NNE Winter 2013-14 Part 2

[N. OF PIKE]

Just not a good winter is really the only way to look at it. Essentially the fear you always have in the back of your head... the brutal cold/dry mixed with rainstorms.

It wouldn't be nearly as frustrating (it would just be downright awful, but not frustrating) if it wasn't getting down to -20F between the rainstorms, haha.

It is sort of comical that the big cities are generally above normal snowfall wise while stowe mtn is quite below

I mean even so, its not like theres a competition in the least but it shows the dis-connect between the cp and mtns. Low landers prob think there is a "ton of snow" up north. So don't ruin that illusion they prob have .

[Ginx snewx]

Just not a good winter is really the only way to look at it. Essentially the fear you always have in the back of your head... the brutal cold/dry mixed with rainstorms.

It wouldn't be nearly as frustrating (it would just be downright awful, but not frustrating) if it wasn't getting down to -20F between the rainstorms, haha.

its freaking Jan 9th

[tamarack]

I'm just hoping we don't get into a cycle from cutter to OTS and back again, like last Jan and almost all of 2011-12.

[powderfreak]

its freaking Jan 9th

 

Correct.  That's a good date.

 

The issue is that I'm pretty sure we are punting January.  There's no way snowfall gets made up this month, which averages around 80".  Honestly we'll be lucky to get half that.  Feb and March can still turn it around.  Come on lucky Spring of 2007.

[powderfreak]

It is sort of comical that the big cities are generally above normal snowfall wise while stowe mtn is quite below

I mean even so, its not like theres a competition in the least but it shows the dis-connect between the cp and mtns. Low landers prob think there is a "ton of snow" up north. So don't ruin that illusion they prob have .

 

All the mountains in VT are quite below...but cpick, the big cities average snowfall is low enough during the first quarter to first half of winter, that all it takes is 1 or 2 good storms (like they had) to get above normal.  Further south, in the mid-Atlantic they can go above normal for the season with one big storm.  Of course, comparing averages and departures is the only way we can compare the different locations, but while one or two good storms puts BOS-PVD-NYC area above normal in snowfall for early January, we require like 4 to 5 good storms to get above normal, lol. 

[powderfreak]

I forgot to add I was surprised at the 1-2" that fell on the mountain last night... only 0.2" at the house, that promptly sublimated by noon, but there was definitely a little something to push around on the ski trails. 

 

The odd thing is that 1-2" is now a "surprise" snowfall when in some years you don't even blink at 1-2"...and the overnight surprises are more like 6-8", haha. 

[Nittany88]

Just not a good winter is really the only way to look at it.  Essentially the fear you always have in the back of your head... the brutal cold/dry mixed with rainstorms.

 

It wouldn't be nearly as frustrating (it would just be downright awful, but not frustrating) if it wasn't getting down to -20F between the rainstorms, haha.

 

Oh yeah give me mild temps (relatively) and snow over this BS dry cold and ice crap any day.

[J.Spin]

All the mountains in VT are quite below...but cpick, the big cities average snowfall is low enough during the first quarter to first half of winter, that all it takes is 1 or 2 good storms (like they had) to get above normal.  Further south, in the mid-Atlantic they can go above normal for the season with one big storm.  Of course, comparing averages and departures is the only way we can compare the different locations, but while one or two good storms puts BOS-PVD-NYC area above normal in snowfall for early January, we require like 4 to 5 good storms to get above normal, lol.

 

At least on a seasonal level, I’m going to contend that we really can’t complain much yet.  For my location I’ve got snowfall as of today at 76.7% of average, and nowhere near even one standard deviation below the mean (it’s roughly a half standard deviation on the low side right now).  Also, some appreciation for the snowfall this season (48.6”) can be found by comparing it to some other recent seasons.  This season is absolutely smoking 2006-2007 (22.2” as of this date) and is still ahead of 2011-2012 as well (42.1” as of this date), so we’ve clearly had some snow.  November obviously helped.  We will have to watch though, because those seasons added somewhat in January, even if they were still sub-par Januarys with ~30” of snow.  We’ve had just 4.5” for the month so far here, so there’s a long way to go to get to even that sort of a monthly total.

