dryslot Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Iirc last year the euro had d5 storms repeatedly and they never panned out. I might be totally wrong but that's my recollection. I would probably feel the same way if the euro was not supported by its ensemble members but they do support it and are a hair better and colder, But even the GEFS are west at 18z of the op which had these systems further east, So that is a flag to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Leon!imagine you will take this type of winter over and over, the meltdowns here are great though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 imagine you will take this type of winter over and over, the meltdowns here are great though. We have jumpers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 We have jumpersJan 13th on the verge of a great pattern, smdh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Jan 13th on the verge of a great pattern, smdh All i see is nothing but positives moving forward, Folks need to have patience Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 imagine you will take this type of winter over and over, the meltdowns here are great though. It's been a bit messy, but I've enjoyed late Nov through early Jan. I hate wasting the climo cold time of the year on 40s, but we've at least had some good cold shots regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Jan 13th on the verge of a great pattern, smdhI see potential with at least it being cold, but not seeing the "great pattern" yet. If I was in ME and NH I would probably have a different feeling so far. Ginxy, it's not by chance that the VT crowd is down. We are usually a pretty objective group. If it's great we say so...if it's rough we also say so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 I see potential with at least it being cold, but not seeing the "great pattern" yet. If I was in ME and NH I would probably have a different feeling so far. Ginxy, it's not by chance that the VT crowd is down. We are usually a pretty objective group. If it's great we say so...if it's rough we also say so. You have seen the Euro, GFS and GGEM and Ens. Dime turn is my call. If Feb 1 you are still bumming and ready to do a swan dive off a rocky cliff I will understand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 I see potential with at least it being cold, but not seeing the "great pattern" yet. If I was in ME and NH I would probably have a different feeling so far. Ginxy, it's not by chance that the VT crowd is down. We are usually a pretty objective group. If it's great we say so...if it's rough we also say so. You're having a pre-2004 Red Sox attitude about this. Just because you Buckner'd the first half doesn't mean you will continue down that path of luck. Your climo the rest of the way says you'll get a lot of snow and the pattern is favorable for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 You have seen the Euro, GFS and GGEM and Ens. Dime turn is my call. If Feb 1 you are still bumming and ready to do a swan dive off a rocky cliff I will understand. Fair enough...this is about the time when 2012, 2007, and 2002 started making up ground (second half of Jan) and right now we are pretty similar to those in terms of snowfall and snow depth. This winter has certainly been colder than those to date though. I think our opinions in VT would be different if the one warning criteria storm didn't under-whelm, we didn't get fringed/whiffed by the big arctic storm with the over-running fluff, and then the kick in the balls was that system where we saw a third of an inch of rain while Dendrite/ColdFront/wxeye/etc got 6-12" of paste. That one was rough, seeing it rain to the summits up here while low elevations in NH/ME were getting 1-2" per hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Powderfreak ...they are all pulling for you in sne thread ..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 You're having a pre-2004 Red Sox attitude about this. Just because you Buckner'd the first half doesn't mean you will continue down that path of luck. Your climo the rest of the way says you'll get a lot of snow and the pattern is favorable for you.That's a perfect analogy, haha. Like the Sox reference.I know it seems like just me because I post the most on here out of the NNE crowd, but that's really the mood of the skiers in this area. Mad River Valley residents are hanging from bridges (MRG constantly posting to folks to start doing anything they can think of to get it to snow), at Stowe and Smugglers Notch people are sacrificing animals, even Jay Peak actually flipped off Mother Nature on their snow report, the Champlain Valley has lost interest for the time being (ADK only coming to the mountain a couple times a week instead of daily?). We have been really spoiled in the last decade is what it comes down to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Pfreak you have been entertaining, man those stowe mtn ops meetings prob need to spike the h20 w Prozac. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 My advice to you, is to start drinking heavily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ono Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Today was, for me, the most pitiful Mid- January lift ride up Sterling at Smuggs I've experienced- it looked really bad from Rt. 108- but actually riding the lift showed just how bad. Basically, below 2500', it's just gone- there's no real snowpack- some trails are just patches, the woods are a bit better- likely due to the fact that we had such fluff fall, it was blown around (scoured trails), and then it rained. I'd be psyched for 6" of mash taters. that would be a godsend. 6" of crap snow- that's the prayer these days... no where to go but up from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Drinking is a powerful tool to lift spirits , also the models start to look better w beer goggles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 I tried scotts advice saturday and i can tell you it made for a rough sunday............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 39f. Ugh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 That's a perfect analogy, haha. Like the Sox reference. I know it seems like just me because I post the most on here out of the NNE crowd, but that's really the mood of the skiers in this area. Mad River Valley residents are hanging from bridges (MRG constantly posting to folks to start doing anything they can think of to get it to snow), at Stowe and Smugglers Notch people are sacrificing animals, even Jay Peak actually flipped off Mother Nature on their snow report, the Champlain Valley has lost interest for the time being (ADK only coming to the mountain a couple times a week instead of daily?). We have been really spoiled in the last decade is what it comes down to. And it's not just the ski areas. Snowmobiling is shut down, Nordic ski areas can't operate, no snowshoeing, no dog sled tours, very little sliding for the kids etc. And to top it all off, we haven't even had the benefit of warm temps to keep the heating costs down. I know that most in SNE would say "cry me a river" but it is sucky so far. I'm optimistic that things will change but will believe it when it actually happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VtWxWatcher Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Just hit 32F. Don't need anymore ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 And it's not just the ski areas. Snowmobiling is shut down, Nordic ski areas can't operate, no snowshoeing, no dog sled tours, very little sliding for the kids etc. And to top it all off, we haven't even had the benefit of warm temps to keep the heating costs down. I know that most in SNE would say "cry me a river" but it is sucky so far. I'm optimistic that things will change but will believe it when it actually happens.Maine Jayhawk FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Maine Jayhawk FTW LOL. I was just venting a little. It's not like there is anything we can do about the situation. We are normally so blessed with good winter weather that these marginal ones can be painful. One thing I know is that if the mets and experienced hobbyists such as yourself are optimistic for this area, then I should be as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skivt2 Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 100% agree. People at Killington are trying to be positive but when the best news is that most of the yellow frozen cat tracks on the snowmaking trails have been ground into submission and the golf ball chunks are a positive because they provide traction it's grim. Pico had essentially 3 trails open Sunday (one green and 2 blues) There is absolutely no snow at all in the woods or on the natural trails. One storm won't do it. We need multiple storms with layered settling to make a difference. You begin to wonder how we can accumulate the necessary 24" of compacted/settled snow in the woods to make them skiable. Even one 2 foot crusher would not do it alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 LOL. I was just venting a little. It's not like there is anything we can do about the situation. We are normally so blessed with good winter weather that these marginal ones can be painful. One thing I know is that if the mets and experienced hobbyists such as yourself are optimistic for this area, then I should be as well.Lol, it's all we can do is laugh for now. I suggest you mosey on over to the main wx page and read the Medium range thread and Don S's post , it's exactly what I think. But I do this for fun, thanks for the acknowledgement. Will and Scooter are awesome with the medium range stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 I think a lot of us feel that way. Oh look, another freezing rain advisory! What ever happened to the cutters or mixed events that started as a few inches of snow, then mix then rain? We have had so much freezing rain this winter it's incredible. It's like, "oh, well liquid will fall from the sky, you can't change it, it's just whether or not it's freezing rain or just rain." Those pinkish hues sure have been showing up on the advisories maps a lot as of late: However, our graphical point forecast here is starting to take on a better look, trending toward more of a “snow up high, mix down low”, instead of “rain up high, freezing rain down low”: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 It's pretty bad when I stay back in ny. Keep the faith. Hopefully we've hit rock bottom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 That's a perfect analogy, haha. Like the Sox reference. I know it seems like just me because I post the most on here out of the NNE crowd, but that's really the mood of the skiers in this area. Mad River Valley residents are hanging from bridges (MRG constantly posting to folks to start doing anything they can think of to get it to snow), at Stowe and Smugglers Notch people are sacrificing animals, even Jay Peak actually flipped off Mother Nature on their snow report, the Champlain Valley has lost interest for the time being (ADK only coming to the mountain a couple times a week instead of daily?). We have been really spoiled in the last decade is what it comes down to. A great recapitulation! This winter has the NNE crowd bummin because it's been the worst of everything. in 2011-2012, it didn't snow much but the CPV was also a lot warmer. I remember running on unfrozen dirt trails in january and my friends mountain biking in essex around the same time. Can't do that this winter. Everything is covered by 2-6 inches of glaze ice. Also 2006-2007 was simply devoid of action. Not this winter. There have been big storms. They have just been rain storms. It is easier to swallow no snow when that means no weather. Not so much when no snow means rain. As for pattern changes....I'll believe it when forecasted dustings turn out to be 3-5" up top. Right now stuff is going the other way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 No ZR this time, it's already in the upper 30s. Each model run on gfs looks warmer than the last, with the cooldown perhaps approaching normal. Still -8 for the month, however, and I don't mind not having to fill the woodbox twice a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Evidently, btv is taking the same tack. SNOW SHOWERS. MOISTURE`S VERY LIMITED WITH ANY OF THESE FEATURES SO NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN A DUSTING TO POSSIBLY AN INCH OR TWO ON THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE REMAINS HINTS AT A COASTAL SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY...AND IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO OFFER A MORE ROBUST AND WESTERN TRACK...BUT THE SOLUTION REMAINS AN OUTLIER AMONGST ALL OTHER GUIDANCE SO HAVE CONTINUED TO FAVOR AN EASTERLY TRACK WITH NO IMPACT ON THE NORTH COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN MILD TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND HIGHS IN THE 30S THROUGH SATURDAY...TRENDING TOWARDS NORMAL THEREAFTER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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