Record Breaking Cold January 3-4 & 7-8 Discussion & Observations

[green tube]

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/01/04/forecast-improves-for-green-bay-a-little/

 

i often wonder how accurate the temps reported at football games are.  are they using one of those pizza-size giant red-arrow thermometers? or from the local airport 5 miles away?... or wherever? 

 

too bad the packers game isnt a night game.  the forecast low tomorrow night in green bay is -20 to -25.   that's just plain funny.

[NorthShoreWx]

11 degrees here shortly before 2AM.  With dew point about the same, seems like a prescription for nasty black ice on the roads.

[RutgersWx92]

Temperatures are significantly colder than expected here, only 3.6F which is way lower than my NWS forecasted low of 15.  Also KSMQ was at 3F at 1 am (and still is now) while the 0z NAM and GFS MOS had temps of 16 and 20 at that time, respectively.  Temps are going to have to be closely monitored I really don't see how we go above freezing by the expected time of noon which could mean more freezing rain than expected...

[green tube]

Temperatures are significantly colder than expected here, only 3.6F which is way lower than my NWS forecasted low of 15.  Also KSMQ was at 3F at 1 am (and still is now) while the 0z NAM and GFS MOS had temps of 16 and 20 at that time, respectively.  Temps are going to have to be closely monitored I really don't see how we go above freezing by the expected time of noon which could mean more freezing rain than expected...

 

meanwhile... it's 29F in central park and the forecast low is 20F.  where i am it's 9F with a forecast low of 18F

[odwalla]

It's crazy how warm the city stays. The technical 'subtropical' climate designation is much more fitting as of late; I wonder how rapidly it is advancing inland?

[Guest Pamela]

Heat is a bigger concern I agree. Heat waves cause more problems than cold shots. And real heatwaves, not temps of 90 or 91.

 

This assertion is incorrect if the word concern refers to fatalities.  Every year, bitter cold kills far more people in America than extreme heat.

[Guest Pamela]

Currently 7.2 F at Upton / OKX...was as cold as 6.2 F there during the last hour.

[Guest Pamela]

Continuation of bizarre temperature antics out at KFOK / Westhampton...I mentioned that the weirdness out there would put Lead, South Dakota (a town in the Black Hills also know for crazy ups and downs in temperature, heavily abetted by the extreme continental climate in place there, altitude, and the ever present Chinook wind) to shame.  KFOK was down to 18 F at 7:00 PM tonight with light winds....then, the wind started to pick up out of the southwest off the water and within one hour they were up into the mid 30's.  As time progressed, the atmosphere settled down, winds went light & variable and now KFOK (or at least per the 4:00 AM obs.) was back down to 3 F. 

[Nickysixes]

That is woefully inaccurate...

This assertion is incorrect if the word concern refers to fatalities.  Every year, bitter cold kills far more people in America than extreme heat.

[donsutherland1]

This assertion is incorrect if the word concern refers to fatalities.  Every year, bitter cold kills far more people in America than extreme heat.

NWS says that heat is the leading weather-related cause of fatalities.

 

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lmk/?n=noaaexcessiveheat

[bluewave]

Also some of the greatest 850- SST temperature differences that we have seen here in a while will

offer the potential for sound effect snows out on Eastern Long Island with the strong westerly

winds over the warm waters.

 

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/view/prodsByState.php?state=NY&prodtype=discussion#AFDOKX

 

THE STRONG WNW WINDS AND COLD AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS FROM MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO CREATE CONDITIONS RIPE FOR SOUND
EFFECT SNOW. AS TIME GOES ON CONFIDENCE INCREASES - SO HAVE
INCREASED POPS OVER THE TWIN FORKS TO CHANCE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON
- AS SUGGESTED BY GFS AND ECMWF. GIVEN DEGREE OF SEPARATION BETWEEN
850 TEMPERATURE AND WATER TEMPERATURE (25-30C) WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED THAT COULD END UP WITH SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND - POSSIBLY WITH SOME IMPRESSIVE
SNOW BURSTS. ONCE AGAIN STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY - SO DO NOT WANT TO
GO TOO FAR IN ANY DIRECTION ON THIS QUITE YET.

[JERSEYSNOWROB]

Spotty freezing drizzle, temp 25, here in Marlboro, NJ Monmouth County

[bluewave]

Record lows for Tuesday the 7th.

 

NYC...6.....1896

LGA...11...1968

JFK.....8....1968

EWR...10..1996

ISP.....13..1988

[EasternLI]

Also some of the greatest 850- SST temperature differences that we have seen here in a while will

offer the potential for sound effect snows out on Eastern Long Island with the strong westerly

winds over the warm waters.

 

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/view/prodsByState.php?state=NY&prodtype=discussion#AFDOKX

 

THE STRONG WNW WINDS AND COLD AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS FROM MONDAY

NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO CREATE CONDITIONS RIPE FOR SOUND

EFFECT SNOW. AS TIME GOES ON CONFIDENCE INCREASES - SO HAVE

INCREASED POPS OVER THE TWIN FORKS TO CHANCE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON

- AS SUGGESTED BY GFS AND ECMWF. GIVEN DEGREE OF SEPARATION BETWEEN

850 TEMPERATURE AND WATER TEMPERATURE (25-30C) WOULD NOT BE

SURPRISED THAT COULD END UP WITH SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS

EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND - POSSIBLY WITH SOME IMPRESSIVE

SNOW BURSTS. ONCE AGAIN STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY - SO DO NOT WANT TO

GO TOO FAR IN ANY DIRECTION ON THIS QUITE YET.

 

This is so rare to happen, I would be extremely impressed to say the least.

[donsutherland1]

Record Low Maximum Temperatures for Select Cities for January 7:

 

Atlantic City: 22°. 1988

Bridgeport: 18°, 1988

Islip: 19°, 1988

New Haven: 23°, 1973

New York City:

...JFK: 21°, 1988

...LGA: 20°, 1942

...NYC: 17°, 1878

Newark: 19°, 1996

Westhampton: 25°, 2004

White Plains: 17°, 1996

[NEG NAO]

Record Low Maximum Temperatures for Select Cities for January 7:

 

Atlantic City: 22°. 1988

Bridgeport: 18°, 1988

Islip: 19°, 1988

New Haven: 23°, 1973

New York City:

...JFK: 21°, 1988

...LGA: 20°, 1942

...NYC: 17°, 1878

Newark: 19°, 1996

Westhampton: 25°, 2004

White Plains: 17°, 1996

I think each one of these will be broken by several degrees IF the arctic air makes it in early enough Monday - highs for the day  should be reached at midnight Tuesday Morning  - then plunging temps

[uncle W]

NYC's record max/min's for 1/7.
Lowest max.  Lowest min.
17 in 1878.......6 in 1896.....
19 in 1912.......7 in 1884.....
19 in 1942.......8 in 1912.....
21 in 1884.....10 in 1942.....
21 in 1973.....10 in 1968.....
22 in 1996.....11 in 1878.....

[Guest Pamela]

That is woefully inaccurate...

 

 

• U.S. death rates from extreme cold weather 1979-2006 were 50.1% of all extreme weather event deaths;
• U.S. death rates from extreme hot weather 1979-2006 were 27.1% of all extreme weather event deaths;
• U.S. extreme cold weather death rates averaged 2.7% between 1979-2006 for all causes of death;
• U.S. extreme hot weather death rates averaged 1.5% between 1979-2006 for all causes of death
• Four times more people die from excessive cold weather than die from excessive hot weather according to National Center for Health Statistics Compressed Mortality Database 2005.

[RU848789]

NWS says that heat is the leading weather-related cause of fatalities.

 

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lmk/?n=noaaexcessiveheat

True.  The attached graphic, below, shows this quite clearly, comparing all types of weather related fatalities in the US for 2012, the last 10 year average and the last 30 year average. On a 10 year average, 118 people die each year from heat, while only 27 die each year from the cold.  Interesting, though, that these data for heat related deaths over the 2003-2012 period are significantly less than the 10 year period from 1994-2003 in the link you provided (238 deaths per year).  I wonder if that's significant or if there was one huge heat wave with an anomolously large death toll in the earlier period which skewed the average. 

 

[Guest Pamela]

NWS says that heat is the leading weather-related cause of fatalities.

 

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lmk/?n=noaaexcessiveheat

 

From the article you cite:

 

 NOAA National Weather Service statistical data shows that heat causes more fatalities per year than floods, lightning, tornadoes, and hurricanes combined. Based on the 10-year average from 1994 to 2003, excessive heat claimed 237 lives each year. By contrast, floods killed 84; tornadoes, 58; lightning, 63; and hurricanes, 18.

 

That is fine and I do not contest it.  But the glaring omission of how many people are killed by cold weather every year is the salient missing element in the commentary.

[Guest Pamela]

The idea that only 27 Americans die per year (or on average in that 10 year sample) from excessive cold is a flat out falsehood.

[bluewave]

The idea that only 27 Americans die per year (or in that 10 year sample) from excessive cold is a flat out falsehood.

 

Can we please keep this thread on topic and move all this OT to another thread.

[Dan76]

SES Sound effect SN

 

 AS SUGGESTED BY GFS AND ECMWF. GIVEN DEGREE OF SEPARATION BETWEEN

850 TEMPERATURE AND WATER TEMPERATURE (25-30C) WOULD NOT BE

SURPRISED THAT COULD END UP WITH SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS

EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND - POSSIBLY WITH SOME IMPRESSIVE

SNOW BURSTS. ONCE AGAIN STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY - SO DO NOT WANT TO

GO TOO FAR IN ANY DIRECTION ON THIS QUITE YET.

 

[donsutherland1]

True.  The attached graphic, below, shows this quite clearly, comparing all types of weather related fatalities in the US for 2012, the last 10 year average and the last 30 year average. On a 10 year average, 118 people die each year from heat, while only 27 die each year from the cold.  Interesting, though, that these data for heat related deaths over the 2003-2012 period are significantly less than the 10 year period from 1994-2003 in the link you provided (238 deaths per year).  I wonder if that's significant or if there was one huge heat wave with an anomolously large death toll in the earlier period which skewed the average. 

 

I believe the great 1995 heat wave in Chicago, which claimed approximately 750 lives, might have skewed the numbers.

[RU848789]

The idea that only 27 Americans die per year (or on average in that 10 year sample) from excessive cold is a flat out falsehood.

Agree - I dug a little more, as I was a bit skeptical about the low numbers of winter-related deaths.  The data in the link below, seems more realistic, as it's from the CDC and lists about 600 deaths per year directly due to cold (hypothermia) and 700 deaths per year due to heat exposure during the 1998-2003 period.  That source also lists 140 deaths per year from flooding, 56 deaths per year from tornadoes, and 55 per year from lightning, and 47 per year from hurricanes; clearly most of these deaths are much more related to warm weather than cold weather. 

What does not appear to be included are secondary impacts from weather, especially auto accidents.  From 1995-2008 the NHTSA reported that 7130 people were killed per year in all auto accidents, of which 31% (2170 per year) were due to snow, ice, and slush, while 54% were due to rain/fog.  So, clearly, these numbers reflect much greater death rates due to the secondary effects of winter weather vs. the rest of the year.  Always fun trying to "prove" points with selected statistics...

http://listosaur.com/miscellaneous/top-5-weather-related-causes-of-death-in-the-u.s..html

http://www.ops.fhwa.dot.gov/weather/q1_roadimpact.htm

[Wannabehippie]

Officially it is 31 in Astoria, but what is falling from the sky seems to be staying as liquid when it hits the ground (as long as that ground is not snow covered).  now that could be that because the street and sidewalks were salted like crazy, but I think the temp being reported in Astoria might be off

[NorthShoreWx]

Agree - I dug a little more, as I was a bit skeptical about the low numbers of winter-related deaths.  The data in the link below, seems more realistic, as it's from the CDC and lists about 600 deaths per year directly due to cold (hypothermia) and 700 deaths per year due to heat exposure during the 1998-2003 period.  That source also lists 140 deaths per year from flooding, 56 deaths per year from tornadoes, and 55 per year from lightning, and 47 per year from hurricanes; clearly most of these deaths are much more related to warm weather than cold weather. 

What does not appear to be included are secondary impacts from weather, especially auto accidents.  From 1995-2008 the NHTSA reported that 7130 people were killed per year in all auto accidents, of which 31% (2170 per year) were due to snow, ice, and slush, while 54% were due to rain/fog.  So, clearly, these numbers reflect much greater death rates due to the secondary effects of winter weather vs. the rest of the year.  Always fun trying to "prove" points with selected statistics...

http://listosaur.com/miscellaneous/top-5-weather-related-causes-of-death-in-the-u.s..html

http://www.ops.fhwa.dot.gov/weather/q1_roadimpact.htm

 

I believe that most hypothermia cases actually occur at temperatures between 40 and 50, as opposed to during extreme cold.  I am not sure how that stat shakes out in cases involving fatalities.

[NorthShoreWx]

Officially it is 31 in Astoria, but what is falling from the sky seems to be staying as liquid when it hits the ground (as long as that ground is not snow covered).  now that could be that because the street and sidewalks were salted like crazy, but I think the temp being reported in Astoria might be off

 

Could be multiple reasons, including sensor accuracy, salt treatment, and solar insolation.

[Chaser25973]

This is so rare to happen, I would be extremely impressed to say the least.

 

Any chance for snowspouts with this if it verifies?

[NorthShoreWx]

Any chance for snowspouts with this if it verifies?

 

What is a snowspout?