Record Breaking Cold January 3-4 & 7-8 Discussion & Observations

[NorthShoreWx]

I guess you meant something like this:

 

http://www.treknature.com/gallery/North_America/Canada/photo91037.htm

 

Very unlikely, but not unheard of.  There were waterspouts sighted over the sound in an arctic outbreak in mid-November 1986. 

 

CORRECTION...date was 11/21/1987.  Note the mid afternoon temperatures:

 

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KISP/1987/11/21/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA

[NorthShoreWx]

Should note that there was no significant sound effect snowfall associated with the arctic outbreak on 11/21/87.  There may have been some light flurries about, not all related to sound effect, but no accumulations anywhere.  The waterspouts were seen in association with arctic sea smoke.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Should note that there was no significant sound effect snowfall associated with the arctic outbreak on 11/21/87. There may have been some light flurries about, not all related to sound effect, but no accumulations anywhere. The waterspouts were seen in association with arctic sea smoke.

I agree about the sea smoke. Down in south Florida when you have an artic outbreak (low 30s) the sea smoke over the Gulf Stream is incredible! The wind is going to have to be perfectly aligned with the sound for anything of concequence. Fetch is super important for lake/sound effect. I hope it happens growing up on the south shore you see the ocean effect in the form of clouds offshore I always wanted to be on a boat 60 miles out to watch it rip

[tim]

...if it was to happen..wouldn't it be restricted to the 

north fork?

[Chaser25973]

I agree about the sea smoke. Down in south Florida when you have an artic outbreak (low 30s) the sea smoke over the Gulf Stream is incredible! The wind is going to have to be perfectly aligned with the sound for anything of concequence. Fetch is super important for lake/sound effect. I hope it happens growing up on the south shore you see the ocean effect in the form of clouds offshore I always wanted to be on a boat 60 miles out to watch it rip

 

[bluewave]

I agree about the sea smoke. Down in south Florida when you have an artic outbreak (low 30s) the sea smoke over the Gulf Stream is incredible! The wind is going to have to be perfectly aligned with the sound for anything of concequence. Fetch is super important for lake/sound effect. I hope it happens growing up on the south shore you see the ocean effect in the form of clouds offshore I always wanted to be on a boat 60 miles out to watch it rip

 

The sound effect potential is showing up near the Twin Forks on the GFS.

 

MTP 

 

42 01/07 06Z 27 23 255 32 0.02 0.01 522 526 -11.8 -18.8 1004.2 97 -SN 028BKN051 CLR 281BKN385 40 27 5.2

48 01/07 12Z 21 15 278 30 0.01 0.01 510 518 -20.5 -28.1 1010.2 68 -SN 024BKN043 CLR CLR 27 21 15.6

54 01/07 18Z 19 13 275 30 0.01 0.01 503 515 -21.9 -31.1 1015.1 85 -SN 029BKN055 CLR CLR 21 19 20.0

60 01/08 00Z 19 14 279 30 0.01 0.01 509 526 -22.0 -29.2 1022.6 74 -SN 040BKN068 CLR CLR 19 19 16.2

[pazzo83]

With respect to Chicago:

 

Five lowest maximum temperatures:

1. -11°, 12/24/1983 and 1/18/1994

2. -10°, 1/25/1897

3. -8°, 2/9/1899

4. -7°, 1/16/1977

5. -6°, 1/4/1884, 2/9/1933, 1/29/1966, and 12/23/1983

 

Five lowest minimum temperatures:

1. -27°, 1/20/1985

2. -26°, 1/10/1982

3. -25°, 1/16/1982 and 12/24/1983

4. -23°, 12/24/1872, 1/17/1982, and 1/19/1985

5. -22°, 1/21/1984

 

Thanks Don.  Record low max is in jeopardy in Chi-town:

 

Monday:

Windy. Partly cloudy. Areas of blowing snow. Very cold with record breaking temperatures likely. Temperatures nearly steady around 13 to 17 below. Wind chills as low as 35 below to 45 below zero. West winds 20 to 30 mph until late afternoon decreasing to 15 to 25 mph late in the afternoon. Gusts up to 40 mph.

[donsutherland1]

Thanks Don.  Record low max is in jeopardy in Chi-town:

 

Monday:

Windy. Partly cloudy. Areas of blowing snow. Very cold with record breaking temperatures likely. Temperatures nearly steady around 13 to 17 below. Wind chills as low as 35 below to 45 below zero. West winds 20 to 30 mph until late afternoon decreasing to 15 to 25 mph late in the afternoon. Gusts up to 40 mph.

The midnight temperature will probably make all the difference. During the daytime, I have little doubt that the temperature will remain below -10°.

