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January Banter Thread


H2O

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Yeah, we all realize the only snow DC gets is of the modeled variety.  The highlights of our winter season are the runs of the models like the Euro at 12Z yesterday.  We live in a fantasy world where you can build snowmen and shovel modeled snow.  They really should have some therapists for this condition.

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I'm pretty sure I got maybe 4hrs of sleep last night and most of that was on the couch with K cuddled up in the nook of my arm. Not sure what's going on with her. When down fine at 8, woke up at 11 and it was 2am when I finally gave up and moved her to the couch with me. I'm tired.

Sounds similar to what we went through up until two weeks ago. We think it was because of her teething - she cross cut, which is supposed to b pretty painful - and some aspect of sleep reversion in kids around a year old.

Good luck. Remember...it's just a phase!

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As the DT turns:

 

"But clearly something is wrong with the model when it comes to these specific individual weather events.
Taken verbatim the midday European model shows no snow tall for Washington DC Baltimore Northwest Virginia which is a huge change from what was showing early Tuesday morning - a 2-5" snow and Monday afternoon -- 6-12". 

Clearly there are going to be some adjustments when I update the new first guess forecast probability map later on this afternoon."

 

 

Remember though - he doesn't model hug.

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I'm glad I've had literally no investment in this one.  I was intrigued yesterday, but all along I haven't been bothered one way or the other.  I'm falling back to a standard position of not investing anything unless and untill all models show a hit for a few days of runs at short to mid lead times.  I probably should have done so sooner, but I'm not too proud to admit that I would often let enthusiasm get in the way of practicality.

 

I'm all in on next winter though.  I'm going for a Nino of around +0.8-1.2 and more blocking than not.  Money.

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As the DT turns:

"But clearly something is wrong with the model when it comes to these specific individual weather events.

Taken verbatim the midday European model shows no snow tall for Washington DC Baltimore Northwest Virginia which is a huge change from what was showing early Tuesday morning - a 2-5" snow and Monday afternoon -- 6-12".

Clearly there are going to be some adjustments when I update the new first guess forecast probability map later on this afternoon."

Remember though - he doesn't model hug.

Probably crying in front of the Euro alter.

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As long as BWI doesn't get more than 5.7 inches for the rest of the winter, we will tie or break the consecutive 4 year snow futility record. Hopefully we won't screw it up by nickel-and-diming our way to 6 more inches or something.

Happy New Year.

I'm all in for another whole season of futility.

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Speak for yourself. I'd love to get six one inch snowfalls between now and mid-March.

As long as BWI doesn't get more than 5.7 inches for the rest of the winter, we will tie or break the consecutive 4 year snow futility record. Hopefully we won't screw it up by nickel-and-diming our way to 6 more inches or something.

 

Happy New Year.

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