Chicago WX Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Extracted has .12 for us. Weird that it's not in sync with that map. Cobb data has 0.05" total. Punt the extracted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 -SN up to EFT (Monroe) 12" on the map for Waukegan as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 31, 2013 Author Share Posted December 31, 2013 Cobb data has 0.05" total. Punt the extracted. You're going with whatever is lowest. I know your game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
extremewx52 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 It was mentioned in the other thread but you would think a higher res model like the NAM would do better picking up on the banding in a setup like this. Maybe it's a bit overdone but it should probably be given some respect. This is the key. Euro is probably pretty good for the broadbrush amounts, but the individual banding will be picked up my better by the high resolution models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 flakes flying at my house....flurry style...but it's a start none the less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Just catching up on everything....LE effect signal looks very strong so MKX should eventually have a headline for that. 00z models soundings on the NAM and GFS both had inversion heights approaching 700mb and some decent negative omega in the DGZ although it looks like the 12z models backed-off just a little bit. Even though we are riding the northern edge of the heavier snow, the GFS shows a 400mb deep DGZ from 00z WED to 00z THU. Ratios look like the could be in the 20-25:1 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Bumping my original ORD call of 6" up to my contest call of 9". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 You're going with whatever is lowest. I know your game. Final call. FWA: 4.5" IND: 1.5" LAF: 0.5" MIE: 2.0" OKK: 1.5" SBN: 9.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Just catching up on everything....LE effect signal looks very strong so MKX should eventually have a headline for that. 00z models soundings on the NAM and GFS both had inversion heights approaching 700mb and some decent negative omega in the DGZ although it looks like the 12z models backed-off just a little bit. Even though we are riding the northern edge of the heavier snow, the GFS shows a 400mb deep DGZ from 00z WED to 00z THU. Ratios look like the could be in the 20-25:1 range. That's what I was just thinking they should do next. 16z HRRR - full range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 That's what I was just thinking they should do next. 16z HRRR - full range. Looks north of some of the guidence, especially in MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Bumping my original ORD call of 6" up to my contest call of 9". Oh my Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I went with 6.6" in the contest for DTW, I think I am going to stick with that. My 9.5" for ORD looking pretty legit as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Going with 11.1" for here. I'm extremely bullish on LE given the possibility that a band may sit on us for a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
extremewx52 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Dubuque down to 1/2 mile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 yep best banding around dubuque just as modeled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 SREF plume mean: 7"+ at MKE, 10" UGN, and 9"+ for ORD. -SN at JVL and RFD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 once it starts it could be snowing at ORD for 36 hrs(including tail end lake effect) if they average just .3 inches per hour that's 10.8 inches..of course some rates within that span could be .1/hr some 1+in/hr in LES long fluffy duration events in light winds(dendrites don't get broken up) usually over perform Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 SREF plume mean: 7"+ at MKE, 10" UGN, and 9"+ for ORD. -SN at JVL and RFD. Flurries flying in dkb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Bumping my original ORD call of 6" up to my contest call of 9". I'll go with 10" at ORD and 8" here in Naperville near I-88. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 This is the key. Euro is probably pretty good for the broadbrush amounts, but the individual banding will be picked up my better by the high resolution models. I appreciate you posting your thoughts here. Here is IWX's map for total accumulation for both waves in their CWA. It looks rather 12:1 - 15:1 Euroish. As extreme states, banding could result in higher amounts, especial along the IN/MI line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Flurries flying in dkb Saturating fairly quickly then. Haha, this cold air can't hold the moisture. Can't wait till the wind is blowing off the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 flakes falling here. Nice blob of 20DBZ about to move in. Starting a little earlier than anticipated. Bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 friends that live about six miles North of me have snow and we are back to just cloudy skies. I hate missing these things by that kind of distance but unfortunately its going to be that kind of gradient with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Snow is flying here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Starting to snow lightly here in Elgin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 flakes flying at my house....flurry style...but it's a start none the less getting a little steadier the last few minutes And I'll stick with my contest call of 11.3" at ORD and 8" sounds good for MBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Oh my Be afraid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Nice graphic Skilling put up this morning on FB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 31, 2013 Author Share Posted December 31, 2013 LOT calling for 4-8" with locally higher amounts in the advisory area through Wednesday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I'm going to bust. DDs looking likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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