SnoSki14 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 The Nam often shows explosive snowfall amounts in a nor'easter type storm or one that involves a CCB and banding features. It did that with the February storm last winter and I think the snowfall amounts it printed out with that storm was beyond absurd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 NAVGEM was a candidate for a few runs. NAVGEM it is!! give that model a colt .45 and get it drunk for the new year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shades Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 From experience, NAM usually has a bias of being too far N&W or packing precipitation in tighter gradients than usual with synoptic scale storms. Taking that into consideration, one could see how this is even more of an improvement than meets the eye. Of course, NAM also has a reputation of exaggerating totals by at least 25% with winter storms so one still has to be leery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 The Nam often shows explosive snowfall amounts in a nor'easter type storm or one that involves a CCB and banding features. It did that with the February storm last winter and I think the snowfall amounts it printed out with that storm was beyond absurd. scary thing was though that storm still delivered epic totals on LI that some models had and said it looked far-fetched Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 eh liked it when it was drunk, we had more fun making fun of its shortcoming. if it gets its act together actually we'll have to find another model to bully, any ideas? It is new years eve so perhaps we will see a NAM QPF bomb at 0z.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Northern stream looks more energetic and consolidated through 21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 western ridge slightly more amped through 30, northern stream still more energetic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Slightly more digging now through 39. Very light precip breaking out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Still a little more digging than 12z @ 48, looking better... (More precip from the gulf to work with) (a little warmer than 12z too up here) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 hr 48 light snow for city-east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 light snow hr 51... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Finally mod snow at 57. Dry hole was annoying for hours upon hours! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 hr 57 steady snow... hr 60 steady snow…still not total there yet..slight improvement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
p626808 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 looks closed at 850 at 42 hour. first time I seen that on a model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Definite H5 improvements but totals will be similar to 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 hr 66 idv trough steady snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Seems less qpf than 12z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Seems less qpf than 12z... Yea for the east end it will be the heavier precip misses wide right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 .40" line is near NYC. .50"-.75" for Suffolk County. Sharp cutoff west of EWR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Seems consistency for 3-8" area wide on NAM, GFS and Euro. Anything more would be a bonus and anything less would be disappointing at this point... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Yea for the east end it will be the heavier precip misses wide right It's really not far from a better look. The city east still has abut 0.5" qpf and the upper air presentation again looks better. There definitely should be a response at the surface if that continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Why is it that H5 improved but the surface went the wrong direction? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Why is it that H5 improved but the surface went the wrong direction? Excellent question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 It's really not far from a better look. The city east still has abut 0.5" qpf and the upper air presentation again looks better. There definitely should be a response at the surface if that continues. Yea H5 was better, it just needs to tilt a little faster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Why is it that H5 improved but the surface went the wrong direction? that's what im trying to figure out but if it is indeed true that H5 did improve surface reflection should follow shortly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Less of a sharp cutoff in precip amounts. Looking more and more like an area wide 3-6" if we can pull out better than 10-1 ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Why is it that H5 improved but the surface went the wrong direction? Could be that the Mid Levels are a bit moisture starved. The kicker is also not very sharp, so therefore the SLP is being pushed further east. Not to mention that the heights over the Western Atlantic Ocean are a bit flatter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I remember someone a while back saying that 18z is good to spot trends at 500mb but the surface doesn't catch up til 0z. Doesn't sound logical to me but I clearly remember reading this before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I remember someone a while back saying that 18z is good to spot trends at 500mb but the surface doesn't catch up til 0z. Doesn't sound logical to me but I clearly remember reading this before. There's no question it trended better, and it's really close to something impressive. It's digging more and more and a negative tilt signal is becoming more apparent, so I wouldn't be surprised to see a much improved surface run by 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I remember someone a while back saying that 18z is good to spot trends at 500mb but the surface doesn't catch up til 0z. Doesn't sound logical to me but I clearly remember reading this before. I've noticed this before with the 18z GFS and 0z GFS in past events. No evidence to support that theory though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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