 

Along with the snowfall, the 6” of snowpack in the yard actually beats where the snowpack was at this point in those two seasons (~4.5”) – not to mention the fact that this snowpack we have right now is super dense and contains a boat load of liquid.  Much to my chagrin, I had some extra time this morning, so I actually cored the snowpack for liquid and let it melt through the day.  I’ll report on that in a bit.  I’d really like to see where things stand for snowfall and snowpack when we hit the nadir before the next notable snowstorm storm though.  The mountains have got to be experiencing a larger deficiency than the valleys at the moment, the Mt. Mansfield data from Nittany are pretty striking.  It will be interesting to see where that bottoms out.

[N. OF PIKE]

The issue is that I'm pretty sure we are punting January.

Your friends at Americanwx want to know if u are unwell?

Or is this just the next step in setting the bar so low (expecting to "punt" Jan) to rig some sort of positive out of this. Lol

And i def get that about sne only needin a cpl decent storms to go above, i guess the bigger surprise would be that this has been done w a +AO/NAO bc most years u do a bit better relatively speaking then sne w a +nao

[J.Spin]

As I mentioned in my previous post, I cored the snowpack here today for water analysis.  I used my standard plastic gauge, and as challenging as the previous analysis was on Saturday, this one was probably twice as difficult.  The snowpack is comprised of layers of ice, separated by snow that is either frozen or loose granular.  Trying to core it with the plastic gauge is frustrating for a number of reasons.  First, it’s hard to even penetrate it.  After spending a few minutes in one spot trying to grind my way into the surface of the pack by rotating the gauge, I gave up and switched to a new spot.  Fortunately, that one eventually yielded, but of course there’s another tough layer like that in the middle of the pack.  Then, once you have reached the ground, you can’t simply pull the gauge straight back up and expect the core to stay in it the way it does with more typical snow.  The core stays right where it is on the ground because it’s all comprised of granular snow and ice that doesn’t compress at all or adhere to the sides of the funnel.  Also, if you were to pull the gauge out and leave the core in place, the loose granular layers in there, which are essentially like coarse sugar, will collapse and mix with the surrounding snowpack and ruin the core.  So finally, in order to get down to the bottom of the snowpack to cap the bottom of the gauge and remove it with the core intact, you have to dig through enough of the snow to make space for your hands down there.  However, as you dig, the loose granular layers are constantly pouring in on the hole you are making, filling it with what seems like an unending supply of sugary snow.  Oh and of course, even digging through the rock-hard layers with your hands is nearly impossible.  Clearly I need an Adirondack snow sampler of something like that under these conditions.

 

Anyway, after all that, indeed this latest event appears to have been a net gain in liquid in the snowpack as people had been discussing.  On Saturday, before the storm, the liquid in the snowpack was 2.41”, and today’s analysis revealed 2.70”.  Unfortunately, I don’t think there’s much to be gained in the snowpack at our location from this next storm  – the snowpack is so dense and saturated that any rain is just going to percolate through or run off.  Anyway, thanks to the layers of ice in there, this is certainly one of the densest snowpacks I’ve encountered.

[powderfreak]

Your friends at Americanwx want to know if u are unwell?

Or is this just the next step in setting the bar so low (expecting to "punt" Jan) to rig some sort of positive out of this. Lol

Yep, setting the bar quite low for this month.

All emotions aside...I just don't see much positive stuff through MLK weekend. After that, who knows for those last 10 days, but I think it's a lock that the next ten days are significantly below average snowfall. It's not b*itching or anything...just what I'm seeing.

[powderfreak]

The mountains have got to be experiencing a larger deficiency than the valleys at the moment, the Mt. Mansfield data from Nittany are pretty striking. It will be interesting to see where that bottoms out.[/size]

Yeah, 23" and around 50% of normal snowpack, is the 8th worst in what 60 years? I think that's what's driving me crazy. It's not so much the valley snowfall as it is at the mountains. I always look at it this way...the northern Greens should be clicking 12-24" per week in the higher elevations. January's average would lead to about 18" per week up top. Some years, like 2011, that's no problem at all, and we have like 40-inch weeks.

[Nittany88]

Yeah, 23" and around 50% of normal snowpack, is the 8th worst in what 60 years? I think that's what's driving me crazy. It's not so much the valley snowfall as it is at the mountains. I always look at it this way...the northern Greens should be clicking 12-24" per week in the higher elevations. January's average would lead to about 18" per week up top. Some years, like 2011, that's no problem at all, and we have like 40-inch weeks.

 

 

Even in the valley locations its terrible. We've had all this miserable cold, but what do we have to show for it? Some ugly dirty 5" thick glacial piece of ice that you can't do anything on or with. It's the ugliest and most useless snowpack I've seen.

