jrodd321 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Why is it that H5 improved but the surface went the wrong direction? Feels like we've been asking this question for like 24 hours straight now. It just doesn't make sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 The surface will catch up , not a lot , but right now NYC and Monmouth County QPF is .4 - Suffolk .7 Just off the CNJ coast is the .6- ..7 , this argues that the precip shield should look a little better and should come NW a bit . Doesn't have to happen , but its close . The NAM and the Euro are .5 . So I think we do a little better than that . .7 on the North Shore of long Island thru this air 10 INCHES PLUS of snow IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 don't get hung up on little qpf changes. that's just noise. the important thing is that the gfs improved aloft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 don't get hung up on little qpf changes. that's just noise. the important thing is that the gfs improved aloftSerious question, I feel like we have been hearing it's been improving a loft for awhile now. Do you personally think this changes much at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 don't get hung up on little qpf changes. that's just noise. the important thing is that the gfs improved aloft Thanks Forky. Your contributions have been awesome the past 24 hours or so. Not because they have been uncharacteristically positive, but because they have been helpful. For most, like me, it's easy to pick up on qpf changes but not as much these types of obs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 So if this is going to deepen enough for us to get to .75 plus , this is prob the window to do , HR 60 - AND HR 66 print out .4 in 12 hours Its during this 6 hour time frame , as the low is deepening aloft does it translate down to the surface . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Serious question, I feel like we have been hearing it's been improving a loft for awhile now. Do you personally think this changes much at this point?tonight's run is pretty much our last hope since all the energy will be ashore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Feels like we've been asking this question for like 24 hours straight now. It just doesn't make sense. Qpf is one of the hardest aspects of a storm to forecast and is often poorly modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 The 4k was picking up some interesting banding over nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 The 4k was picking up some interesting banding over nyc were getting into some of the Hi-Res models wheel houses soon. they should be fairly useful including the HRRR which has been amazing lately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 The 4k was picking up some interesting banding over nyc There'll be at least one run of that model that absolutely detonates and gives us 4 feet of snow. Next run could have 3" QPF overhead, who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Anyone else have the feeling the models come in even better tonight or tomorrow morning? or is it just me a little buzzed right now and feeling good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman9 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Anyone else have the feeling the models come in even better tonight or tomorrow morning? or is it just me a little buzzed right now and feeling good It's the liquor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Anyone else have the feeling the models come in even better tonight or tomorrow morning? or is it just me a little buzzed right now and feeling good Start the NYE drinking early? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 The 4k was picking up some interesting banding over nyc Hmmm...notice that connection going on over the Hudson Valley? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 The 4k was picking up some interesting banding over nyc That's interesting.....looks like 8-12 for that area just west of NYC and 12"+ south of there? Now I actually do like how the NAM picks up on banding. It rarely ever is accurate as to where the band will be....but oftentimes it doe catch on to the orientation of it and the very idea that there WILL BE some type of banding in that area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 The 4k was picking up some interesting banding over nyc Another Monmouth Jackpot?? Check out the TT's and mid-level lapse rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 That's interesting.....looks like 8-12 for that area just west of NYC and 12"+ south of there? Now I actually do like how the NAM picks up on banding. It rarely ever is accurate as to where the band will be....but oftentimes it doe catch on to the orientation of it and the very idea that there WILL BE some type of banding in that area That semi connection that you see there was also on the NAM and GFS for the past few runs. I think they are trying to tell us something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 That's interesting.....looks like 8-12 for that area just west of NYC and 12"+ south of there? Now I actually do like how the NAM picks up on banding. It rarely ever is accurate as to where the band will be....but oftentimes it doe catch on to the orientation of it and the very idea that there WILL BE some type of banding in that area If anything there would be more snow east of NYC over inland correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Its interesting that both the 18Z NAM and GFS have that lead low now popping closer to us off the Delmarva vs the previous ones which popped it way more offshore although they had baginess in the contours much further west indicating they were trying to put it closer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Its interesting that both the 18Z NAM and GFS have that lead low now popping closer to us off the Delmarva vs the previous ones which popped it way more offshore although they had baginess in the contours much further west indicating they were trying to put it closer to the coast. That is a good development thats for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 People watch the buoy readings great tool when in nowcasting starting in 24 hrs. they tell how the system is behaving really cool stuff that gets overlooked sometimes. see ya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Hmmm...notice that connection going on over the Hudson Valley? Could be lake effect bands. The forecast for the lake effect snow belt area is about 2' thru tomorrow. Don't know when the lake will shut down that action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 That's interesting.....looks like 8-12 for that area just west of NYC and 12"+ south of there? Now I actually do like how the NAM picks up on banding. It rarely ever is accurate as to where the band will be....but oftentimes it doe catch on to the orientation of it and the very idea that there WILL BE some type of banding in that area If anything there would be more snow east of NYC over inland correct? Yes the highest totals should definitely be N and E of NYC...of course in SNE, but I'm sure there will be one or two areas that outdoes the rest even in central and northern NJ, by a few inches...and I do think that there will be a dry slot, possibly affecting a large area. I originally was thinking 2-4" for the past few days even when the forecasts went up to 8-12", etc....but I've changed my thinking slightly also. I think 4" would be the lowest we get in the NYC area. A general 4-7" I believe we will receive. On average, the 4" towards NNJ, around 5-6 in NYC, and 7 western LI. Areas that MIGHT get under heavier banding possibly a 2-3 inches more in ANY of these areas. It's been quite a while since moderate snow has fallen into frigid temps in low to mid teens, so the snow will be very fluffy and accumulate very fast. If it was heavier rates....we'd all be easily over a foot. Happy storming to you all and happy new year ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 The wildcard will be where the coastal trough sets up Thursday night. http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/models/view/nam/ttotals/20131231/18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Through hr 60 the gfs mean is pretty wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 GEFS are 0.5"+ NYC east through hr 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Through hr 60 the gfs mean is pretty wet. Allsnow - Check your PMs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 GEFS looks better than 12z, good sign for 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 The SREFs are 0.75+ for much of NJ into NYC...more for Long Island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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