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December 31-January 2 Hybrid frisbee storm Part 2


Hoosier

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At 6pm....

 

Part 1...NYE through 3pm: 1.4"

Part 2...eve NYE through 6pm: 5.3".....snow depth 6"

 

Dendrites have since picked up. Its been a slow but steady accumulation all day. It seems like we jumped ahead of where I thought we would be by noon-1pm, then the afternoon was lighter than I expected. It has since picked up...sparkly blanket of powder outside...all is good. Models show snow continuing til about 2 or 3pm tomorrow!

 

 

I guess snowfall will continue across my area with a steady, heavy accumulating snow of .1" per hour. We should grind around 1" by tmrw afternoon...Got about 3" thus far...

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Moderate snow here south of Toledo with some heavy stuff coming

I was generally seeing the 4km NAM and SREF averages show that Toledo will get 0.4" to 0.5" more QPF (after mid-day today), so I think it seems likely that 6-7 more inches could hit Toledo. Now, of course, that 0.5" figure from the 4km NAM runs is a little high, that could lead to 10", which is pretty unprecedented for Toledo.

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LOT...

 

 

WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO BRIEFLY MODERATE SNOW CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY
SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CHICAGO/NW INDIANA TERMINALS WITH SOME
CONTINUED REGENERATION ON THE NORTHERN FLANK. EXPECT THAT
ORD/MDW/DPA WILL SEE IMPROVING VSBY AND DECREASING INTENSITY SNOW
IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS OR SO WITH GYY TAKING A BIT LONGER. CIGS HAVE
BEEN IMPROVING AS WELL WITH MAINLY MID TO HIGH MVFR NOW SHOWING UP
NORTH OF THE SNOW BAND.

ATTENTION TURNS TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL WITH LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS NOW OCCURRING ACROSS WISCONSIN. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
TURN MORE NORTHERLY LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ALLOWING THESE
SNOW SHOWERS TO MOVE/DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH TOWARDS THE TERMINALS.
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF THIS IS NOT TERRIBLY HIGH THROUGH LATE
EVENING BUT INCREASES OVERNIGHT AS PARAMETERS COME TOGETHER. AM
THINKING THAT SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY BE ABLE TO REACH THE RFD
AREA LATER THIS EVENING BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY VSBY REDUCTION AT
THIS TIME BUT WILL MONITOR. ORD/MDW/DPA REMAIN THE FAVORED AREAS
FOR SNOW SHOWERS FROM LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
COVERAGE MAY BE MORE CELLULAR/BROKEN EARLY ON THEN BECOME MORE
SOLID/INTENSE WITH TIME TOWARD DAYBREAK AS LAKE EFFECT BETTER
ORGANIZES. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING IFR/LIFR VSBY AT LEAST AT TIMES.

LAKE EFFECT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THURSDAY
MORNING AS CONVERGENCE MAXIMIZES. WINDS WILL BE TURNING MORE
NORTHERN THEN NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH TIME SUGGESTING THAT THE BAND
WILL BE PIVOTING ACROSS ORD/MDW THEN SETTING UP JUST TO THE EAST
BY MIDDAY. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG THE BAND WILL BE
OVER THE TERMINALS...WHICH AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO POTENTIALLY BE A
FEW HOURS BEFORE FOCUSING JUST TO THE EAST...PERHAPS BY JUST A FEW
MILES. WITH THE BAND OVERHEAD...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED
WITH 1/2 TO POTENTIALLY 1/4SM VSBY AT TIMES...WITH SEVERAL INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION DEPENDING ON HOW LONG THE BAND IS OVERHEAD. DPA
MAY BE AFFECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH AROUND DAYBREAK WITH THE BAND
EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE EAST. GYY MAY SEE MORE TRANSIENT SNOW
SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING WITH THE MAIN BAND EXPECTED TO
REACH THE TERMINAL AROUND MIDDAY WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF
MODERATE/HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DETAILS/DURATION OF THINGS
BUT HAVE DECENT CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL TRENDS.

MDB
 

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LO-****ing-L...

A good 2-4" off of surrounding areas. No point in even following totals there for the rest of the event.

0600 PM SNOW OHARE AIRPORT 41.98N 87.90W

01/01/2014 M4.8 INCH COOK IL OFFICIAL NWS OBS

STORM TOTAL SO FAR. 1.1 INCHES MEASURED SINCE 12PM.

BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

Like I said last night, bad measuring. Idk what they are doing but this is clearly too low based upon everything surrounding them.
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Also I am at my mom's for the evening and we are sitting at 5" currently here in southern Warren. Looks like another 2-4" still to go too.

Do you really think another 2-4" will be possible?  At least for up here in S/Middle Macomb etc..Looks like Monroe/Wayne could cash in really nicely.. 

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