Chicago WX Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Don't count yourself out too quickly. 09Z SREF mean has 5.5" and this wave looks quite impressive on water vapor. Model QPF if only one part of the equation. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see a swath of 5 to 7 additional inches from LAF through Toledo. I'm just trying to error on the side of caution. Too many flips and flops in the past couple of days I guess. But, yeah...there is some upside. We'll hope for the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 RGEM has .35 qpf for STL and nearly .50 for my city. Wow, lock it in please. It's been so long since we have had a clipper like this over perform. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Thanks for pointing that out. Didn't realize that was actually LES. Should be exciting when that gets here. Enjoy it! In the 8 years I've lived in Aurora, I think I've benefited from LE once. Ha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Alek you think thats too low !!!!!! this far south, totally. Looks ok far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 12z RGEM snowfall map looks like a crocodile getting ready to eat Pennsylvania. I swear I've sobered up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 and MKE who is slighty more bullish than ALEK URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI909 AM CST WED JAN 1 2014...LAKE EFFECT LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING....WINDS HAVE TURNED NORTH TO NORTHEAST OVER SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.THESE WINDS...AND THE COLD AIR IN PLACE WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OFSNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE LAKE SHORE COUNTIES TODAY AS WELLAS COUNTIES FARTHER INLAND FROM THE LAKE... CONTINUING INTOTHURSDAY.TOTAL SNOWFALL OF 3 TO 8 INCHES IS EXPECTED OVER THE LAKE SHORECOUNTIES THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 2 TO 5 INCHES INEASTERN PORTIONS OF WASHINGTON... WAUKESHA AND WALWORTH COUNTIES.THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SNOWFALL TO EXCEED 8 INCHES IN SOMELOCATIONS BY LATER THURSDAY.A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA INTOTHURSDAY.THE SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE TRANSIENT TODAY BUTCOULD BECOME STATIONARY FOR A TIME TONIGHT INTO THURSDAYRESULTING IN MORE PERSISTENT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SAME AREA. ALLINTERESTS TRAVELING IN THE ADVISORY AREA SHOULD BE PREPARED TOENCOUNTER REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND POSSIBLE RAPID ACCUMULATIONS OFSNOW. SLOW DOWN IF YOU ENCOUNTER ONE OF THESE HEAVIER SNOWSHOWERS.WIZ065-066-070>072-012315-/O.CON.KMKX.LE.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-140102T2100Z/WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WAUKESHA...BROOKFIELD...MILWAUKEE...ELKHORN...LAKE GENEVA...RACINE...KENOSHA909 AM CST WED JAN 1 2014...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM CSTTHURSDAY...A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM CSTTHURSDAY.* TIMING...PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW THIS MORNING WILL CHANGE OVERTO SNOW SHOWERS TODAY...AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. THE SNOWSHOWERS MAY BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES TONIGHT INTOTHURSDAY.* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS FROM LAKE EFFECTSNOW 1 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS WALWORTH AND WAUKESHA COUNTIES...TO4 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS MILWAUKEE...RACINE AND KENOSHA COUNTIES.* IMPACTS...THE SNOW WILL CREATE SLIPPERY DRIVING CONDITIONS ANDREDUCED VISIBILITY.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE-EFFECT SNOW IS FORECASTTHAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. LAKE-EFFECT SNOWSHOWERS TYPICALLY ALIGN THEMSELVES IN BANDS AND WILL LIKELY BEINTENSE ENOUGH TO DROP SEVERAL INCHES IN LOCALIZED AREAS. USECAUTION WHEN TRAVELING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 12z RGEM snowfall map looks like a crocodile getting ready to eat Pennsylvania. croc.gif I swear I've sobered up. haha, the eyes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 some nice 25dbz returns about to move overhead. Flake size really increasing now. Winds picking up too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 some nice 25dbz returns about to move overhead. Flake size really increasing now. Winds picking up too. yes....we are finally back "in the game" lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 haha, the eyes You never want to be in the eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 looks like the west half of lower Lake MI is starting to get seeded/enhanced decently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Just had another heavy batch of LE push through. Close to 8" now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 As extremewx52 pointed out, 9z SREF was fairly bullish for LAF. But, a pretty good spread from top to bottom...around 2-8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 yep, that LE is barreling towards Geos like a freight train. Looks like the very southern edge north of Gary is interacting with the returns along/south of I-88. I'd love for it to gel and hit over my house for a while. REALLY ripping here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 LE snow is occurring from just north of downtown on up towards MKE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 pretty cool....you can see the individual plume get washed out a bit...and now there are numerous little streamers/feeders... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 LE snow is occurring from just north of downtown on up towards MKE. It's -SN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 pretty cool....you can see the individual plume get washed out a bit...and now there are numerous little streamers/feeders... WUNIDS_map.gif Best radar for viewing this type of LES imo. Lol, at what Chicago Wx is seeing this morning in the maps! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoar_Frost Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Even under the lighter returns, the snow is still appreciable here. Had 2.9" through 12z today and another inch or so since then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 yep, that LE is barreling towards Geos like a freight train. Looks like the very southern edge north of Gary is interacting with the returns along/south of I-88. I'd love for it to gel and hit over my house for a while. REALLY ripping here now. rollin' pretty good now...SN with borderline SN+ spurts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 6.2" of snow as of 10am, very very fluffy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 taken under 20+dbz. Tall black building in second pic is ~1/2 mile away. So we were creeping up on SN here. 3 and change on the ground. Currently caught in a subsidence screw hole between feeder bands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoar_Frost Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Now, the snow is really coming down. Flake habit and size could be a bit better, but this is certainly sufficient for continued accumulations! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 12z RGEM snowfall map looks like a crocodile getting ready to eat Pennsylvania. croc.gif I swear I've sobered up. LOL.. WTF did you drink last night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 taken under 20+dbz. Tall black building in second pic is ~1/2 mile away. So we were creeping up on SN here. 3 and change on the ground. Currently caught in a subsidence screw hole between feeder bands. cool pics, nice 'hood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Now, the snow is really coming down. Flake habit and size could be a bit better, but this is certainly sufficient for continued accumulations! winds have kicked up a bit...might be shattering things a bit? Also, gonna force me into multiple measurement mode as I see some minor drifting/blowing has begun to affect things nice pics Alek! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 We've seen an additional 2.5" since things quieted down last night, bringing the event total here to 8.4" so far.Rates are back up again and winds are really starting to gust for the first time during the event: http://ustre.am/16Txc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 LOL.. WTF did you drink last night? Come on man, it's clearly a crocodile eating PA. 12z GFS looks nice from STL up through Josh's backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoar_Frost Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 winds have kicked up a bit...might be shattering things a bit? Also, gonna force me into multiple measurement mode as I see some minor drifting/blowing has begun to affect things nice pics Alek! Yeah, the increased winds may be shattering the flakes somewhat. In that respect, conditions aren't as ideal as they were last night, when the air was nearly calm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 A co-op observer down the road calculated a ratio of 27-28:1 through 7am. Might need to adjust the amount of water I received. Nice pics Alek. Hope you get in on the LES later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.