J.Spin Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 It’s definitely icy out there, but we’ve gone just above freezing now, so hopefully the roads will start to improve. Surprisingly, there hasn’t been much discussion about that potential Tuesday storm on here and the discrepancy that existed between the ECMWF and the GFS. The BTV NWS discussion talked about it a bit yesterday: .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 237 PM EST FRIDAY...ACTIVE WX PATTERN LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK WITH GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUING THEIR DISCREPANCIES ON EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF MEAN CENTRAL CONUS UPPER MERIDIONAL TROUGH AND THE TRACK/INTENSITY OF A POTENTIAL SECONDARY STORM SYSTEM TUE/TUE NIGHT. AT THIS TIME I`LL LEAN MORE STRONGLY TOWARD THE SLOWER/DEEPER EURO/UKMET/HPC SOLUTIONS GIVEN GFS`S INHERENT BIAS TOWARD MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW DURING HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW REGIMES. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT AFTER A BRIEF RESPITE ON MONDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES...A RETURN TO MORE INCLEMENT/RAINY WEATHER IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY BY TUESDAY AS RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST FROM THE TENNESSEE RVR VALLEY ACROSS OR JUST WEST OF OUR AREA. A third one of these types of storms would represent a lot more liquid precipitation on the snowpack, which would be notably different than what the GFS was showing. However, as of the overnight runs, it sure looks to me like the ECMWF prognostication is more in line with the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Yeah, super icey out there this morning. I monitor a couple local town listservs and I'm catching reports of municipal trucks sliding down hills sideways....with chains on. 32F and creeping up to 33F..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hvysnow79 Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Yeah, super icey out there this morning. I monitor a couple local town listservs and I'm catching reports of municipal trucks sliding down hills sideways....with chains on. 32F and creeping up to 33F..... I just got into work and that was by far one of the more scary rides in...pure ice out there and that was the main roads. There was sections that tire marks had kicked up a bit of slush then others that was nothing but smooth ice with zero traction!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 I just got into work and that was by far one of the more scary rides in...pure ice out there and that was the main roads. There was sections that tire marks had kicked up a bit of slush then others that was nothing but smooth ice with zero traction!!! Good luck, man. Luckily I don't have to go anywhere for a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 It’s definitely icy out there, but we’ve gone just above freezing now, so hopefully the roads will start to improve. Surprisingly, there hasn’t been much discussion about that potential Tuesday storm on here and the discrepancy that existed between the ECMWF and the GFS. The BTV NWS discussion talked about it a bit yesterday: .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 237 PM EST FRIDAY...ACTIVE WX PATTERN LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK WITH GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUING THEIR DISCREPANCIES ON EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF MEAN CENTRAL CONUS UPPER MERIDIONAL TROUGH AND THE TRACK/INTENSITY OF A POTENTIAL SECONDARY STORM SYSTEM TUE/TUE NIGHT. AT THIS TIME I`LL LEAN MORE STRONGLY TOWARD THE SLOWER/DEEPER EURO/UKMET/HPC SOLUTIONS GIVEN GFS`S INHERENT BIAS TOWARD MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW DURING HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW REGIMES. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT AFTER A BRIEF RESPITE ON MONDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES...A RETURN TO MORE INCLEMENT/RAINY WEATHER IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY BY TUESDAY AS RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST FROM THE TENNESSEE RVR VALLEY ACROSS OR JUST WEST OF OUR AREA. A third one of these types of storms would represent a lot more liquid precipitation on the snowpack, which would be notably different than what the GFS was showing. However, as of the overnight runs, it sure looks to me like the ECMWF prognostication is more in line with the GFS. By their description it could be yet another cutter if goes west. Not much to talk about if that happens. However the Euro verbatim would give us a few inches of snow on Wed night into Thu of next week with a low tracking over NYC/LI then across southeastern New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Worst road conditions I've ever seen on RT 108 in Stowe at 5:30am. There were three seperate accidents/cars off the road within a 100 yard stretch of Pumphouse Hill near the VT State Ski Dorms up here around that time. The road ended up being closed for at least a half hour by VTrans. Stowe PD was too busy to respond, as they had closures on RT 100. Nothing like when someone calls the police and they say if no one is injured they cannot respond at this time. RT 100 closed between Stowe-Waterbury... I89 closed between Richmond-Waterbury, as well as down near Exit 7. This was 5:30am...the few cars out at that time were all off the road. I've never seen a road this slick. The first photo you can see the shine on the road...that was just clear pond ice, you couldn't even walk on it. I then watched someone slide all the way down the hill on his backside when he lost his footing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 AWESOME!. Wait. No. A mutual friend of PF and I passed this adage to me in November: "If the ice in november will support a duck the rest of winter will be nothing but rain and muck. " Them ol' timers sometimes have something. Nothing beats 48 and raining after a few days of zero degree temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 By their description it could be yet another cutter if goes west. Not much to talk about if that happens. However the Euro verbatim would give us a few inches of snow on Wed night into Thu of next week with a low tracking over NYC/LI then across southeastern New England. Agreed, it just seemed like the ECMWF had shown a large storm heading over us or to the west for a lot of consecutive runs, and with the way people seem to feel about these storms, I would have expected to hear some talk about the different look. Naturally we’ll have to see how things play out going forward. I’m actually amazed sometimes at the amount of storms that produce snow around here, since