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18z Model Thread


Blizzardo

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.75 at 15 to 1 could get vis below quarter of a mile and winds may get to 25 mph sustained for 6 hours onto long island .I think Nassau and Suffolk County are a step away from reaching blizzard criteria. They really are only a step away when u see what's at 500 mb

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.75 at 15 to 1 could get vis below quarter of a mile and winds may get to 25 mph sustained for 6 hours onto long island .I think Nassau and Suffolk County are a step away from reaching blizzard criteria. They really are only a step away when u see what's at 500 mb

 

I don't know, those are very hard to verify. Although, this would be a situation where it would be most likely. As long as it would be a dry snow (which is rare here)

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Not to be sarcastic at all, but isn't that why the operational model is the main one to look at?

Yea but normally at sub 60 hours the members start all showing a similar solution. The ensembles are a good tell to what direction the model might head on its subsequent run

Ah ok that makes sense....I've checked out the ensembles, but wasn't really sure at what point they start converging on the same solution

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Yea but normally at sub 60 hours the members start all showing a similar solution. The ensembles are a good tell to what direction the model might head on its subsequent run

not to mention, if you compare the 12GEFS vs the 18GEFS the individual members dont look anything alike..

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I've noticed that on the hi res Nam....the sim radar area of precip appears to be more "bandy" than I thought it would. In general, rather than expecting a solid area of light to moderate snow....we could go light, to mod-heavy, to dry slot, to heavy, etc....which could cause accumulations to REALLY be very different from county to county even

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Yea but normally at sub 60 hours the members start all showing a similar solution. The ensembles are a good tell to what direction the model might head on its subsequent run

 

The ensembles show the sensitivity to changes in initial conditions.  If the initial conditions are correct, then the perturbed ensembles are all going to be wrong.  On the other hand, the initial conditions are never perfect.  That is why the ensembles tell you which way the forecast may head on subsequent runs.  Obviously, this is less valuable in the short range.

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