Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

01/02/14 to 01/03/14 Snow Storm Observations


WeatherFox

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.7k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

PS,

Those ripples on the neighbors lawn and in the street are waves sculpted by the wind.  I thought that was pretty cool.

 

Figures it gets a little better as I decide to go to bed.  Down to 14F at 1AM, snow is a little heavier but still on the light side for my taste, but the wind is getting noisier.  Here is the scene a few minutes ago.  Night night.

 

attachicon.gifDSC_0006e1s.jpg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

A Blizzard Warning needs to be issued ImO

 

Why? All of the ASOS stations, even the ones on Long Island, have sustained winds around 25 mph, a full 10 mph short of criteria, and even the gusts have been below 35 mph -- nevermind the visibility criteria. We'll see how the night transpires, but I don't think we're in a dire situation where these warnings need to be churned out. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I don't know about 2004, but I remember it started snowing at 13-14 degrees during the blizzard of 96.

 

that January 04 clipper was the best case of high ratios in NYC because the winds were quite light and it was in the teens, tonight the problem is likely the strong winds fracturing the flakes causing it to be more 12:1 or so if I had to guess.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just pouring snow here

lol, saw this post about 10 minutes ago and was wondering if you were on crack or had moved, then I looked at the radar and I'm guessing a heavy band must've just gotten to you first - it's really ripping here now - visibility definitely under 1/4 mile here.  Need to take another walk outside...maybe do a 2nd round of shoveling...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The ratios are clearly not as good as anticipated, likely due to the winds, NYC's ASOS tends to hit the liquid equivalent head on and says only 10 to 1 as of midnight...LGA however measured .15 liquid as of 1am and maybe around 3.8 to 4 inches of snow, so they would be over 20 to 1 but my guess is they are not reporting the liquid amount right because EWR is 4 inches and .26 liquid.

 

To be fair (and optimistic :lol:), the ratios, as modeled, were supposed to improve notably the storm went on. I think 10-15:1 ratios for at least the first half of the storm were expected. Still wouldn't shock me if these magical ratios that everyone was expecting never transpired -- a lot of the modeling had the best lift above the dendritic growth zone for a lot of the storm. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

To be fair (and optimistic :lol:), the ratios, as modeled, were supposed to improve notably the storm went on. I think 10-15:1 ratios for at least the first half of the storm were expected. Still wouldn't shock me if these magical ratios that everyone was expecting never transpired -- a lot of the modeling had the best lift above the dendritic growth zone for a lot of the storm. 

 

Yeah it may turn out the QPF ends up way more than most models ultimately had, good thing because it may have ended up only being a 3-5 inch storm otherwise

Link to comment
Share on other sites

lol, saw this post about 10 minutes ago and was wondering if you were on crack or had moved, then I looked at the radar and I'm guessing a heavy band must've just gotten to you first - it's really ripping here now - visibility definitely under 1/4 mile here. Need to take another walk outside...maybe do a 2nd round of shoveling...

Lol. What's our total so far? Has to be over 5

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The arctic air has reached Monmouth county finally. 17 up by the raritan and still 25 here in wall.

It was weird how the 24 degrees earlier on LI felt tolerable with the snow falling.  Not too bitter either.  The 8-10 degrees later will feel much more frigid.  The 38 degrees on Sunday will feel warm.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

To be fair (and optimistic :lol:), the ratios, as modeled, were supposed to improve notably the storm went on. I think 10-15:1 ratios for at least the first half of the storm were expected. Still wouldn't shock me if these magical ratios that everyone was expecting never transpired -- a lot of the modeling had the best lift above the dendritic growth zone for a lot of the storm. 

15:1 average still looks good so far. Keep in mind to throw out JFK's always laughable measurement in windy storms like this. I'm over 5" here now, pretty confident in that, and it's snowing moderately I'd say. Visibility's about two blocks.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...