.  This most recent storm seemed paltry in terms of accumulations, but we got almost a third of an inch of liquid equivalent out of it at the house, and that certainly represent some snowpack building.  There were dozens of tracks out there at Timberline, and while the snowpack there wouldn’t support lift-served skiing yet, people are clearly finding the skiing good.  If it wasn’t for the amount of liquid in the snowpack, there’s no way people would be skiing it that much.

 

I actually ran a snowpack liquid analysis this morning here at the house to send in to CoCoRaHS and see where things are at before this next event.  It’s currently at 2.41”, up from the 1.71” when I last measured on 12/23.  And, it certainly looks like there’s the potential for more gain from this next system, with some frozen and close to ¾” of liquid in the forecast.

 

I’ve added a couple of images below from yesterday’s report; I stopped for quite a while at sunset because it was a stunning one:

 

04JAN14C.jpg

 

04JAN14D.jpg

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Yes JSpin, we are quite spoiled...I posted some pics in the Ski Thread yesterday too. It's more like the longer I live here the more I expect it and the personal goal posts move more towards what the perceived "normal" snowfall is. When I was in Albany in high school I would've paid money to have what we have now, haha. I guess you can get jaded to some extent when spoiled...haha.

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I made an effort today of hitting a summit for sunrise. I chose Mt Hight (to the east of the Presidentials and a bare summit offering 360° views) and hoped for a show from the Northern Presidentials. Things were going fine when in microspikes, but turning onto a lesser-used trail necessitated the use of snowshoes, which slowed me dramatically. I watched Washington glow pink through the trees, but by the time I hit the summit they were their regular white and black. Still a wonderful day with summit temps at 25° and winds a benign 8mph.

post-254-0-12653100-1388949303_thumb.jpg

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28 will do the trick for a high here today.  Easing back now--24 with high clouds and a fuzzy crescent moon.

 

I wish I could get out there today ahead of the cutter of death, but I am stuck working.

 

I hear that.  I've spent many-a nice winter's day at the office dreaming of the trails & slopes...but at least we have great windows at work through which to look at the blue skies and fresh snow, lol.  ;)

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We only made it up to 23 today and it's now 22F, will be interesting to see how long it takes to get to freezing here in CT River Valley

 

Cooler in the valley today...! 

 

I skated a lap on the lake yesterday.  Don't know if you've been out but it was pretty good and the day was just about perfect.  The outside lane was the one to take.

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