[CardinalWinds]

What's left of our 5" ice pack after this weekend? 

[eyewall]

What's left of our 5" ice pack after this weekend? 

 

Good question. It is certainly a rock out there and my driveway is a skating rink. I am sure we will see it at least go to patches before the warm spell ends though.

[adk]

At least on a seasonal level, I’m going to contend that we really can’t complain much yet.  For my location I’ve got snowfall as of today at 76.7% of average, and nowhere near even one standard deviation below the mean (it’s roughly a half standard deviation on the low side right now).  Also, some appreciation for the snowfall this season (48.6”) can be found by comparing it to some other recent seasons.  This season is absolutely smoking 2006-2007 (22.2” as of this date) and is still ahead of 2011-2012 as well (42.1” as of this date), so we’ve clearly had some snow.  November obviously helped.  We will have to watch though, because those seasons added somewhat in January, even if they were still sub-par Januarys with ~30” of snow.  We’ve had just 4.5” for the month so far here, so there’s a long way to go to get to even that sort of a monthly total.

 

Along with the snowfall, the 6” of snowpack in the yard actually beats where the snowpack was at this point in those two seasons (~4.5”) – not to mention the fact that this snowpack we have right now is super dense and contains a boat load of liquid.  Much to my chagrin, I had some extra time this morning, so I actually cored the snowpack for liquid and let it melt through the day.  I’ll report on that in a bit.  I’d really like to see where things stand for snowfall and snowpack when we hit the nadir before the next notable snowstorm storm though.  The mountains have got to be experiencing a larger deficiency than the valleys at the moment, the Mt. Mansfield data from Nittany are pretty striking.  It will be interesting to see where that bottoms out.

 

What makes this season bad is not the total volume of snow. Rather it is the fact that what is down is simply a bullet-proof shield of ice.  I'd live with a lean snow-pack assuming it was actually snow.  The snow that's down now isn't skiable. You can't nordic ski. You can't explore BC terrain. Heck, you can't even snowshoe.  It's a skating rink. That truly sucks the joy out of winter fun. 

 

And yes, you are at least punting the first half of january. That is for sure. 

 

I said in November after I skied knee deep snow on the front four that "this is the best we might have this season..."  I didn't know I was going to be right. 

[powderfreak]

0F at MVL and 20F at BTV. Larger than normal difference, thanks to southerly winds in the valley.

[SJonesWX]

its freaking Jan 9th

this is peak ski season. holiday weekend coming up, which is traditionally very busy for ski areas.

[J.Spin]

Awesome!  Where did you find that?  I've been looking for that trailer for a while.  I remember when I first came up here and was debating about what mountain to buy a pass at (long before my involvement at Stowe) and someone posted that trailer and said, "this is why you want to ski Stowe/Mansfield..."  I remember that vividly and that was why I chose Mount Mansfield that first year at UVM.

 

I’m just putting this here PF to not go overly off topic in the weather thread for the upcoming storm, but you can thank the SkiVT-L archives (October, 2003) for being able to find that movie trailer.  Indeed you were right about the thread touting Stowe as a ski mountain; it was even part of the thread title…

 

This is why the party is at Stowe...

 

Anyway, you chose wisely as you are no doubt aware.  When considered from a pure skiing perspective (acreage, vertical, sidecountry and backcountry access, natural snow quality, snowfall, terrain, infrastructure, etc., etc.) there’s really not another mountain/resort east of the Rockies that is in the running for the overall top spot from the perspective of a demanding expert, off piste skier.  Arguments can definitely be made for other resorts in an individual category or two, but if you break it down to just the two most important things, natural terrain and snowfall, it’s no contest.  Those factors are immutable, and there’s nothing that another resort can do to change them.  For snowfall, the other three resorts in the Northern Greens are the only ones even in the running, and then throw in Mansfield’s terrain above tree line, and that quickly seals the deal.

[J.Spin]

Let's look at it this way too...JSpin has been averaging 40.5" at 500ft in Waterbury, VT for January's he's lived at his location. Not a long period of record, but we work with what we are given. Translate that to a better orographic position and at over 3000ft.

 

I put this response here, since it looks like this conversation was off topic in the other thread:

 

I’m glad you referenced that PF; I was going to bring the data up if you didn’t.  If we’re averaging 40” down in the valley at 500’, you know there’s a lot more falling up on the mountain.  In general, I find that the high elevations of the Bolton/Stowe stretch up above us runs around 2X what I record for snowfall.  My data are typically a mix of 6, 12, and 24-hour measurements vs. the mountain’s that are probably in the 12-hour range, but 2X is the ratio that generally seems to come out.  Of course, with last January coming in at the lowest in my records at just 20.9”, and this January so far doing its best to get in under that one, it’s not helping the month’s snowfall averages.

