BowMeHunter Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 not that I didn't already know the end to this book. THE HEAVIEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF MILWAUKEE. I'm still feeeling the effect from sunday nights packer game but this storm just might make me go on a 36 hr bender. This is going to be my drunk arse on bradford beach trying to get out in to the offshore LES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 00z runs should tell the tale. The waves that were out in the Pacific yesterday are now onshore but 12z may not have captured everything. At least you don't give up until the end. I'll give you that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoar_Frost Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 LOT/Izzi still going with 4-8" of synoptic snow, then 6"+ of LES. Doesn't look like that part of the AFD has been updated yet. Nonetheless, that's still probably a realistic synoptic range though I might be inclined to increase the upper bound to 9" or even 10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 sounds correct, no? Looks good to me. The question is who comes with the top amount. Geos!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 at Bowme's gif. Up to 15 dbz now. 4km NAM Question is, when does MKX pull the trigger on LES headlines? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 LOT on Lake effect SYNOPTIC SNOWS WIND DOWN FROM NW TO SE LATE WED AFTERNOON/EARLY WEDEVENING. NORTHEAST WINDS OFF THE LAKE COULD MAINTAIN SOME LAKEEFFECT SNOW SHOWER THREAT INTO CHGO METRO AREA WED EVENING...BUTBETTER THREAT OF MORE SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT THREAT APPEARS TO BELATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS INVERSION HEIGHTS RISE ANDMAGNITUDE OF LAKE INSTABILITY INCREASES. BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHTTHROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY LAKE-850MB DELTA T`S AT OR ABOVE20C...INVERSION HEIGHTS OVER 10KFT...HIGH LOW/MID LEVEL RH...ANDWELL DEVELOPED STRONG LAND/LAKE CONVERGENCE BAND STRONGLY POINTTOWARD THE POTENTIAL FOR AN INTENSE SINGLE BAND OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECTSNOW. SIMILAR SET-UPS IN THE PAST HAVE PRODUCED SNOW SQUALLS WITHHOURLY SNOW RATES IN EXCESS OF 2" PER HOUR AND AM CONCERNED THATCOULD BE THE CASE THIS GO AROUND AS WELL. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS PRETTYGOOD THAT INTENSE LAKE EFFECT SNOW COULD DEVELOP...CONFIDENCE INWHERE IT WOULD BE IS MUCH LOWER. HIGHER RES MODELS CONTINUE TOFLUCTUATE WITH THE LOCATION AND MOVEMENT OF THIS BAND FROM RUN TORUN...BUT "CONE OF UNCERTAINTY" OF WHO COULD GET AFFECTED INCLUDEAREAS WHERE I PUT OUT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH EARLIER. LES OFTENRESULTS IN HIGHLY VARIABLE TOTALS AND THINK THE POTENTIAL OF SOMEWHERE GETTING 6"+ OF PURE LAKE EFFECT LATE WED NIGHT/THURS IS PRETTYGOOD. IF BAND DEVELOPS AS INTENSELY AS IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ANDDECIDES TO SIT IN PLACE SOMEWHERE FOR A FEW HOURS IT WOULD NOT BESURPRISING TO SEE ISOLATED DOUBLE DIGIT SNOWFALL TOTALS (IN ADDITIONTO THE 4-8" EXPECTED WITH THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM).IZZI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 LOT/Izzi still going with 4-8" of synoptic snow, then 6"+ of LES. Read his AFD, but perplexed by the second synoptic band late AM tomorrow. Really haven't seen this train of thought before. Makes a difference to me for scheduling. Does this jive with your thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 ugh about the same as here than unless we score a coupe les bonus inches. kick to the tots for sure. Meh. Always next time i guess. Most of the snow is going to fall over a lengthy time period in the effected regions so not your typical "snowstorm". Plus, dont you have LES on your side? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 6+ LES is way bullish IMO, 4-8 synoptic is good, slightly bearish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Looks good to me. The question is who comes with the top amount. Geos!? Elburn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 SN now. 20 dbz+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve23guy Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Comin down at a good clip in rockford now. Mix of small flakes with large creepin in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 -SN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 6+ LES is way bullish IMO, 4-8 synoptic is good, slightly bearish.6" can happen very fast with a single band like that tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 http://www.earthcam.com/usa/illinois/chicago/wrigleyfield/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Meh. Always next time i guess. Most of the snow is going to fall over a lengthy time period in the effected regions so not your typical "snowstorm". Plus, dont you have LES on your side? Yup always next time and really I'm not all that aggravated.. Just had a nice little storm a little over a week ago.. I'm happy for Alek and it's a lot more fun reading the board when so many people are in to the system.. last storm was a bore on the board and i really do get a high just reading the excitement of others who love snow just as much as my terrible addiction. I'm not counting on much for les here but maybe I can pull off some bonus hrs of mood snow. GL to you with this one and the rest of this long winter yet ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 0.4 inches at 3:30 in the brook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Doctor Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 This is all I do I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoar_Frost Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 you'll finally be around for a decent event. Yes, it seems I will be, and this wasn't even planned -- only still out here because my car is broken down (and being fixed -- slowly). Missed the 20 January 2012 storm (the only one in 2011-12), and didn't experience any of the events last winter in either of my two visits at Thanksgiving and Christmas; I also missed the best two events of last winter in State College because I was here. So, my last good event here was GHD. I did see about 8" of snow in an event in State College on the 14th. All in all, I'm looking forward to this! 6+ LES is way bullish IMO, 4-8 synoptic is good, slightly bearish. I like your thinking here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoar_Frost Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Elburn. Yes. Thanks, BH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 20Z RAP looks to be focusing a bit more on the 88 to WI/IL border area for tonight....which, per the radar, is hard to argue with at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 wave #2 looks stronger and slightly north http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2013123118&var=PCPTHKPRS_1000-500mb&hour=024 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Flake size on the increase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 18z GFS gonna go to town on N IL with tomorrow's stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 MKE 18z 4k nam sounding showing some good upward motion within the boundary layer, good indication of an intense band of lake effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Elburn. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Yup always next time and really I'm not all that aggravated.. Just had a nice little storm a little over a week ago.. I'm happy for Alek and it's a lot more fun reading the board when so many people are in to the system.. last storm was a bore on the board and i really do get a high just reading the excitement of others who love snow just as much as my terrible addiction. I'm not counting on much for les here but maybe I can pull off some bonus hrs of mood snow. GL to you with this one and the rest of this long winter yet ahead. Yeah its much more exciting when everyone is on board tracking the same system rather than just a few. I still have a decent snow cover of about 4" which has survived the last two small warm-ups. LES is localized whereas only a few people out of many can prosper from it. Haven't had a decent clipper like we used to get in a while, so it would be nice to get one in the future. And GL to you too man. Happy New years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 20Z RAP looks to be focusing a bit more on the 88 to WI/IL border area for tonight....which, per the radar, is hard to argue with at this point i've liked i90 NW to SE into the city all day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDude Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Hoping to get a repeat of a storm in january or february 2005. 5-7" synoptic snow followed by another 5-8" les. I think the same storm dumped around 16" in wrigley ville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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