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December 31-January 2 Hybrid frisbee storm Part 2


Hoosier

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LOT

 

840 PM CST

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM KANSAS TO CENTRAL INDIANA POSITIONED SOUTH OF THE CWA WHILE A
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS STRETCHES FROM SASKATCHEWAN INTO NORTHERN
ILLINOIS. MID LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT AND ASSOCIATED
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING CONTINUES TO GENERATE A BAND OF SNOW
ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA THIS EVENING BUT FORCING IS
BECOMING LESS FOCUSED TO THE WEST OF THE AREA RESULTING IN MUCH
LESS COVERAGE OF SNOW...WITH THE BACK EDGE OF THE BETTER SNOW NOW
PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CHICAGO METRO. RADAR
MOSAIC DOES SHOW A VERY NARROW BAND OF DEVELOPING SNOW FROM JUST
EAST OF INDEPENDENCE IOWA TO DUBUQUE TO THE BELOIT AREA IN
CONJUNCTION WITH SOME CONTINUED FGEN. OTHERWISE SPOTTY LIGHT
RETURNS CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD. HAVE BEEN TWEAKING POPS OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR TRENDS AND WILL BE
EVALUATING CHANGES FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE GENERAL THINKING
OF A BREAK IN MORE WIDESPREAD AND MORE INTENSE SNOW IN FAVOR OF
PERIODIC LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES CONTINUES...WITH THE FAVORED AREA
NORTH OF A MENDOTA TO JOLIET TO VALPARAISO LINE. HOWEVER...THE FAR
NORTHERN CWA...MAINLY RIGHT ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER...WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PERIODIC BANDS OF STEADIER SNOW
SUCH AS THE ONE NOTED ABOVE MAINLY BEFORE ABOUT 8Z. AMOUNTS THUS
FAR HAVE RANGED FROM AROUND A HALF INCH CLOSE TO INTERSTATE 80 TO
AROUND 3.5 INCHES IN THE FAR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. AT THIS
POINT...ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN AN INCH ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH DAYBREAK FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA...WITH AN INCH OR 2
POSSIBLE IF BANDING CAN CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS NEAR THE WI
BORDER.

ONE OTHER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT TOWARD
DAYBREAK ACROSS THE ILLINOIS SHORELINE AREA. WITH THE INVERTED
TROUGH TO THE SOUTH TIGHTENING UP AND THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH
DRIFTING EAST...WINDS ACROSS THE LAKE WILL TURN FROM NORTHWEST TO
NORTH OVERNIGHT WITH LAKE INFLUENCES LIKELY ALLOWING FOR
CONVERGENCE TO DEVELOP DOWN THE LONG AXIS OF THE LAKE LATE
TONIGHT...BEFORE WINDS TURN NORTHEAST THEN EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS ARE PRETTY MARGINAL WITH INVERSION
HEIGHTS TOPPING OUT AROUND 5000 FT. IN ADDITION THE PERIOD WHERE
CONVERGENCE LOOKS ORGANIZED IS VERY SHORT AS WINDS WILL BE
PROGRESSIVELY TURNING TO THE EAST CUTTING DOWN THE FETCH.
ULTIMATELY THERE IS PROBABLY A SEVERAL HOUR WINDOW AFTER ABOUT 11Z
WHERE A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW COULD WORK ACROSS LAKE COUNTY INDIANA
INTO COOK AND LAKE ILLINOIS WHERE ITS PLAUSIBLE THAT SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATION WILL OCCUR. THIS MAY ALSO OCCUR IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT ROUND OF SYNOPTIC SNOW. WILL WORK SOME
DETAIL INTO THE GRIDS FOR A FEW HOURS TOWARD DAYBREAK PRIOR TO THE
SYNOPTIC SNOW ARRIVAL.

WILL LEAVE CURRENT HEADLINES AS-IS THOUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE ADVISORY SAW A BIT LESS SNOW THAN EARLIER EXPECTED WITH A
TIGHTER SNOWFALL COVERAGE GRADIENT...BUT WILL BECOME THE FAVORED
AREAS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WEDNESDAY. 
 

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