Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Sorry if this is a stupid question I am new to this but when is the precip going to be on land out west, just curious to see if the models are getting a different read if this is on land or over sea thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 and isn't the rule you chop off part of what the nam shows as it almost always is overdone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I hope the gfs follows. The Nam looks close to something even bigger, but it's still a bit out of its range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Upton just put up Winter Storm Watches for 4-8" LOL spoke too soon. Figured they'd wait for sure since its still over 48 hours out for the heaviest snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 and isn't the rule you chop off part of what the nam shows as it almost always is overdone Not always but generally at least one of its runs inside 48 hours shows a qpf bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I hope the gfs follows. The Nam looks close to something even bigger, but it's still a bit out of its range. Yea now we are sampling the energy so hopefully we cant start to iron this out by 0z tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Sorry if this was asked already? But any word on the euro ensemble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 LOL spoke too soon. Figured they'd wait for sure since its still over 48 hours out for the heaviest snows They could be posting a bit early for New years day folks on the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Sorry if this was asked already? But any word on the euro ensemblepretty similar to the op. better aloft but slightly less precip than 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman9 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Not always but generally at least one of its runs inside 48 hours shows a qpf bomb When the NAM shows a QPF bomb it's pretty obvious, this doesn't look like that to me. This actually looks a bit conservative still given the dynamics in play. But who knows, coastal storms were easier to forecast 15 years ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shades Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 LOL spoke too soon. Figured they'd wait for sure since its still over 48 hours out for the heaviest snows It may be that they are taking the holiday into account and realizing that people may not keep tabs of the weather until after NewYears Day, and a head's up with some semblance of forecast totals would be useful in advance. Also, local media outlets can use it as a guide so there's more uniformity to forecast totals rather than meteorologist's going out on their own limb. Also the prolonged nature of the event has to be taken into account, regardless of the snow rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Winter storm watch in effect for Brooklyn ny now till Friday 6pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Here is the 15z SREF output at LGA, better than last night. 21z should be even better after the 18z nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Thanks forkyfork. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I've never looked forward to an 18z gfs more than today for some reason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I don't think it will be that hard to get 4-8" if you measure using a board.. I mean it's going to snow lightly at least for what 24 good hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 When the NAM shows a QPF bomb it's pretty obvious, this doesn't look like that to me. This actually looks a bit conservative still given the dynamics in play. But who knows, coastal storms were easier to forecast 15 years ago There's nothing that stands out that looks off, its similar to the gfs and euro just a tad wetter over western areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I don't think it will be that hard to get 4-8" if you measure using a board.. I mean it's going to snow lightly at least for what 24 good hours lol 18z always seems to be the run that comes up with the first big solution before a big storm lets see if the tradition continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Even all other models show light snow for 24 hours .25" per hour and there you go 6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 lol 18z always seems to be the run that comes up with the first big solution before a big storm lets see if the tradition continues. you got that right. still this storm would not be complete without a NAM QPF bomb, if it does not I will be sorely disappointed in the model seeing a red-tagger anticipate a 18z GFS is pretty funny considering that I think it is the red-headed step child of the GFS family Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 you got that right. still this storm would not be complete without a NAM QPF bomb, if it does not I will be sorely disappointed in the model seeing a red-tagger anticipate a 18z GFS is pretty funny considering that I think it is the red-headed step child of the GFS family The NAM has been much calmer since Christmas. I think it's understanding the synoptics of this winter's weather more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 The NAM has been much calmer since Christmas. I think it's understanding the synoptics of weather more. The NAM has had the same physics. Nothing's changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 The NAM has been much calmer since Christmas. I think it's understanding the synoptics of weather more. did I just hear someone say the NAM is getting its act together??? Man dude you feeling ok?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman9 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 did I just hear someone say the NAM is getting its act together??? Man dude you feeling ok?? I heard the NAM quit drinking and started taking Xanax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 did I just hear someone say the NAM is getting its act together??? Man dude you feeling ok?? It's kind of obvious. It has been showing huge and explosive storms (BECS) and most of the time it was wrong. This time it's modest and steady. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I heard the NAM quit drinking and started taking Xanax. eh liked it when it was drunk, we had more fun making fun of its shortcoming. if it gets its act together actually we'll have to find another model to bully, any ideas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 It's kind of obvious. It has been showing huge and explosive storms (BECS) and most of the time it was wrong. This time it's modest and steady. Each model handles different weather patterns better/worse than others. For example: the Euro which has lost some of its stellar consistency since the summer. - That's why you have to use each one as a tool in your tool box and know what their strengths and weakness are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 It's kind of obvious. It has been showing huge and explosive storms (BECS) and most of the time it was wrong. This time it's modest and steady. Lol. Just because it's not showing a bomb now doesn't mean it won't in the future. The physics the NAM runs on have always been the same. Nothing changed. A model can't all of a sudden understand synoptics better. Not trying to be rude, but the NAM is no different than before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman9 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 eh liked it when it was drunk, we had more fun making fun of its shortcoming. if it gets its act together actually we'll have to find another model to bully, any ideas? NAVGEM was a candidate for a few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 It's kind of obvious. It has been showing huge and explosive storms (BECS) and most of the time it was wrong. This time it's modest and steady. very encouraged with the trend since 12z today. I mean im not expecting the blizzard scenario anymore but this storm has that feel that dare I say has that BDB 2010 look where the models missed something up until the last minute. just something to consider and I know that setup is worlds different than this. it is something to consider throughout tonight and tomorrow if indeed it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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