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01/02/14 to 01/03/14 Snow Storm Observations


WeatherFox

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Up to 1.75" in Metuchen with 3/4" in the last 45 minutes or about 1" per hour.  3/8 mile visibility. 

 

In case nobody saw it, the NWS in Philly just upgraded the winter storm warning from 4-8" to 6-10" for many counties (Sussex, Morris, Somerset, Middlesex, Monmouth and Ocean, but not the western NJ counties or down south more).  New map is up showing increased snowfall.  I'm thinking someone in coastal Monmouth or Ocean or even several miles inland from the coast is going to get over a foot of snow, given their good start and the closer proximity to the storm offshore.   

http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=NJZ012&warncounty=NJC023&firewxzone=NJZ012&local_place1=&product1=Winter+Storm+Warning

StormTotalSnowWebFcst.png

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Up to 1.75" in Metuchen with 3/4" in the last 45 minutes or about 1" per hour.  3/8 mile visibility. 

 

In case nobody saw it, the NWS in Philly just upgraded the winter storm warning from 4-8" to 6-10" for many counties (Sussex, Morris, Somerset, Middlesex, Monmouth and Ocean, but not the western NJ counties or down south more).  New map is up showing increased snowfall.  I'm thinking someone in coastal Monmouth or Ocean or even several miles inland from the coast is going to get over a foot of snow, given their good start and the closer proximity to the storm offshore.   

http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=NJZ012&warncounty=NJC023&firewxzone=NJZ012&local_place1=&product1=Winter+Storm+Warning

StormTotalSnowWebFcst.png

 

we are going to do very well…ne monmouth is going to get crushed 

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well, if it starts snowing more than 1/8th inch per hour we might make that by daybreak, just kidding, not by midnight but maybe by 4am, in my experience this does not count as a snowstorm in NYC, but then I've been around for more than a few years (I'm old)

bro take this *bleep to the banter for real
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I see mount holly's new map...6-8" most areas with little small blobs of 8-10". Anyone have any idea how these little 8-10" areas end up on the map? Clearly computer generated...but how and why?

Upton's map seems to make more sense with 6-8" everywhere and 8-10 through long island

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0001
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0743 PM CST THU JAN 02 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN NJ/SERN NY INCLUDING LONG ISLAND/CT/RI/SERN
MA/DOWN EAST ME

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 030143Z - 030645Z

SUMMARY...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL IS
FORECAST THROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FROM PARTS OF NRN NJ
ENEWD ACROSS SRN/ERN NEW ENGLAND. ADDITIONALLY...BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS WINDS INCREASE WITH TIME.


DISCUSSION...SNOWFALL RATES OF UP TO -- AND IN LOCAL AREAS EXCEEDING
-- AN INCH PER HOUR ARE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS
THE SRN NEW ENGLAND VICINITY...AS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE
ERN THIRD OF THE U.S. OVERNIGHT. AS THE TROUGH ADVANCES EWD...A
SURFACE LOW -- NOW OFF THE COAST OF SERN VA/NERN NC -- IS PROGGED TO
UNDERGO RELATIVELY RAPID CYCLOGENESIS AS IT SHIFTS SLOWLY ENEWD OVER
THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS.

ATTM...THE BAND OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION EXTENDS FROM ERN VA --
WHERE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS OBSERVED -- NEWD ACROSS NJ AND LONG
ISLAND AND INTO SRN CT/RI/SERN MA...WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
SNOWFALL INDICATED ACROSS THESE AREAS.

LATEST SREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE HEAVIEST BAND OF SNOWFALL
WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT -- FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EWD ACROSS NRN
CT/MA/SRN VT/SRN NH/SRN ME...INLAND/WELL N OF THE ONGOING HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...HIGH-RES MODELS -- INCLUDING THE
NMM4...THE HRRR...AND A LOCAL NSSL 4KM WRF -- DEPICT THE HEAVIEST
ONSHORE PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN CONFINED TO THE SERN NEW ENGLAND
VICINITY. THIS IS MUCH MORE IN LINE WITH CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...AND
GIVEN THE SURFACE LOW PROGGED TO TRACK ENEWD AWAY FROM THE COAST
WITH TIME...THE SERN NEW ENGLAND VICINITY REMAINS THE AREA OF
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR SUSTAINED/HEAVY ONSHORE SNOWFALL OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. IN ADDITION...AS WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THIS
AREA IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE DEEPENING OFFSHORE LOW...BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN SOME AREAS ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED REDUCED
VISIBILITY/BLOWING SNOW.

..GOSS.. 01/03/2014

 

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no offense but if you had a legitimate reason for your prediction than we would not get mad. You have no reason to why you think 4"

actually, as a met for well, 30 odd years now, I have in fact been giving some rationale, I mean if you bother looking at my posts...but at any rate I love Monmouth and the S shore, not so much NYC, good night and nothing wins like verification

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6-8" inches is doable imho.

 

 

I don't know why some posters are saying nyc only sees 4" the way it is coming down in Brooklyn right now I think we're going to bust High

 

Mesoscale Discussion 1          Next MD > mcd0001.gif
   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0001   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   0743 PM CST THU JAN 02 2014   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN NJ/SERN NY INCLUDING LONG ISLAND/CT/RI/SERN   MA/DOWN EAST ME   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW    VALID 030143Z - 030645Z   SUMMARY...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL IS   FORECAST THROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FROM PARTS OF NRN NJ   ENEWD ACROSS SRN/ERN NEW ENGLAND.  ADDITIONALLY...BLIZZARD   CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS WINDS INCREASE WITH TIME.   DISCUSSION...SNOWFALL RATES OF UP TO -- AND IN LOCAL AREAS EXCEEDING   -- AN INCH PER HOUR ARE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS   THE SRN NEW ENGLAND VICINITY...AS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE   ERN THIRD OF THE U.S. OVERNIGHT.  AS THE TROUGH ADVANCES EWD...A   SURFACE LOW -- NOW OFF THE COAST OF SERN VA/NERN NC -- IS PROGGED TO   UNDERGO RELATIVELY RAPID CYCLOGENESIS AS IT SHIFTS SLOWLY ENEWD OVER   THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS.     ATTM...THE BAND OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION EXTENDS FROM ERN VA --   WHERE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS OBSERVED -- NEWD ACROSS NJ AND LONG   ISLAND AND INTO SRN CT/RI/SERN MA...WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY   SNOWFALL INDICATED ACROSS THESE AREAS.   LATEST SREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE HEAVIEST BAND OF SNOWFALL   WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT -- FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EWD ACROSS NRN   CT/MA/SRN VT/SRN NH/SRN ME...INLAND/WELL N OF THE ONGOING HEAVIER   PRECIPITATION.  HOWEVER...HIGH-RES MODELS -- INCLUDING THE   NMM4...THE HRRR...AND A LOCAL NSSL 4KM WRF -- DEPICT THE HEAVIEST   ONSHORE PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN CONFINED TO THE SERN NEW ENGLAND   VICINITY.  THIS IS MUCH MORE IN LINE WITH CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...AND   GIVEN THE SURFACE LOW PROGGED TO TRACK ENEWD AWAY FROM THE COAST   WITH TIME...THE SERN NEW ENGLAND VICINITY REMAINS THE AREA OF   HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR SUSTAINED/HEAVY ONSHORE SNOWFALL OVER THE   NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  IN ADDITION...AS WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THIS   AREA IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE DEEPENING OFFSHORE LOW...BLIZZARD   CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN SOME AREAS ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED REDUCED   VISIBILITY/BLOWING SNOW.   ..GOSS.. 01/03/2014   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...
 
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