realistically, if you live in a place where storms can only go to one side of you and produce a desirable result, then there should be a lot of storms that end up giving the alternative. I guess the mountains can buck this trend somewhat, but realistically, for storms that travel to the west of the area, it would seem like we deserve every one of them that we get based on the odds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Yeah my road was the worst I've ever seen it. 93 wasn't much better. As I got near CON it improved a bit, but from exit 19 to 16 it was ridiculously bad. They didn't even pretreat with salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Roads are still just opening up in Stowe after 3 hour closures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Still at 33 here with showery rain coming through from time to time. Main slug out in western NY doesn't look too-too terrible. Trying to remain positive. Just took the dog for a walk up our road/driveway. Not sure I could get out if I had to.... A mutual friend of PF and I passed this adage to me in November: "If the ice in november will support a duck the rest of winter will be nothing but rain and muck. " Them ol' timers sometimes have something. LOL, I've written this very adage on this forum before. Not sure I qualify as an old-timer just yet but I'm sure on my way. Better times ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 First weekend and my condo in Bartlett. Great spot at about 850 ft with a great view over the valley and Mt Washington (well, not today). So great to be here. Very icy this morning... let it snow! Enough of this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Only getting worse................. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 This is why I prefer NH or ME vs VT. I know VT can avg more snow especially north of MPV, but once snow falls..it does not want to melt in interior NH or ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 This is why I prefer NH or ME vs VT. I know VT can avg more snow especially north of MPV, but once snow falls..it does not want to melt in interior NH or ME. I don't think my ice encased pack is going to go away anytime soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 I don't think my ice encased pack is going to go away anytime soon You guys have your own private little snowpack anomaly right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 You guys have your own private little snowpack anomaly right now. For a while. It will easily survive cutter #2, but if the more pessimistic models verify next week, I'm less confident of its withstanding cutters # 3,4,... hyperbole, I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ono Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 You guys have your own private little snowpack anomaly right now. Champlain valley is still holding strong with 5-6" of glacier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 This is why I prefer NH or ME vs VT. I know VT can avg more snow especially north of MPV, but once snow falls..it does not want to melt in interior NH or ME. Yeah...I really love avoiding most torches. It's another world in the foothills of ME and NH sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 This is why I prefer NH or ME vs VT. I know VT can avg more snow especially north of MPV, but once snow falls..it does not want to melt in interior NH or ME. It's tough to scour out in the part of VT most of the time. We'll survive this with cover, albeit reduced. Western VT is a different story though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Upslope signal actually looks pretty dang good for a period of heavy snow tomorrow 5-7" along the northern spine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 This is why I prefer NH or ME vs VT. I know VT can avg more snow especially north of MPV, but once snow falls..it does not want to melt in interior NH or ME. Depends where you are too. Allenson's area is very hard to scour out and does the snowpack thing. Up here it's harder to hold cold but the east slopes of the Greens do it just like the east slopes of the Berks, same real mountain chain. Ie it's near 50F on the west slope of Mansfield and mid 40s summit, but 33F at 2,600ft east side, 35F at 1500ft with 38F in town. I do enjoy from a ski perspective the combo of good cold holding aspect on Mansfield's east side, coupled with the snowfall (except this season, haha). I have found for whatever reason that the folks on this board that are further east (like you eastern Mass guys) tend to relate much more to NH/ME or gravitate to that side of NNE...while western Mass and CT posters like Ryan/MPM/Hippie relate more to VT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Upslope signal actually looks pretty dang good for a period of heavy snow tomorrow 5-7" along the northern spine That would be much appreciated. I'm not that sold yet, but think 1-3" at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Everyte I look out the window, I feel like borrowing one of PF's reindeer sweaters and looking for a good tree .At least the ice is just about gone from my driveway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nittany88 Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 That would be much appreciated. I'm not that sold yet, but think 1-3" at this point. Yeah unblocked, short-lived, and drying out aloft. Wouldn't expect anything big although it may be snowing at a good clip for a small window around 12z. Lol BTV4 WRF goes apes**t with 0.80" at Mansfield and 1.76" at Jay Peak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Nice upslope signal on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Yeah unblocked, short-lived, and drying out aloft. Wouldn't expect anything big although it may be snowing at a good clip for a small window around 12z. Lol BTV4 WRF goes apes**t with 0.80" at Mansfield and 1.76" at Jay Peak. Sounds about right for the BTV4, lol. At this point anything would be appreciated...even 2" to cosmetically clean up the landscape. I have running water moving through my yard on TOP of the snowpack. It's creating a nice pond in the neighbors yard, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CardinalWinds Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 It's 47° at the MPV airport at 1200' with open flat fields and 38° imby at 875' surrounded by nooks, crannies, hills and woods...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Coming up on 5" below normal on snow at BTV on the season. We are about a foot behind what we had at this point last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Pouring rain again. Looks like the front is in C NY. 31.9F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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