A-L-E-K Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 going to bust high on my original and final 6.9999996 call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Solid 3" on the ground here at home about 15 miles south of Windsor, smack dab in the centre of Essex county. I too agree with the bust potential of the DTX south of the city. EC has upped the snow amounts to a max of 24cm. Down town Windsor only had a cm or so early this am, as I finished salting a good burst drove thru and buried the salt. At least there is a layer down there to aid in plowing later today. Merry Newbie 2014 everyone !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 going to bust high on my original and final 6.9999996 callEasily still within reach. Several reports near you were around 2.5"-3" last night. Between today and any bonus LES, you can easily get there.Every little trend or development sends you reeling. Gotta roll with the punches... it's a long duration event with multiple waves/sources of precip. Last night was only forecasted to drop 2"-4" from the get-go. Short term guidance has another 0.10-0.30"+ across the I-88 corridor with this wave today. Case. In. Point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Short term guidance has another 0.10-0.30"+ across the I-88 corridor with this wave today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 RAP RAP RAP RAP RAP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Easily still within reach. Several reports near you were around 2.5"-3" last night. Between today and any bonus LES, you can easily get there. Every little trend or development sends you reeling. Gotta roll with the punches... it's a long duration event. Last night was only forecasted to drop 2"-4" from the get-go. Even if we had 3" last night (we didn't even come close) no way we see another 3"+ today, synoptic or LE. Synoptic won't even drop more than an inch or two. Convergence is way north and will pull into NW IN pretty quick for the main band which looks less and less impressive each run. Win some you lose some, but this was a definite letdown event....not an all time dud but a total snoozer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 3" in toledo with sn-I'm in BG and I've got right around 3" here. Between the two of us I think there's a legit shot of barely cracking 10" especially if today's precip goes well. Cle had 1-2" in my grid last night and another 4-9" in Tue forecast.Still -SN falling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maumee Bay Turf Center Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I'm in BG and I've got right around 3" here. Between the two of us I think there's a legit shot of barely cracking 10" especially if today's precip goes well. Cle had 1-2" in my grid last night and another 4-9" in Tue forecast. Still -SN falling Agree completely daff. I think we are an afterthought for cles office. We are in no mans land between two offices with drastically different climo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mogget Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Pixie dust in Madison. Dunno the official measurement but mine is 2.3 inches last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 you know what's most disappointing of all? It's not the busted forecast. It's the fact that I can still see some of the longer blades of grass sticking up through the snow . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Getting some good rates up here in the last 15 minutes. Too bad the LES didn't stick around longer. Will measure in a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Final call for YYZ: 0.4". Just flurries wouldn't surprise me at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 2.4" of snow fell since 1am last night. Total for event up to 7.6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 12z NAM cut QPF here (now 0.25-0.30"), which isn't surprising...so with it closer to other drier guidance...going with 2-4" total, but with a longshot ceiling of 5" if everything breaks perfectly for LAF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 2.4" of snow fell since 1am last night. Total for event up to 7.6".what's your depth? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Final call for YYZ: 0.4". Just flurries wouldn't surprise me at all. Happy New Year. And yeah, I'm concerned about the sharp northern edge of the snow shield that is forecast to set up shop somewhere across the GTA. I could see areas along the lakeshore and points southwest get a couple of inches while areas north of Steeles get next to nothing or just flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 what's your depth? About 13". Ratios are staying right around 22-23:1 - consistent so far. LES affecting the area, even though the main band is in Milwaukee. +sn atm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
extremewx52 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 12z NAM cut QPF here (now 0.25-0.30"), which isn't surprising...so with it closer to other drier guidance...going with 2-4" total, but with a longshot ceiling of 5" if everything breaks perfectly for LAF. Don't count yourself out too quickly. 09Z SREF mean has 5.5" and this wave looks quite impressive on water vapor. Model QPF if only one part of the equation. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see a swath of 5 to 7 additional inches from LAF through Toledo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 ORD 12z update concerning LES (got about 6 inches here) DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...THE NEXT IN THE TRAIN OF FAST MOVING SHORT WAVES WAS MOVING ESEOVER SW MN...NW IA AND NE AND S CENTRAL NE EARLY THIS MORNINGWITH A COUPLE MORE A BIT FURTHER UPSTREAM...ONE OVER E CO AND THENEB PANHANDLE AND THE OTHER OVER SE MT AND NE WY. SNOW AHEAD OFTHE CLOSEST SHORT WAVE HAD SPREAD ACROSS S WI AND FAR N IL AND TOS LAKE MI BEFORE DAWN.WITH USUAL POOR HANDLING BY MODELS OF MULTIPLE SMALL FAST CLOSELYSPACED SHORT WAVES HAVE RELIED ON ENSEMBLE MEANS AND MODELCONSENSUS AS TO SHORT WAVE MOVEMENT. THIS METHOD PLACES THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER S WI AND N IL AT 00Z.MODEL QPF PROGS HAVE FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING MEASURABLEPRECIPITATION TO ORD & MDW EARLY THIS MORNING...AND EXPECT APERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN THIS LATER THIS MORNING ANDDURING THE FIRST PART OF THIS AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL WSW WINDSINCREASE TO 35-45 KT WITH SIGNIFICANT ISENTROPIC LIFT ENHANCINGSNOWFALL RATE.THROWN INTO THE MIX IS THE LAKE EFFECT WILD CARD. A NE LOW LEVELFLOW OF VERY COLD AIR DOWN N AND CENTRAL LAKE MI WILL BE QUITEFAVORABLE FOR A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO DEVELOP TODAY. THOUGHNOTHING SHOWN ON RADARS AS FAR AS LAKE EFFECT SNOW OCCURRENCE ISCONCERNED. HOWEVER...CLASSIC SIGN OF CONVERGENCE OVER THE LAKEDEVELOPING IS SEEN...WITH NW WINDS ALONG THE W SHORE AND NE ONTHE E SHORE.THE DEVELOPING LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS PROGGED TO REACH INTO FAR SEWI AND FAR NE IL BY LATE MID MORNING BUT WITH TIME TODAY THE LOWLEVEL FLOW OVER THE FAR S PORTION OF THE LAKE IS TO BECOME NE TOENE WHICH WOULD TEND TO HAVE THE TAIL END OF THE BAND SHIFTINGFURTHER INLAND AND TO THE W OF ORD AND MDW FOR THIS AFTERNOON.HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LARGE DIFFERENTIAL BETWEEN THE WATER AND THEAIR ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BEDEVELOPING...ALTHOUGH DUE TO A SHORTER FETCH AND LIMITED DEPTH OFLAKE EFFECT CLOUD GROWTH WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS VIGOROUS AS WITHINTHE MAIN LES BAND.OVERNIGHT THE FLOW OVER THE S END OF THE LAKE IS SHOWN BY THEMODELS TO BACK SOMEWHAT. THIS WOULD ESTABLISH THE S END OF THELES BAND ALONG AND INLAND OF THE IL SHORELINE. IN ADDITION...THECOLD AIR DEEPENS ALLOWING A INCREASE IN THE DEPTH OF LAKE EFFECTCLOUDS TO ENHANCE SNOW PRODUCTION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Happy New Year. And yeah, I'm concerned about the sharp northern edge of the snow shield that is forecast to set up shop somewhere across the GTA. I could see areas along the lakeshore and points southwest get a couple of inches while areas north of Steeles get next to nothing or just flurries. This has virga fest written all over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 nice westward moving blob over the lake moving towards the IL and WI shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 About 13". Ratios are staying right around 22-23:1 - consistent so far. LES affecting the area, even though the main band is in Milwaukee. +sn atm. Yeah, moderate snow here right now with much better flakeage than last night's pixie dust event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 This has virga fest written all over it. So far I am living just that here!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 RGEM has 4-6" in a narrow band right through my city. Oh my. Not happening but if it does, I'll be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 nice westward moving blob over the lake moving towards the IL and WI shore. Thanks for pointing that out. Didn't realize that was actually LES. Should be exciting when that gets here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 .File.png lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 12z 4km NAM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 -SN has returned, ~4 more inches to hit my call flake size is rubbish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 lol Alek you think thats too low !!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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