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01/02/14 to 01/03/14 Snow Storm Observations


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Guest Pamela

Down to 19 F in Port Jeff.  At 9:00 PM, it appeared the temperature @ 850 mb was around -4 C over Long Island Sound.  Once it falls to -8 C, expect the air over the Sound to potentially become conditionally unstable as the sea surface temperature of the Sound is around 4 C and we need a delta of at least 12 C for this to occur.  With a stiff NE fetch over the Sound, I would think some very intense bands of snow could move over the Island...of course aided by the developing mid latitude cyclone south of the area...

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It may not seem heavy, but it's a good steady rate now even with relatively low echoes so the ratios may be starting to increase some. Temperatures are now near 21F with many areas around dipping into the upper teens. I'm not expecting very heavy echoes but maybe some 25 dbz rates would be nice. Remember that the max rates were not going to exceed an 1" per hour. 

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Don't freak out over the radar. The storm will keep backbuilding west and should build in intensity overhead as the low shifts north and tilts more negatively. EVery model has good snow over the entire area for at least 6-8 more hours. This isn't going to just shift east-it should pivot back more and more, although it will never have the complete classic look like with Boxing Day 2010.

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Mount holly 945 pm

 

THE STRONGEST SHORT WAVE SHOULD COME THROUGH BETWEEN
6Z AND 8Z THIS MORNING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF THE LATEST BAND
AFFECTING MONMOUTH AND OCEAN COUNTY WITH HEAVIER SNOW AFTER 08Z.

THE UPSHOT, WE DROPPED THE LOW END OF OUR PREVIOUS RANGES AND
ADDED ABOUT AN INCH OR TWO TO THE TOP RANGR. ADDITIONAL WATER
EQUIVALENT IS EXPECTED TO BE .25 TO .50 INCHES WITH HIGHER RATIOS
MAKING THAT CLOSER TO ABOUT 4 TO 7 ADDITIONAL INCHES.

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Oy vey is right the heavier echoes are actually thinning out and consolidating just south of brooklyn queens and Staten Island . Go figure my family in lakewood nj who expected much less then us ends up with the higher amounts. Very light snow out there people north of us must be really getting frustrated.

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Don't freak out over the radar. The storm will keep backbuilding west and should build in intensity overhead as the low shifts north and tilts more negatively. EVery model has good snow over the entire area for at least 6-8 more hours. This isn't going to just shift east-it should pivot back more and more, although it will never have the complete classic look like with Boxing Day 2010.

Yep, this lull was progged well on earlier runs of the RAP. If it's right, we get back into 30dbz bands before midnight. 

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Oy vey is right the heavier echoes are actually thinning out and consolidating just south of brooklyn queens and Staten Island . Go figure my family in lakewood nj who expected much less then us ends up with the higher amounts. Very light snow out there people north of us must be really getting frustrated.

 

 

Oy vey is right the heavier echoes are actually thinning out and consolidating just south of brooklyn queens and Staten Island . Go figure my family in lakewood nj who expected much less then us ends up with the higher amounts. Very light snow out there people north of us must be really getting frustrated.

And I don't think anyone expected that, though I thought it could happen based on recent history.Any report from down there.

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And I don't think anyone expected that, though I thought it could happen based on recent history.Any report from down there.

My brother in law tells me there's 4-5 inches on the ground there in lakewood , that's ocean county , the pictures he sent me look like 3 at most so I'm not sure :-)

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Don't freak out over the radar. The storm will keep backbuilding west and should build in intensity overhead as the low shifts north and tilts more negatively. EVery model has good snow over the entire area for at least 6-8 more hours. This isn't going to just shift east-it should pivot back more and more, although it will never have the complete classic look like with Boxing Day 2010.

Exactly! Things are going to really pick up in a few hours as the second part of the storm gets going and heavier bands begin to develop. These bands can develop anywhere. Those in Northern areas need not worry because you will have better snow ratios.

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StormTotalSnowWebFcst.png

 

New PHL map showing what I'm assuming is 10-12 in Eastern Sussex extending into Western Passaic and 8-10 in Morris extending into Eastern Passaic and Northern Essex. NYC has Passaic and Essex in the 6-8 range on its most recent (9:30pm) map. Quite the difference.

really have a hard time seeing thast verify in northern counties

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