Record Breaking Cold January 3-4 & 7-8 Discussion & Observations

[PB GFI]

By Day 7 the trough is back into the East  . D 7  thru 9 temps look normal but once to D10  thru  D15 it looks cold again  by D 11 We may not be as cold as this last outbreak that's probably asking a lot however , Minus 25 air at 850 with no snow cover could still get you close to 10 again at nite  .

The Lake Effect machine will b open for business again with all  that NW flow  .

 

I have a feeling that later in the timeframe , there will be a deep system off the  EC , having this source region coupled with where the PNA , AO and PNA are headed makes me like our chances  .

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

East bay was about fifty percent frozen which is very impressive and definitly the most since 04 but not 90 percent like 94 so I guess te winter has been pretty legit thus far

[Chaser25973]

Those were much more intense than the current crop of Arctic outbreaks that we have been experiencing in recent years. You can see the same pattern playing out across the rest of the country.

 

TVMFrigidNights2014_NYC_med.jpg

 

That's a 40 year data pool. Show me 1900 - 1940. Show me 1700 - 1740. Show me 1000 - 1040. I mean come on. All that's saying is right now, temps over 40 years are warmer. No one is really disputing that. But what we are disputing is that this is any different than any other warming period that has ever occurred in the history of the planet Earth.

[bluewave]

That's a 40 year data pool. Show me 1900 - 1940. Show me 1700 - 1740. Show me 1000 - 1040. I mean come on. All that's saying is right now, temps over 40 years are warmer. No one is really disputing that. But what we are disputing is that this is any different than any other warming period that has ever occurred in the history of the planet Earth.

 

I don't get the point that you are trying to make. If you want to go back further, then feel free to plot the

charts out. Obviously, the planet has been warmer and colder in the past than it is today. But people

are generally more interested in weather trends that are occurring during or just before the era in which

they are living. It's always interesting to compare the temperatures to the trends for added context.

 

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/

[Rjay]

Not trying to be annoying but Freeport is not near the gsb it's part of the western bays. In between the meadow brook and wantagh parkway is east bay where I currently live I'm about to take a drive to scope out the ice. It's very hard to freeze because of the narrow channels in between the grass islands that have very fast currents unlike the wide open gsb. The last and only time I have ever seen east bay freeze was 94

After all these years I really didn't know. Thanks for letting me know. The maps I have looked at over the years never distinguished between the bays. I always saw "The Great South Bay" on maps for marked for the water between LI and the barrier islands.

[donsutherland1]

By Day 7 the trough is back into the East  . D 7  thru 9 temps look normal but once to D10  thru  D15 it looks cold again  by D 11 We may not be as cold as this last outbreak that's probably asking a lot however , Minus 25 air at 850 with no snow cover could still get you close to 10 again at nite  .

The Lake Effect machine will b open for business again with all  that NW flow  .

 

I have a feeling that later in the timeframe , there will be a deep system off the  EC , having this source region coupled with where the PNA , AO and PNA are headed makes me like our chances  .

The Euro and its ensembles seem to be pointing to a nice return of cold to very cold weather. The 18z GFS looked a little better when compared to the 12z run. It will be interesting to see how this turns out. I suspect cold with some opportunities for snowfall may be a reasonable scenario, but that's still relatively far into the future.

[sferic]

That's a 40 year data pool. Show me 1900 - 1940. Show me 1700 - 1740. Show me 1000 - 1040. I mean come on. All that's saying is right now, temps over 40 years are warmer. No one is really disputing that. But what we are disputing is that this is any different than any other warming period that has ever occurred in the history of the planet Earth.

 

 

Good point, and also artic and glacial ice core sampling do show earth has been warming but you make a good point.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

After all these years I really didn't know. Thanks for letting me know. The maps I have looked at over the years never distinguished between the bays. I always saw "The Great South Bay" on maps for marked for the water between LI and the barrier islands.

Learn something new everyday, I certainly do! I grew up on east bay fishing and claming. A really crazy story from another colder time the men who were building the wantagh parkway to jones beach in the 20's got stuck on great island (in the middle of the bay) for months after the bay froze so thick ships could not make it. It was super rural out here in the 20s pretty much a different world. I recommend anyone taking a drive to see the ice tomorrow before its gone its worth it for the incredible sight! And it could be years or decades before it happens again!

[nzucker]

Learn something new everyday, I certainly do! I grew up on east bay fishing and claming. A really crazy story from another colder time the men who were building the wantagh parkway to jones beach in the 20's got stuck on great island (in the middle of the bay) for months after the bay froze so thick ships could not make it. It was super rural out here in the 20s pretty much a different world. I recommend anyone taking a drive to see the ice tomorrow before its gone its worth it for the incredible sight! And it could be years or decades before it happens again!

This wasn't that unusual of an arctic outbreak. There was probably just as much ice, or more, around January 16, 2009 or January 24, 2011. Even last year had a very cold period at the end of January.

[TWCCraig]

Learn something new everyday, I certainly do! I grew up on east bay fishing and claming. A really crazy story from another colder time the men who were building the wantagh parkway to jones beach in the 20's got stuck on great island (in the middle of the bay) for months after the bay froze so thick ships could not make it. It was super rural out here in the 20s pretty much a different world. I recommend anyone taking a drive to see the ice tomorrow before its gone its worth it for the incredible sight! And it could be years or decades before it happens again!

 

Bay froze up here last year. The GSB looked much more frozen and better last year than this year. Looks like crap the past few days. GSB freezes up more often than one would think. Maybe where you are year or decades... here it freezes up every year to every other.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Bay froze up here last year. The GSB looked much more frozen and better last year than this year. Looks like crap the past few days. GSB freezes up more often than one would think. Maybe where you are year or decades... here it freezes up every year to every other.

Like I said previously the western bays are really more a series of channels with tons of water move not and this tuff to freeze. The wind direction was perfect to pile up the ice on eastern portion of east bay near the wantagh parkway. I have no doubt the big shallow open gsb freezes much more frequently. Shallow is important just as shallow Lake Erie freezes much quicker and more often then deep Lake Ontario. Durning the little ice age the ocean off Long Island froze several times now that's cold!

[NorthShoreWx]

This wasn't that unusual of an arctic outbreak. There was probably just as much ice, or more, around January 16, 2009 or January 24, 2011. Even last year had a very cold period at the end of January.

 

January 31, 2009 from dock in Patchogue: