Hoosier Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 4km NAM snow plot and total precip plot---- jackpot for my home town of Perrysburg OH. Apparently this even shows that snow will accumulate on the ice of lake Erie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
extremewx52 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 12Z 4 km SPC wrf has virtually no pause in the snowfall between waves and continues to hammer the same locations. The light green values are 20 to 25 dbz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Looks like 12z euro is the weakest and south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Thanks for the input extremewx, on this page and the last thread page. From Skilling, WGN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoar_Frost Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 From Part I: Izzi sounded like he was leaning against an upgrade with his latest disco but was contemplating increasing WWA coverage. Of course, the 12z runs weren't done at that time. Yes, he did. Glad he's at the desk today. He's no snow weenie, so little chance of an over-forecasting bias creeping in; he's usually spot-on with these events, so I am certainly going to be interested in the afternoon AFD. Bumping call to 6.4" which still could be conservative. I'm increasingly inclined to agree with your call of 'conservative.' For our area, I'm about prepared to go with a 7.5" threshold over-under for the totality of the event (say, through 12z Thursday). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 some 1/2 mile obs splattering in now in north central Iowa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 31, 2013 Author Share Posted December 31, 2013 Top 10 storms for Chicago. Can this one sneak in...stay tuned! 23.0 inches Jan 26-27, 1967 21.6 inches Jan 1-3, 1999 21.2 inches Jan 31-Feb 2, 2011 20.3 inches Jan 12-14, 1979 19.2 inches Mar 25-26, 1930 16.2 inches Mar 7-8, 1931 14.9 inches Jan 30, 1939 14.9 inches Jan 6-7, 1918 14.8 inches Dec 17-19, 1929 14.3 inches Mar 25-26, 1970 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Emmett Brown Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Looks like I'll be sitting this one out. I'm just north of i94 between Madison and Milwaukee, looking at the latest hi res NAM plots I think I'll be lucky to see 1" over a three day period. Maybe I can get 1.5" over 72 hours. Maybe a flizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
extremewx52 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Thanks for the input extremewx, on this page and the last thread page. From Skilling, WGN. Thanks Geos, I wonder if Skilling has an obligation to show his RPM model whether he agrees with it or not. I don't necessarily disagree with that map, but I am just curious if that is an issue he runs into. I was his intern for a semester in college and I guess I should have asked that question back then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 update via LOT.... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL1158 AM CST TUE DEC 31 2013 //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z... PAIR OF DISTURBANCES WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW TO THETERMINALS STARTING THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR ALREADY LIGHTING UP ACROSSNORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS BUT DRY LOW/MID LEVELS TAKING AN HOUR OR TWOTO SATURATE BEFORE PRECIP REACHES THE SURFACE. ONCE THAT HAPPENSTHOUGH...EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS TO COMMENCE AND VSBY TO QUICKLY FALLINTO THE 1-2SM RANGE WITH LOCALIZED AREAS LESS THAN A MILE. MODELSIN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE BEST FORCING LATE THIS AFTERNOONTHROUGH MID EVENING. WHILE SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUEOVERNIGHT...THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE A BIT OF A LULL IN THE INTENSITYTHROUGH AROUND DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. SNOW TOTALS BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAYWILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 3 TO 6 INCH RANGE. ANOTHER WAVE COMESACROSS THE AREA WITH SNOW RE-INTENSIFYING MID MORNING. SOME MODELSHAD SUGGESTED THIS SECOND WAVE WOULD MAINLY IMPACT AREAS SOUTH OFTHE TERMINALS...BUT THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED FARTHER NORTH.IN ADDITION...WINDS TURNING NORTHEASTERLY OFF THE LAKE TOMORROW ANDLOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPENING COULD RESULT IN SOME MESOSCALEENHANCEMENT OF THE SNOW MID TO LATE TOMORROW MORNING. AN ADDITIONALCOUPLE INCHES OF SNOW WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IS EXPECTED DURINGTHE DAY TOMORROW. CONFIDENCE ON WHERE EXACTLY THE HIGHER TOTALS MAYSET UP IS LOW...BUT WOULD MOST LIKELY IMPACT ORD/MDW WHERE VSBY MAYEND UP BEING LOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. SOME OF THE LAKE EFFECTPARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL AT THIS POINT THOUGH WITH EQUILIBRIUMHEIGHTS RIGHT AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE BASE OF THE SNOW GROWTHZONE...THOUGH SOME HI-RES GUIDANCE DOES SHOW ENHANCEDCONVERGENCE/HIGHER PRECIP TOTALS OVER LAKE/COOK COUNTIES EARLYTOMORROW. BETTER LAKE EFFECT SETUP DEVELOPS JUST BEYOND THE CURRENTTAF PERIOD. IT APPEARS FAVORABLE THAT A SINGLE INTENSE BAND OF LAKEEFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ANDCOULD IMPACT SOME OF THE CHICAGO TERMINALS. BMD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Now that my hands are off the the thread maybe it'll come north some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 tidy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 little pixie dust falling here...though the radar is looking good, or starting to, for the Northern two tiers of counties in NW IL and maybe the lower tier of counties in WI. Seeing some green embedded within the echoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Now that my hands are off the the thread maybe it'll come north some. Fly back to Edmonton and then it will come north... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Impressive Plumes for KDTW http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index2.php?YMD=20131231&RT=09&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=DTW&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=4&mLAT=37.77478874678&mLON=-96.042896875&mTYP=roadmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
extremewx52 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Euro Gotta love the KLAF screwhole. Poor Hoosier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 31, 2013 Author Share Posted December 31, 2013 Euro Oh boy, wait'll Tim sees that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Fly back to Edmonton and then it will come north... Yup. EURO still a whifferoo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Yea, the ECMWF is very dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Yea, the ECMWF is very dry. Comparing to other models, it looks to be the driest, quite a chance from 36 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 31, 2013 Author Share Posted December 31, 2013 I'm still hoping we get into the 1-3" range here. Frankly the Euro qpf has been wavering a lot around here...after being the wettest model it's now the driest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Oh boy, wait'll Tim sees that. Pick your poison. Fookin brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 31, 2013 Author Share Posted December 31, 2013 It was mentioned in the other thread but you would think a higher res model like the NAM would do better picking up on the banding in a setup like this. Maybe it's a bit overdone but it should probably be given some respect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Euro Reality check by the euro? I'm actually relieved to see that map. Decent hit here and considering the euro doesn't have the resolution for some lake effect events, still open game for some respectable amounts near the lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Thanks Geos, I wonder if Skilling has an obligation to show his RPM model whether he agrees with it or not. I don't necessarily disagree with that map, but I am just curious if that is an issue he runs into. I was his intern for a semester in college and I guess I should have asked that question back then. That could be the case. He always shows it, along with ever other met that works in the office. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 31, 2013 Author Share Posted December 31, 2013 Pick your poison. gfsFLT_sfc_precacc_060.gif Fookin brutal. Extracted has .12 for us. Weird that it's not in sync with that map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDude Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I feel like making a prediction. 7.9". LES is so tricky... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Skilling looping RPM zoomed in, I-88 locked and loaded. 12" at ORD. About 9.5" out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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