Heisy Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 4 of the 12 18z GFS individuals are pretty amped up....We've seen stranger things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 This is how it snows around these here parts. Ignore at your own peril. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 This is certainly getting more interesting again. We have seen this roller coaster ride before. Let's hope the 0z models can continue this trend and we certainly could be looking at a lot more snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 The SREFs are 0.75+ for much of NJ into NYC...more for Long Island Can you post the mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Funny when u look on the maps and see what we're getting, and all of the hype....and how the lake effect areas are getting a routine storm that dumps 4 times what it will here lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 The SREFs are 0.75+ for much of NJ into NYC...more for Long Island From 15z? The 21z don't come out until 8:30PM. 15z has 0.50" from about Queens east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 .75 at 15 to 1 could get vis below quarter of a mile and winds may get to 25 mph sustained for 6 hours onto long island .I think Nassau and Suffolk County are a step away from reaching blizzard criteria. They really are only a step away when u see what's at 500 mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 4 of the 12 18z GFS individuals are pretty amped up....We've seen stranger things. here is a visual Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 .75 at 15 to 1 could get vis below quarter of a mile and winds may get to 25 mph sustained for 6 hours onto long island .I think Nassau and Suffolk County are a step away from reaching blizzard criteria. They really are only a step away when u see what's at 500 mb I don't know, those are very hard to verify. Although, this would be a situation where it would be most likely. As long as it would be a dry snow (which is rare here) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 here is a visual Big disparity for 60 hours out, something has to give. 5 of the members are really intense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 here is a visual Big disparity for 60 hours out, something has to give. 5 of the members are really intense. Not to be sarcastic at all, but isn't that why the operational model is the main one to look at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Not to be sarcastic at all, but isn't that why the operational model is the main one to look at? Yea but normally at sub 60 hours the members start all showing a similar solution. The ensembles are a good tell to what direction the model might head on its subsequent run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Not to be sarcastic at all, but isn't that why the operational model is the main one to look at? Yea but normally at sub 60 hours the members start all showing a similar solution. The ensembles are a good tell to what direction the model might head on its subsequent run Ah ok that makes sense....I've checked out the ensembles, but wasn't really sure at what point they start converging on the same solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Yea but normally at sub 60 hours the members start all showing a similar solution. The ensembles are a good tell to what direction the model might head on its subsequent run not to mention, if you compare the 12GEFS vs the 18GEFS the individual members dont look anything alike.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Ah ok that makes sense....I've checked out the ensembles, but wasn't really sure at what point they start converging on the same solution Here you can see the disparity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I've noticed that on the hi res Nam....the sim radar area of precip appears to be more "bandy" than I thought it would. In general, rather than expecting a solid area of light to moderate snow....we could go light, to mod-heavy, to dry slot, to heavy, etc....which could cause accumulations to REALLY be very different from county to county even Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 From the pinned section on model runs does the following: NAM: 9:00, 3:00 (AM/PM) mean 9AM and 9PM And 3AM and 3PM or just one of each? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 From the pinned section on model runs does the following: NAM: 9:00, 3:00 (AM/PM) mean 9AM and 9PM And 3AM and 3PM or just one of each?4 runs total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 4 runs total. THANK YOU! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Yea but normally at sub 60 hours the members start all showing a similar solution. The ensembles are a good tell to what direction the model might head on its subsequent run The ensembles show the sensitivity to changes in initial conditions. If the initial conditions are correct, then the perturbed ensembles are all going to be wrong. On the other hand, the initial conditions are never perfect. That is why the ensembles tell you which way the forecast may head on subsequent runs. Obviously, this is less valuable in the short range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 What did the 18z NAVGEM show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Happy New Years flow weather geeks drinking as skunkin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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