ono Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I definitely wish it was going to be more robust here but oh well. I can't get excited for next week because it is a cutter and we may see some rain here. Ahh well here is to hoping for a big one sometime in the next couple of months up here. The cold surrounding is definitely the story. One thing the season has showed us - that nothing is certain until it's happening. The last few events on the downside- but things have busted the other way as well. Our memory has a way of digesting the positives differently than the negatives. Keeping expectations moderate helps... it'll snow and snow hard soon enough. And sometimes the ones with rain have a way of flipping into something goooood.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grambo Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Eyewall: I have a gut feeling the CPV will be getting the high end of the range on the NWS map. What are your ideas? And to answer your question from the other day: WPTZ has a new meteorologist. I caught his first on air forecast on Saturday. He kept saying "jackpot totals" over and over when forecasting the recent storm this past Sunday night in to Monday. I'm glad it isn't you because I cringe when I read or hear that. Dunno why but maybe it's cause a lot of snow isn't always a "jackpot" when you're out cleaning it up for a few days. Frankly, I'll stick to WCAX. I like Gary Sidowski. I don't mind watching Kerrin Jeromin, either, for obvious reasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 One thing the season has showed us - that nothing is certain until it's happening. The last few events on the downside- but things have busted the other way as well. Our memory has a way of digesting the positives differently than the negatives. Keeping expectations moderate helps... it'll snow and snow hard soon enough. And sometimes the ones with rain have a way of flipping into something goooood.... Yeah I am hoping for at least a solid front end thump on the cutter and if we are lucky the center will pass a little farther east. You are right about the certainty aspect as I have noticed with forecasts here. Even the ice storm had some wrenches thrown in and the expected rise above freezing never occurred. My hope for a positive bust with this first system is a little more robust impacts from blocking/convergence in the CPV on Friday. We shall see. Either way it will be air fluff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Odds & sods: Super nice deep winter day today. Maine folks--didn't realize how cold you were this morning till now. Not so here. Single digits above did the trick. Finished the year here at 47.03" precip-wise. Some fresh snow on the way and not terribly concerned about early next week. There's usually a rebound after a flexing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 lol. Only got down to 5f. Another 6-8" snow is going to create quite the pack. You gotta figure this won't last forever. I'll take moderating temps but no big warm-up please Ended up bottoming out at -14.4F this am, Rode 50 miles today, Trails were flat and fast here, Tickled 100 mph a couple times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 lol. Only got down to 5f. Another 6-8" snow is going to create quite the pack. You gotta figure this won't last forever. I'll take moderating temps but no big warm-up please Ended up bottoming out at -14.4F this am, Rode 50 miles today, Trails were flat and fast here, Tickled 100 mph a couple times nice. Will be heading to Andover sometime this wknd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 nice. Will be heading to Andover sometime this wknd Lot of snow dust early as it was -8F, Going back out this weekend though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Event totals: 1.7” Snow/0.07” L.E. I finally had a chance to run the liquid analysis for this most recent event, with 0.5” through yesterday evening, and an additional 1.2” overnight. Details from the 5:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 1.7 inches New Liquid: 0.07 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 24.3 Snow Density: 4.1% H2O Temperature: 7.2 F Sky: Partly Cloudy Snow at the stake: 7.0 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 The afternoon updates on the advisory and estimated snowfall maps from BTV are below - Winter Storm Watches were converted to Winter Storm Warnings for the southern half of the state, with Winter Weather Advisories covering the next tier northward. Our point forecast here in the 2-4” range hasn’t really changed, but a comparison of the current storm total snow forecast map to previous one shows that each colored accumulation zone has moved about a half a county northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 The afternoon updates on the advisory and estimated snowfall maps from BTV are below - Winter Storm Watches were converted to Winter Storm Warnings for the southern half of the state, with Winter Weather Advisories covering the next tier northward. Our point forecast here in the 2-4” range hasn’t really changed, but a comparison of the current storm total snow forecast map to previous one shows that each colored accumulation zone has moved about a half a county northward. Definitely a good sign. Keep it coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 BTV's Facebook map... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Looks like WSM dropped to WWA for my area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 December weather data collection here at our site is complete, so I can pass along our location’s liquid and snowfall numbers for both December and the 2013 calendar year. December ended with 4.15” of liquid, close to an inch under the 5.03” average I have for the previous three Decembers. More notable was that snowfall was only 26.2”, just 61.3% of average, but it can’t be considered overly aberrant because it did manage to slip in there within one standard deviation of the mean by a fraction of an inch. It’s surprising that it came in so low for snowfall with the similarities to December 2007 (67.2”) and December 2008 (55.9”), but total liquid this past month was likely a bit lower than those years, and that big frontal boundary event with just 0.8” of snow/sleet was likely a big tipping point. If the 1.75” of liquid from that event had been mostly snow, it likely would have pushed the month up toward average snowfall. For the 2013 calendar year, total liquid came in at 55.73”, which seems to be right around average based on the way my liquid data from the past few seasons are pointing (56.20”). For comparison on the east and west sides of the spine, BTV and MPV came in with 44.99” and 37.14” respectively. Checking in on the 2013-2014 snow season as of January 1st, at 45.3”, season snowfall is lagging behind the mean by 8.6” (84.1% of average). So we’re definitely not knocking it out of the park this season, but despite the poor December, we’re still within striking distance of average thanks to the decent November. Snowpack as of this morning was at 7.5”, just a couple of inches below the mean I have of 10.0” for this date. The progress of the snowpack this season relative to average is shown in the plot below – there have certainly been some ups and downs as is often the case, but smoothed out I bet it would be something close to that mean shown in green fill: So far though, despite the invasions of cold air we’ve been seeing, it doesn’t seem like massive suppression of storms has been an issue. With 24 accumulating snowfall events through January 1st, this season is still running in 1st place for that category, outpacing even 2007-2008, which was up to 22 storms by this point. One can’t argue that the storm track has been too far away, and there are certainly a couple of synoptic storms in the pipe. Fortunately, even with the often progressive weather pattern, getting into the sweet spot on a couple of synoptic events where the Northern Greens can do their thing can quickly make up ground on season snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Really a shame that this great stretch has to be marred by another rainstorm in a few days. I don't have any illusions about this being Labrador or anything, but it'd be nice to get to enjoy the snow for more than a couple days before it gets wiped out or at least sullied by a cutter -- especially one that's sandwiched between two near-record cold periods. I'd been clinging to the GFS, but now it's caving; looks ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nittany88 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 So the wind chill is -22F and the temperature may not rise above 0 the next 2 days. Why in God's name do I live here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Really a shame that this great stretch has to be marred by another rainstorm in a few days. I don't have any illusions about this being Labrador or anything, but it'd be nice to get to enjoy the snow for more than a couple days before it gets wiped out or at least sullied by a cutter -- especially one that's sandwiched between two near-record cold periods. I'd been clinging to the GFS, but now it's caving; looks ugly.not surprised, but it would be nice to have some moderation and not wild swings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 -9 and light snow this morning. That is impressive to me even if we won't see big amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Definitely a good sign. Keep it coming I guess it did keep coming, as the overnight accumulations maps certainly saw another bump up here in the northern part of Vermont. The accumulation’s brackets took another full county’s worth of movement northward, and our point forecast here has now increased to the 4-8” range. Interestingly, map coloring has actually been toned back a bit at the southern extent of BTV’s projection map. As for the advisories map, there’s been some Winter Weather Advisories dropped north of the Winter Storm Warnings in New York State and replaced with Wind Chill Warnings and a Hazardous Weather Outlook has been added for the northern half of Vermont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Had -10 with clouds and a raw breeze at 7 AM, now looking at very light snow grains in AUG. The Monday mess is disappointing - our 20" snowpack with a 1.5" sleet/ice sandwich near the midpoint isn't threatened, but all the drainage infrastructure may wind up filled with ice after the temps crash, potentially making the spring thaw more interesting than we'd prefer. (Or maybe a repeat of 1976, when one thaw-then-cold was followed by an even more dramatic one on groundhog day, making N.Maine roads neary impassible with ice holes.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Big Black River, ME bottomed out at -42F. Currently -36F. http://waterdata.usgs.gov/usa/nwis/uv?01010070 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Big Black River, ME bottomed out at -42F. Currently -36F. http://waterdata.usgs.gov/usa/nwis/uv?01010070 Yup, Mentioned it the other day that they would probably see -40F, There or nine mile bridge, But looks like van buren took home the gold PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME845 AM EST THU JAN 2 2014...LATEST LOW TEMPERATURE REPORTS...LOCATION TEMP TIME/DATE LAT/LON...MAINE......AROOSTOOK...VAN BUREN -47 0732 AM 01/02 47.17N/67.94WBIG BLACK RIVER -42 0630 AM 01/02 46.89N/69.75WNINE-MILE BRIDGE -40 0600 AM 01/02 46.70N/69.72WDICKEY -39 0500 AM 01/02 47.11N/69.09WLIMESTONE -36 0630 AM 01/02 46.55N/67.49WLILLE -35 0700 AM 01/02 47.28N/68.11W1 SW FORT KENT -34 0703 AM 01/02 47.24N/68.61W5 SE GRAND ISLE -31 0631 AM 01/02 47.24N/68.10WLILLE -31 0700 AM 01/02 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grambo Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Just experienced my first frost quake. The floor in my house sounded like it cracked after I thought I heard something fall off the roof.... followed a split second later by a deep rumble. Cool and strange at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Let the sugar fly out there. Holding at -8F. Looks like we will remain below zero all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Just experienced my first frost quake. The floor in my house sounded like it cracked after I thought I heard something fall off the roof.... followed a split second later by a deep rumble. Cool and strange at the same time. we heard the same thing. thought it was ice coming off the roof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Van Buren trying to recapture the state record that Big Black took away 5 yr ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Really not bad with the inversion on the mountain...Mansfield is over 10 degrees warmer than BTV at this point. 4000ft...+2F 1500ft...0F 1200ft...0F (MPV) 750ft...-2F (MVL) 300ft...-9F (BTV) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 BTV Trimmed back the snow amounts back to 2-4 here: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/btv/html/StormTotalSnow/StormTotalSnow.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Break out the vodka it is -10F here. Hard to say how much snow has fallen so far as it is blowing around a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Van Buren trying to recapture the state record that Big Black took away 5 yr ago. They got close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 2:30pm obs from home... 0.7" on 0.05" liquid. I am clearing one board every 6 hours and leaving another as it lies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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