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18z Model Thread


Blizzardo

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gfs_z500_sig_east_12.png

The surface will catch up , not a lot , but right now NYC and Monmouth County QPF is .4 - Suffolk .7

Just off the CNJ coast is the .6- ..7 , this argues that the precip shield should look a little better and should come NW  a bit . Doesn't have to happen , but its close .

The NAM and the Euro are .5 . So I think we do a little better than that .

.7 on the North Shore of long Island thru this air 10 INCHES PLUS of snow IMO

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don't get hung up on little qpf changes. that's just noise. the important thing is that the gfs improved aloft

Thanks Forky. Your contributions have been awesome the past 24 hours or so. Not because they have been uncharacteristically positive, but because they have been helpful. For most, like me, it's easy to pick up on qpf changes but not as much these types of obs...

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gfs_ptype_slp_east_10.png

So if this is going to deepen enough for us to get to .75 plus  , this is prob the window to do , HR 60 - AND HR 66  print out .4 in 12 hours    Its during this 6 hour time frame , as the low is deepening aloft does it translate down to the surface .

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The 4k was picking up some interesting banding over nyc

That's interesting.....looks like 8-12 for that area just west of NYC and 12"+ south of there? Now I actually do like how the NAM picks up on banding. It rarely ever is accurate as to where the band will be....but oftentimes it doe catch on to the orientation of it and the very idea that there WILL BE some type of banding in that area

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That's interesting.....looks like 8-12 for that area just west of NYC and 12"+ south of there? Now I actually do like how the NAM picks up on banding. It rarely ever is accurate as to where the band will be....but oftentimes it doe catch on to the orientation of it and the very idea that there WILL BE some type of banding in that area

 

That semi connection that you see there was also on the NAM and GFS for the past few runs. I think they are trying to tell us something. 

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That's interesting.....looks like 8-12 for that area just west of NYC and 12"+ south of there? Now I actually do like how the NAM picks up on banding. It rarely ever is accurate as to where the band will be....but oftentimes it doe catch on to the orientation of it and the very idea that there WILL BE some type of banding in that area

If anything there would be more snow east of NYC over inland correct?

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Its interesting that both the 18Z NAM and GFS have that lead low now popping closer to us off the Delmarva vs the previous ones which popped it way more offshore although they had baginess in the contours much further west indicating they were trying to put it closer to the coast.

That is a good development thats for sure!

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That's interesting.....looks like 8-12 for that area just west of NYC and 12"+ south of there? Now I actually do like how the NAM picks up on banding. It rarely ever is accurate as to where the band will be....but oftentimes it doe catch on to the orientation of it and the very idea that there WILL BE some type of banding in that area

If anything there would be more snow east of NYC over inland correct?

Yes the highest totals should definitely be N and E of NYC...of course in SNE, but I'm sure there will be one or two areas that outdoes the rest even in central and northern NJ, by a few inches...and I do think that there will be a dry slot, possibly affecting a large area. I originally was thinking 2-4" for the past few days even when the forecasts went up to 8-12", etc....but I've changed my thinking slightly also. I think 4" would be the lowest we get in the NYC area. A general 4-7" I believe we will receive. On average, the 4" towards NNJ, around 5-6 in NYC, and 7 western LI. Areas that MIGHT get under heavier banding possibly a 2-3 inches more in ANY of these areas. It's been quite a while since moderate snow has fallen into frigid temps in low to mid teens, so the snow will be very fluffy and accumulate very fast. If it was heavier rates....we'd all be easily over a foot. Happy storming to you all and happy new year !

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