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18z Model Thread


Blizzardo

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From experience, NAM usually has a bias of being too far N&W or packing precipitation in tighter gradients than usual with synoptic scale storms. Taking that into consideration, one could see how this is even more of an improvement than meets the eye. Of course, NAM also has a reputation of exaggerating totals by at least 25% with winter storms so one still has to be leery.

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The Nam often shows explosive snowfall amounts in a nor'easter type storm or one that involves a CCB and banding features. It did that with the February storm last winter and I think the snowfall amounts it printed out with that storm was beyond absurd. 

scary thing was though that storm still delivered epic totals on LI that some models had and said it looked far-fetched

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I remember someone a while back saying that 18z is good to spot trends at 500mb but the surface doesn't catch up til 0z. Doesn't sound logical to me but I clearly remember reading this before.

 

There's no question it trended better, and it's really close to something impressive. It's digging more and more and a negative tilt signal is becoming more apparent, so I wouldn't be surprised to see a much improved surface run by 0z.

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I remember someone a while back saying that 18z is good to spot trends at 500mb but the surface doesn't catch up til 0z. Doesn't sound logical to me but I clearly remember reading this before.

 

I've noticed this before with the 18z GFS and 0z GFS in past events.

 

No evidence to support that theory though.

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