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December 31-January 2 Hybrid frisbee storm Part 2


Hoosier

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REA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL  
1138 AM CST WED JAN 1 2014  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
1136 AM CST  
 
A RATHER STOUT BAND OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS CONTINUES TO BE AIDED  
BY SOME LOWER LEVEL LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY LATE THIS  
AFTERNOON...AND THIS HAS LEAD TO A BAND OF MODERATE SNOWFALL ACROSS  
NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS...WITH AROUND 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH PER HOUR RATES  
IN THE HEAVIEST SNOW MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-88. IT APPEARS THAT  
THIS SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.  
THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS THE MAIN SYNOPTIC SCALE SNOW BANDS WILL  
BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD AS A POTENT SHORT WAVE DIGS OVER THE OZARKS  
THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD FAVOR THE BETTER FRONTOGENESIS SOUTH OF  
INTERSTATE 80 THIS EVENING. BEFORE THIS BAND SHIFTS SOUTH...IT  
APPEARS THAT ANOTHER 2 TO 3 INCHES...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER  
AMOUNTS UP TO 4 INCHES...OF SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS NORTHEASTERN  
ILLINOIS. THIS SHOULD PLACE AREAS ACROSS LAKE COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF  
NORTHERN COOK...VERY CLOSE TO WARNING CRITERIA FOR 24 HOUR SNOW  
AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 8 INCHES.  
 
WE THREW AROUND THE IDEA OF UPGRADING THE CURRENT ADVISORY TO A  
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...BUT DECIDED THE  
BEST PLAN AT THIS JUNCTURE WAS TO HOLD ON TO THE CURRENT HEADLINES  
WITH A MENTION OF UP AROUND 8 INCHES ACROSS LAKE COUNTY...WITHIN THE  
PAST 24 HOURS.  
 
THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR THIS AFTERNOONS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE THE  
VERY GOOD LAKE EFFECT PARAMETERS FOR SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW  
INTO NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS ON THURSDAY. A POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT SNOW  
WARNING MAY BE NEEDED...GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY LAKE  
EFFECT SNOW ON THURSDAY.  
 

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Looks like Macomb and surrounding may end up doing half way decent if the latest NWS urgent weather info verifies:

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
131 PM EST WED JAN 1 2014

...TWO ROUNDS OF SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.SNOW WILL INCREASE INTENSITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND PERSIST
THROUGH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. A SLOW BUT STEADY
ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 7 INCHES IS EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN 4
COUNTIES BY NOON THURSDAY. FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE M-59 CORRIDOR 3
TO 5 INCHES IS EXPECTED...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE COUNTY AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTH. IN ADDITION...NORTHERLY WINDS AND AN ARCTIC AIRMASS
OVER LAKE HURON WILL LEAD TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS AFFECTING THE
THUMB REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE VARIABLE OVER THE AREA DUE TO THE NATURE OF THE LAKE
BANDS...BUT 4 TO 6 INCHES IS EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IF A BAND ENDS UP STALLING OR
PIVOTING OVER AN AREA.

MIZ068>070-020245-
/O.EXA.KDTX.WW.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-140102T1700Z/
LIVINGSTON-OAKLAND-MACOMB-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HOWELL...PONTIAC...WARREN
131 PM EST WED JAN 1 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON
EST THURSDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

* SNOW WILL INCREASE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE
   AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IS EXPECTED BY NOON
   THURSDAY. AMOUNTS WILL VARY GREATLY IN THESE COUNTIES WITH 1 TO
   3 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH AND UP TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE
   ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH.

* TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES AS THE WIND INCREASES
   FROM THE NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY.

IMPACTS...

* UNTREATED ROADS WILL BE SNOW-COVERED AND SLIPPERY MAKING
   TRAVEL HAZARDOUS.

* VISIBILITY WILL FALL TO ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

* A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL
   CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND
   LIMITED VISIBILITIES...SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION WHILE
   DRIVING.

* PREPARE...PLAN...AND STAY INFORMED. VISIT
 

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Nothing  like a New Years Day snowstorm with a temp of 12 degrees!

Powder wonderland outside.

 

Round 1: NYE 12am-3pm: 1.4"

Main show: NYE 10pm-145pm: 4.5"....Depth closer to 5" than 6" from a slight bit of settling...with a long long ways to go I remain adamant that DTX will bust for south of Detroit. They did raise amounts from 4-6" to 4-7" lol but that would mean I will see 2" or less with about 24 hours of snow to go :lol:

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Torching here, up to 34º on my thermometer.

 

Might as well Deb it up, but best screw zone looks like IKK down to LAF...as we both miss the northern banding, and then the bands out west slip to the south later tonight/overnight.

 

 

condolences....slow roading to china up here with inch an afternoon rates.

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Torching here, up to 34º on my thermometer.

 

Might as well Deb it up, but best screw zone looks like IKK down to LAF...as we both miss the northern banding, and then the bands out west slip to the south later tonight/overnight.

 

 

You gotta calibrate that thing man.  Airport sitting at 29.  :lol:

 

Still think we are good for around 4", maybe more. 

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Hoosier has been like the landlord trying to evict the entire Downer family, predicting 10+ for ORD, 4+ for the LAF, etc.

 

22 here. Hard to believe it's that much warmer just down the river.

36 here... Up to 40 at Indy now..  Warm front is somewhere been my house and LAF..

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