[pazzo83]

The midnight temperature will probably make all the difference. During the daytime, I have little doubt that the temperature will remain below -10°.

 

Ah yep.  We'll have to see where they are at midnight.

[bluewave]

With respect to Chicago:

 

Five lowest maximum temperatures:

1. -11°, 12/24/1983 and 1/18/1994

2. -10°, 1/25/1897

3. -8°, 2/9/1899

4. -7°, 1/16/1977

5. -6°, 1/4/1884, 2/9/1933, 1/29/1966, and 12/23/1983

 

Five lowest minimum temperatures:

1. -27°, 1/20/1985

2. -26°, 1/10/1982

3. -25°, 1/16/1982 and 12/24/1983

4. -23°, 12/24/1872, 1/17/1982, and 1/19/1985

5. -22°, 1/21/1984

 

Don, it's interesting how the long term steady January temperatures around the Chicago metropolitan area allowed them to

have some of their coldest readings in the 1980's. The NYC metropolitan region has seen a rising January temperature trend

with our lowest January temperatures further back in time before 1950. Both metro areas show a steady 

February temperature rise with the coldest readings for NYC in 1934. It has been getting especially difficult

to set record low temperatures around in NYC in February, but we have had greater success in January.

 

January

 

 

 

February

 

 

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

 

https://twitter.com/thestormreport/status/419906197236367360

[BxEngine]

https://twitter.com/thestormreport/status/419906197236367360

Not that uncommon. Ice chunks are south of the TZ right now.

[NorthShoreWx]

...if it was to happen..wouldn't it be restricted to the 

north fork?

 

No,  South fork too, especially east (e.g., probably not Southampton).  Don't discount the impact of additional fetch over the bays for KHTO - KMTP

[Hailstorm]

At least quite a few people living in and around NYC proper will likely not deem this pending arctic shot to live up to its hype, relative to what all the local media outlets are incessantly discussing about right now. Upton keeps on raising the forecast lows AND the highs for Monday and Tuesday. At this rate, it is likely that NYC won't tie or go below the record low for both days.

 

Also, look at how incredibly deceiving this map could look to a NYC viewer at first glance. Wind Chill Warnings and Advisories across then nation are so widespread, but NYC won't even get close to advisory criteria. That is an epic failure in itself with this arctic short considering the very cold 850 mb temps, not to mention that it will only last for 2 days maximum. I am just frustrated right now to see all this potential go down the drain with what was modeled the past two weeks.

 

[nzucker]

I think Upton is way too warm. In urban areas, afternoon highs should be around 10F and lows 0-5F given 850s dropping near -25C.

[SnoSki14]

Our highs during the day on Tuesday may not crack 10F, so I don't know what more you want as that alone is an incredible feat with sunny skies. It's the timing of the 850s and CAA that will cause us not to see zero degree readings but this is a severe air mass for a huge chunk of the country. I honestly think our actual temperatures will be even colder than forecast as these type of air masses can often overperform

 

Also we are not the northern plains, we don't live inland, you don't live in the midwest so it's extremely difficult to get below zero type cold around here. 

[Hailstorm]

I think Upton is way too warm. In urban areas, afternoon highs should be around 10F and lows 0-5F given 850s dropping near -25C.

I think they are a bit warm too, but they nailed Saturday mornings temps spot on from 4 days out. What does the 12z GFS and Euro suggest for our lows?

 

Our highs during the day on Tuesday may not crack 10F, so I don't know what more you want as that alone is an incredible feat with sunny skies. It's the timing of the 850s and CAA that will cause us not to see zero degree readings but this is a severe air mass for a huge chunk of the country. I honestly think our actual temperatures will be even colder than forecast as these type of air masses can often overperform

 

Also we are not the northern plains, we don't live inland, you don't live in the midwest so it's extremely difficult to get below zero type cold around here. 

I apologize but I have a cold air fetish. I never experienced a sub-zero reading before. When I saw that Atlantic City went below zero on Saturday, I became so baffled as to why NYC couldn't do it also, as both locations are on the coast and are urbanized.

[TWCCraig]

I think they are a bit warm too, but they nailed Saturday mornings temps spot on from 4 days out. What does the 12z GFS and Euro suggest for our lows?

I apologize but I have a cold air fetish. When I saw that Atlantic City went below zero on Saturday, I became so baffled as to why NYC couldn't do it also, as both locations are on the coast and are urbanized.

KACY got below 0 because it is inland. The airport is located inland where it is very undeveloped and thus the reason why it was able to get as cold as it did.

[Hailstorm]

KACY got below 0 because it is inland. The airport is located inland where it is very undeveloped and thus the reason why it was able to get as cold as it did.

Thanks for the clarification. Do we know how cold Atlantic City proper got on Saturday morning?

[TWCCraig]

Thanks for the clarification. Do we know how cold Atlantic City proper got on Saturday morning?

 

No official station in the urban part but according to personal stations they got down to around 13.

[doncat]

I think they are a bit warm too, but they nailed Saturday mornings temps spot on from 4 days out. What does the 12z GFS and Euro suggest for our lows?

 

I apologize but I have a cold air fetish. I never experienced a sub-zero reading before. When I saw that Atlantic City went below zero on Saturday, I became so baffled as to why NYC couldn't do it also, as both locations are on the coast and are urbanized.

I love the cold also but you should probobly move out of brooklyn lf you love the cold lol. I would just hate living in an urban area that doesn't radiate . Last night for instance my station got down to 12 while urban areas mostly stayed in the mid 20's.

[donsutherland1]

Don, it's interesting how the long term steady January temperatures around the Chicago metropolitan area allowed them to

have some of their coldest readings in the 1980's. The NYC metropolitan region has seen a rising January temperature trend

with our lowest January temperatures further back in time before 1950. Both metro areas show a steady 

February temperature rise with the coldest readings for NYC in 1934. It has been getting especially difficult

to set record low temperatures around in NYC in February, but we have had greater success in January.

 

 

I agree, Bluewave. The general long-term warming that has been occurring in the mean temperatures has not been uniform across the CONUS. I'm sure that has made some difference in Chicago's cold temperature extremes in the 1980s, but other factors likely contributed, as well. It will be interesting to see how things evolve in coming years e.g., whether NYC's January means continue to warm more quickly than Chicago's or whether the difference narrows.

[pazzo83]

I think Upton is way too warm. In urban areas, afternoon highs should be around 10F and lows 0-5F given 850s dropping near -25C.

 

Which would be the coldest temps we've seen in 10 years.  A fairly significant event.  This outbreak isn't as strong as Jan 94 or Feb 96.

[Chris L]

Which would be the coldest temps we've seen in 10 years.  A fairly significant event.  This outbreak isn't as strong as Jan 94 or Feb 96.

 

It is and will rival January 1994 when its said and done.

[donsutherland1]

With temperatures in such cities as Green Bay, Des Moines, Kansas City, and St. Louis generally running above the MOS (NAM and GFS) forecasts for 0z, it appears that the cold air is arriving somewhat more slowly than modeled. If so, it is plausible that NYC could have a temperature at or above 20° at midnight tomorrow night, precluding a maximum temperature in the teens for 1/7. The afternoon might be somewhat colder, though. However, in the absence of a fresh snow cover, I suspect that the afternoon temperature will rise into the middle teens and the coldest minimum temperature will probably wind up in the 8°-11° range despite impressive 850 mb temperatures.

[NorthShoreWx]

Temperature has gone up 10 degrees here in the past 10 minutes.  A warm front has passed methinks.

[SnoSki14]

With temperatures in such cities as Green Bay, Des Moines, Kansas City, and St. Louis generally running above the MOS (NAM and GFS) forecasts for 0z, it appears that the cold air is arriving somewhat more slowly than modeled. If so, it is plausible that NYC could have a temperature at or above 20° at midnight tomorrow night, precluding a maximum temperature in the teens for 1/7. The afternoon might be somewhat colder, though. However, in the absence of a fresh snow cover, I suspect that the afternoon temperature will rise into the middle teens and the coldest minimum temperature will probably wind up in the 8°-11° range despite impressive 850 mb temperatures.

 

So why aren't temperatures colder, either max or min given the 850 mb temperatures?

[donsutherland1]

So why aren't temperatures colder, either max or min given the 850 mb temperatures?

The cold aloft isn't mixing down to the surface.  FWIW, the 0z NAM MOS shows the lowest temperature at 8° in NYC. The 0z GFS MOS has it at 12°.

[pazzo83]

Looks like they've dipped into the good stuff at the NWS offices in Chicago-land.  Pretty funny:

 

 

Monday

Windy and just unbearably cold. Partly sunny. Areas of blowing snow. Highs 8 to 12 below. Wind chills as low as 35 below to 45 below zero. West winds 15 to 30 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

 

 

 

And from their AFD:

 

Polar vortex and the Arctic air should retreat at a good clip
Tuesday into Wednesday as upper flow transitions to a much more
zonal nature. Granted the moderation will be from eye-popping omg
type cold to a more typical slightly below average temperatures.

[pazzo83]

The warmth ahead of the arctic onslaught tonight looks to have been significantly under-forecast:  

 

KNYC:

GFS MOS 6z (1am): 42

Actual: 52

 

KPHL:

MOS: 42

Actual: 54