[powderfreak]

I put this response here, since it looks like this conversation was off topic in the other thread:

I’m glad you referenced that PF; I was going to bring the data up if you didn’t. If we’re averaging 40” down in the valley at 500’, you know there’s a lot more falling up on the mountain. In general, I find that the high elevations of the Bolton/Stowe stretch up above us runs around 2X what I record for snowfall. My data are typically a mix of 6, 12, and 24-hour measurements vs. the mountain’s that are probably in the 12-hour range, but 2X is the ratio that generally seems to come out. Of course, with last January coming in at the lowest in my records at just 20.9”, and this January so far doing its best to get in under that one, it’s not helping the month’s snowfall averages.

And to prove your 2x theory, last January saw only 39" at the 3000ft snow board, compared to your 20.9".

This January may really make us work to hit those levels.

[eyewall]

Well at least it is snowing a little this morning.

[Hitman]

What makes this season bad is not the total volume of snow. Rather it is the fact that what is down is simply a bullet-proof shield of ice.  I'd live with a lean snow-pack assuming it was actually snow.  The snow that's down now isn't skiable. You can't nordic ski. You can't explore BC terrain. Heck, you can't even snowshoe.  It's a skating rink. That truly sucks the joy out of winter fun. 

 

And yes, you are at least punting the first half of january. That is for sure. 

 

I said in November after I skied knee deep snow on the front four that "this is the best we might have this season..."  I didn't know I was going to be right.

Step away from the ledge!

We had it good from thanksgiving through the grinch storm. Been rough since then, but the worm will turn. I'm sitting this weekend out to take care of work, errands etc. On the bright side, if there is any winter weekend to be crappy, it is this one. Lots of good football games on tv. Reload, recharge and dream of vertically stacked lows spinning in the Canadian maritimes?

[Allenson]

Well, had one more cold night getting down to -6.7 though up to +3 by 7am obs time.

 

A few flakes on the ride into work, skies now brightening a bit.

 

Tomorrow gon' suck.

[tamarack]

Reached -15 at my cold pocket.  Looks like the last I'll see of that stuff for a week or two.  In fact, the gfs 16-day runs have been so snow-poor lately that this Jan may compete with last year's abysmal 5.7" for worst Jan snowfall, unless the last week has something in store.

 

Perhaps a reference point for PF's snowfall records:  Over the past dozen or so yr, Mansfield COOP has been running about 8% higher than its 1981-2010 avg for yearly snowfall, but has been a little bit under their 30-yr avg for Jan snow.  Assuming PF's 3100' snowfall has been proportionally higher than Mansfield for the most part, that 76" in Jan seems to be valid.

[gravitylover]

What makes this season bad is not the total volume of snow. Rather it is the fact that what is down is simply a bullet-proof shield of ice.  I'd live with a lean snow-pack assuming it was actually snow.  The snow that's down now isn't skiable. You can't nordic ski. You can't explore BC terrain. Heck, you can't even snowshoe.  It's a skating rink. That truly sucks the joy out of winter fun. 

 

And yes, you are at least punting the first half of january. That is for sure. 

 

I said in November after I skied knee deep snow on the front four that "this is the best we might have this season..."  I didn't know I was going to be right. 

But it is prime for a good fatbike ride.  You just need the right toy 

[ApacheTrout]

The ice is so  thick on the snowpack in the Champlain Valley that I told my kids that I saw someone ice fishing on the farmer's field in Bridport yesterday.  Crazy.

[MainePhotog]

Freezing rain advisories up for all of the GYX zones.

[J.Spin]

Event totals: 0.2” Snow/0.01” L.E.

 

Today we picked up 0.2” of snow from the weak disturbance embedded in the southwest flow.

 

Details from the 10:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 0.2 inches

New Liquid: 0.01 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 20.0

Snow Density: 5.0% H2O

Temperature: 27.5 F

Sky: Cloudy

Snow at the stake: 6.0 inches

[J.Spin]

Here’s the latest advisories map from the BTV NWS, with a combination of Freezing Rain Advisories and Flood Watches:

 

 

It’s an intriguing color combination that we don’t see too often, but hopefully we’ll soon be back into the rose pink and light blue of Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories.