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NNE Winter 2013-14 Part 2


klw

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In all seriousness, what percentage is the euro right on d5 predictions?

just from my laymans observations, I would guess, less than a third.

 

I would probably have it a little higher, Up until recently, You could take hr 96 or less almost to the bank, There was an upgrade to the model i think it was back last year sometime and it has had some issues, But i would still weigh it more over the GFS

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I remind you that 4 days out the Euro had the latest rain storm as a wonderful dump for the N/E.  Whoops. 

 

Seriously...I'm not buying a single model run that shows cold and snow until this pattern changes. 

 

It just doesn't want to snow right now. It wants to ice and rain. 

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I would probably have it a little higher, Up until recently, You could take hr 96 or less almost to the bank, There was an upgrade to the model i think it was back last year sometime and it has had some issues, But i would still weigh it more over the GFS

Iirc last year the euro had d5 storms repeatedly and they never panned out.  I might be totally wrong but that's my recollection.

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there is nothing in my point/click through the wknd to get excited about. Tomorrow:

AREAS OF DENSE FOG IN THE MORNING. RAIN. VISIBILITY ONEQUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES IN THE MORNING. HIGHS IN THE LOWER40S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH IN THE MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT ANDVARIABLE. CHANCE OF RAIN 90 PERCENT.

Getting tired of the rain/fog. :axe:

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Though I rarely post in SNE threads, I do read them thoroughly, so I understand what's driven the cold so far and that we don't absolutely need a -NAO for decent winter weather up here.  That said, in looking at the past few months, we haven't had any real blocking since mid-October.  How unusual is it for the NAO to remain in one phase for so long?

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Though I rarely post in SNE threads, I do read them thoroughly, so I understand what's driven the cold so far and that we don't absolutely need a -NAO for decent winter weather up here.  That said, in looking at the past few months, we haven't had any real blocking since mid-October.  How unusual is it for the NAO to remain in one phase for so long?

 

Not at all unusual. You can go months with a predominant phase. There may be a few days to a week where it temporarily goes in the opposite phase, but nothing uncommon here.

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I remind you that 4 days out the Euro had the latest rain storm as a wonderful dump for the N/E. Whoops.

Seriously...I'm not buying a single model run that shows cold and snow until this pattern changes.

It just doesn't want to snow right now. It wants to ice and rain.

I think a lot of us feel that way. Oh look, another freezing rain advisory! What ever happened to the cutters or mixed events that started as a few inches of snow, then mix then rain? We have had so much freezing rain this winter it's incredible. It's like, "oh, well liquid will fall from the sky, you can't change it, it's just whether or not it's freezing rain or just rain."

It must be that -EPO dumping low level cold into the area, while the positive NAO allows mid level warmth to cruise north unabated. Every precip event seems to have much warmer air aloft than at the surface this season...even when it was snowing at -5F, it was like 20F at 9,000ft.

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I think a lot of us feel that way. Oh look, another freezing rain advisory! What ever happened to the cutters or mixed events that started as a few inches of snow, then mix then rain? We have had so much freezing rain this winter it's incredible. It's like, "oh, well liquid will fall from the sky, you can't change it, it's just whether or not it's freezing rain or just rain."

It must be that -EPO dumping low level cold into the area, while the positive NAO allows mid level warmth to cruise north unabated. Every precip event seems to have much warmer air aloft than at the surface this season...even when it was snowing at -5F, it was like 20F at 9,000ft.

Leon!

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