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01/02/14 to 01/03/14 Snow Storm Observations


WeatherFox

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Snowing moderately now down to 10.5 degrees.  2.5 inches now. Flakes are so small you barely notice  them except I was outside for about five minutes and I was covered in snow.  Wish I was skiing in this because it is some sweet powder!laugh.png  I don't think I have been in a snowstorm before on the east coast when it was this cold. 

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Man that band offshore of NJ is just asking to pivot and nail us all

I wouldn't wager on that coming ashore-this was well modeled with that heavy activity just offshore. We will likely have this kind of intensity for another 6 hours, maybe locally heavier in some bands as the trough comes through. Add another 3-5" onto what's already on the ground and that should be good.

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I wouldn't wager on that coming ashore-this was well modeled with that heavy activity just offshore. We will likely have this kind of intensity for another 6 hours, maybe locally heavier in some bands as the trough comes through. Add another 3-5" onto what's already on the ground and that should be good.

You can see the darker greens pivoting though. The back edge is no longer moving east.

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Upton's forecast for Brooklyn tomorrow:

 

 

 

Snow likely with widespread blowing snow before 10am, then widespread blowing snow and a chance of snow between 10am and 1pm, then widespread blowing snow after 1pm. Cloudy through mid morning, then gradual clearing, with a high near 19. Wind chill values as low as -13. Windy, with a northwest wind 22 to 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible.

 

 

Look at that! A wind chill of -13. That is essentially Wind Chill Advisory criteria during the day! That would be a first for our area if true!

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1158 PM EST THU JAN 2 2014


.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING OFF MORE RAPIDLY THAN FORECAST - HAVE
ADJUSTED DOWNWARD BASED ON HRRR 2-M TEMPERATURES WHICH SEEM TO AVE
BEST HANDLE ON CURRENT TRENDS. AS A RESULT - COULD END UP WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS - SO ADDED LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE TO THE WSW TEXT.

SPS OUT FOR SNOW BAND IMPACTING S NASSAU AND SUFFOLK - WITH RATES
1-2 INCH/HR. WILL MONITOR AND UPDATE AMOUNTS IF NEEDED.

AT 4Z A 996 HPA LOW WAS LOCATED ABOUT 210 MILES S OF KMTP LIFTING
NNE PER LATEST PRESSURE FALLS...WITH RAPID DEEPENING EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE. WITH THE STEEP PRESSURE FALLS DUE EXPECT WINDS TO
CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA. DEPENDING ON HOW WINDS AND
VISIBILITIES TREND - THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A SHORT FUSED EXPANSION
OF THE BLIZZARD WARNING - WITH MOST LIKELY CANDIDATES BEING SE CT
AND POSSIBLY NYC. EXPECT HEAVIEST SNOWFALL ACROSS THE AREA
GENERALLY THROUGH 9Z THEN A TAPERING OFF FROM W TO E.

MODEL OUTPUT FOR TONIGHT REMAINS FAIRLY CLOSE...WITH GFS AND
ECMWF A BIT WETTER THAN NAM/WRF.

SREF ENSEMBLE WOULD SUGGEST A QPF BLEND IS PERHAPS THE WAY TO GO AT
THIS TIME. QPF OF AROUND 1/2 INCH TO 3/4 OF AN INCH IS EXPECTED.

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4.7" of snow in Port Jeff as of 12:01 AM Friday and starting to come down hard again as I went out to measure...with a gusty NE wind screaming off the Sound, moderate to sometimes heavy snow & fog...getting close to blizzard conditions out here...temp down to 17 F.

 

Measured 4.5" here in Port Jeff Station about 10 minutes ago...coming down as hard as it has all night.

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