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Record Breaking Cold January 3-4 & 7-8 Discussion & Observations

bluewave

By bluewave,
in New York City Metro

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Stormlover74

Stormlover74

Posted
Posted

I don't think it will be nearly that cold tonight. If the HRRR were right, I'd be between -5 and -10 which is not happening. I don't even think zero is possible because highs are running a few degrees warmer than forecast and the winds will be up well into tonight. I think 5 will be the lowest. 

Forecast was low 20s for you so pretty much on target, but I agree below zero will be mostly N&W of the city. 4-7 above in and around the city/urban NE NJ. The GFS has EWR down to 5 by 7pm tonight so temps will have to plummet after to dark to be on track for that.

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Guest Pamela

Guest Pamela

Posted
Posted

the models are way over done with the cold...it won't get that cold...

In urban areas I agree...in the countryside...it might.

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

Posted
Posted

During the 1980's, both Bridgehampton & Patchogue (official NWS cooperatives on the S. Shore of Long Island) fell into the teens below zero on more than one occasion.

 

The only reason I'm not totally sure there will be double digit below zero lows on LI tonight is that the light NW wind and then possibly a light SW wind just before sunrise may prevent it, if however alot of places go calm by midnight I would not at all be surprised to see -10 or -15 because of the snow cover...ISP got to -7 in 1988 in a fairly similar setup to tonight I believe, snow on the ground, 850s -10 to -15C and a high overhead.

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Guest Pamela

Guest Pamela

Posted
Posted

The only reason I'm not totally sure there will be double digit below zero lows on LI tonight is that the light NW wind and then possibly a light SW wind just before sunrise may prevent it, if however alot of places go calm by midnight I would not at all be surprised to see -10 or -15 because of the snow cover...ISP got to -7 in 1988 in a fairly similar setup to tonight I believe, snow on the ground, 850s -10 to -15C and a high overhead.

I think it is unlikely as well...though the thermal antics at KFOK make Lead, South Dakota look thoroughly pedestrian...

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

Posted
Posted

I think it is unlikely as well...though the thermal antics at KFOK make Lead, South Dakota look thoroughly pedestrian...

 

I see the MOS has them -4 and -1 respectively, I'm trying to remember the coldest they have gotten in the last 10 years, I thought they got to -15 or -20 during February 03 at some point but can't remember.

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SnoSki14

SnoSki14

Posted
Posted

Forecast was low 20s for you so pretty much on target, but I agree below zero will be mostly N&W of the city. 4-7 above in and around the city/urban NE NJ. The GFS has EWR down to 5 by 7pm tonight so temps will have to plummet after to dark to be on track for that.

 

Forecast was 17-18F, so it's definitely been warmer than that.

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Stormlover74

Stormlover74

Posted
Posted

Forecast was 17-18F, so it's definitely been warmer than that.

Yeah this morning I saw low 20s but they must've dropped it.

 

The other thing is lows are likely to bottom out early and start climbing before sunrise if we're going to hit upper 20s/near 30 tomorrow.

 

Tuesdays cold will be more impressive but not sure the lows will be lower, just that temps won't move much during the day.

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

Posted
Posted

Yeah this morning I saw low 20s but they must've dropped it.

The other thing is lows are likely to bottom out early and start climbing before sunrise if we're going to hit upper 20s/near 30 tomorrow.

Tuesdays cold will be more impressive but not sure the lows will be lower, just that temps won't move much during the day.

The lows will be colder at places like EWR NYC LGA and JFK where the strong winds will negate the heat island but suburban places may be warmer Tuesday morning than they will be tonight
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pazzo83

pazzo83

Posted
Posted

I don't think it will be nearly that cold tonight. If the HRRR were right, I'd be between -5 and -10 which is not happening. I don't even think zero is possible because highs are running a few degrees warmer than forecast and the winds will be up well into tonight. I think 5 will be the lowest. 

 

Steady N wind around 10mph + snow pack will yield the lowest possible temps for KNYC.

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RutgersWx92

RutgersWx92

Posted
Posted

I don't think it will be nearly that cold tonight. If the HRRR were right, I'd be between -5 and -10 which is not happening. I don't even think zero is possible because highs are running a few degrees warmer than forecast and the winds will be up well into tonight. I think 5 will be the lowest. 

I think those temps are too low for the city and immediate surrounding areas but in the suburbs that radiate well (like here) I definitely think we will get below zero.  And the high here so far has been 18 which is exactly what was forecasted.  Down to 17 now.  GFS and NAM have the winds becoming light by 00z tonight and the GFS is forecasting a low of -8 which is probably extreme but we will see.

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ag3

ag3

Posted
Posted

no chance  central park reaches zero tonight..temps are warmer than anticipated at this time of day..

 

NYC is 16 degrees.

 

12z Euro has NYC with a high of 16-17 degrees.

And the 12z Euro has NYC dropping to -.5 to -1 tomorrow morning.

 

FRI 18Z 03-JAN  -9.4   -15.1    1020      62      64    0.03     526     510 
SAT 12Z 04-JAN -18.1    -6.9    1033      82      68    0.00     559     534
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TWCCraig

TWCCraig

Posted
Posted

Would be a long shot for NYC to go below 0. If we had decent CAA and a decent N wind NYC would easily drop below 0 tonight. I don't see it happening for NYC. HRRR is a bit overdone for the city, I think it's good for areas outside the city though. Surprisingly, the 4km NAM which picks up on the UHI effect very well still has the city going below 0. We'll see.

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Hailstorm

Hailstorm

Posted
Posted

Would be a long shot for NYC to go below 0. If we had decent CAA and a decent N wind NYC would easily drop below 0 tonight. I don't see it happening for NYC. HRRR is a bit overdone for the city, I think it's good for areas outside the city though. Surprisingly, the 4km NAM which picks up on the UHI effect very well still has the city going below 0. We'll see.

I already am down to 15 degrees in Brooklyn, which is 3 degrees off today's high of 18. I have a stiff sustained North wind at 15 MPH. Getting down to -1 in the outer boroughs where there is less of a UHI is a real possibility tonight with essentially no compaction of the snow depth from today's full sunshine. We have about 15 hours left of falling temps. Even if we only drop 1 degree per hour, we would still make it to below zero.

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