Record Breaking Cold January 3-4 & 7-8 Discussion & Observations

[BxEngine]

Yea Sat am 60 hours from 0z tonight

Which isnt Saturday night, which is what his point was lol

[WE GOT HIM]

Which isnt Saturday night, which is what his point was lol

yea, corrected it

[Rjay]

Euro still shows temps below 0 for NNJ parts of CNJ, NYC, Nassau and W Suff after the storm passes (according to weatherbell)...the numbers on wb look too low

[Hailstorm]

With a -1 degree actual temp with winds between 10-15 MPH, that would equate to a -20 degree wind chill which would warrant a Wind Chill Advisory for NYC if that came to fruition.

 

[RutgersWx92]

Wow, 12z GFS MOS has SMQ getting down to -8F Saturday morning.

[bluewave]

The historic blocking that has developed this year near Alaska got the ball rolling toward

the record cold that is showing up in the forecast. That block has been a persistent 

feature for much of 2013. The strengthening  in recent weeks allowed the coldest readings

in the Northern Hemisphere to shift over to North America. This shift has been a big departure

for the 2006-2012 era when the coldest readings relative to means dominated the Eurasian

side of the Northern Hemisphere during this time of year. All that was needed was for the

+AO pattern to become just negative enough with a Davis Strait block for the cold to

invade the Northeast.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[WE GOT HIM]

The historic blocking that has developed this year near Alaska got the ball rolling toward

the record cold that is showing up in the forecast. That block has been a persistent 

feature for much of 2013. The strengthening  in recent weeks allowed the coldest readings

in the Northern Hemisphere to shift over to North America. This shift has been a big departure

for the 2006-2012 era when the coldest readings relative to means dominated the Eurasian

side of the Northern Hemisphere during this time of year. All that was needed was for the

+AO pattern to become just negative enough with a Davis Strait block for the cold to

invade the Northeast.

 

Its too bad temps will warm up before the next shot, I wonder if we could have had some portions of the east river freeze up

- Do you know the last time that happened? Would love to see that again

[JBG]

Its too bad temps will warm up before the next shot, I wonder if we could have had some portions of the east river freeze up

- Do you know the last time that happened? Would love to see that again

1977 maybe? Or maybe 1985?

[bluewave]

Its too bad temps will warm up before the next shot, I wonder if we could have had some portions of the east river freeze up

- Do you know the last time that happened? Would love to see that again

 

During January 1977 large sections of Long Island Sound froze up. The back bays can freeze up the easiest after

several days of very cold temperatures.

[BrooklynSnow]

Upton now has KNYC getting down to 0 tonight.  What are the chances that actually happens?  Or get to -1?

[SnowGoose69]

Upton now has KNYC getting down to 0 tonight. What are the chances that actually happens? Or get to -1?

The winds look too light to me, I think they will only make it to about 4 or 5 as the heat island effect will be able to take shape, they may pull it off Monday night though...the suburban areas though may get insanely cold tonight

[rossi]

Anything new on GFS for Sunday/Monday event?

[mob1]

Anything new on GFS for Sunday/Monday event?

Still cuts west of us and temps spike well into the 40's. Impressive cold follows, temps briefly touch 50 in SE areas but are in the teens 12-15 hours later.

[WintersGrasp]

My forecasted high for Tuesday is NINE! Wow. When is the last time NE NJ or EWR has had a high temp in the single digits ?!

[mob1]

My forecasted high for Tuesday is NINE! Wow. When is the last time NE NJ or EWR has had a high temp in the single digits ?!

Impressive but you might get screwed by a midnight high in the low teens. We'll see, overall though some very impressive cold and maybe some snow later in the week.

[pazzo83]

The heat island, she is fierce:

 

Central Park: 14F

Downtown Manhattan: 23F

[sferic]

Can NYC/LI see below zero tonight and will Tuesday rival or exceed extremely low daily max and nighttime lows?

[SnowGoose69]

Hard to believe the HRRR is right here, but if it is this crazy for tonight...

 

[TWCCraig]

High temps are a bit higher than expected. I hope NYC doesn't reach 20, 18 now

[earthlight]

[WintersGrasp]

Hard to believe the HRRR is right here, but if it is this crazy for tonight...

 

WOW the entire state of NJ below 0!

[WintersGrasp]

How does it calculate those temperatures ? Maybe lower elevations = lower temps....for example, I'm in that area just about 10 miles NNW of Staten Island or so....in the light white area (right around 0)....and I am elevated more so than the area east of me in a valley and forecasted -5. Interesting!

[nzucker]

Tuesday morning will be colder with lower daytime highs...NYC is only getting to around -17C now but will reach -25C 850s by Tuesday morning. Surface winds aren't as favorable but it will be colder airmass.

[Guest Pamela]

During the 1980's, both Bridgehampton & Patchogue (official NWS cooperatives on the S. Shore of Long Island) fell into the teens below zero on more than one occasion.

[Guest Pamela]

During the 1980's, both Bridgehampton & Patchogue (official NWS cooperatives on the S. Shore of Long Island) fell into the teens below zero on more than one occasion.

The record low for Long Island is -23 F on January 22, 1961 at Upton...

http://www.bnl.gov/weather/4cast/01-jantemp.html

[nzucker]

The record low for Long Island is -23 F on January 22, 1961 at Upton...

I wonder how cold it can get in Westchester's elevated valleys...maybe -30F? Or is the sand's radiative effects more powerful than interior elevation for record cold.

[Hailstorm]

Surprised there isn't a Wind Chill Advisory posted for NYC tonight. Has it been a decade or more since NYC's last WCA?

[Guest Pamela]

I wonder how cold it can get in Westchester's elevated valleys...maybe -30F? Or is the sand's radiative effects more powerful than interior elevation for record cold.

Carmel...across the county line in Putnam County once hit -24 F...and since that co-op tends to run a bit warm..-30 F in northern Westchester is in the realm of possibility in some high valley. I think Bedford Hills all time low is -19 F...but that station is in a built up area which makes it harder to record very low temps. There were also a lot of gaps in the BH record.

The Yorktown Heights record does not help us any...as the station is on top of a hill and radiates poorly.

[SnoSki14]

I don't think it will be nearly that cold tonight. If the HRRR were right, I'd be between -5 and -10 which is not happening. I don't even think zero is possible because highs are running a few degrees warmer than forecast and the winds will be up well into tonight. I think 5 will be the lowest. 

[Hailstorm]

hrrr_t2m_nyc_16.png

Lol, -11 at LGA.