Record Breaking Cold January 3-4 & 7-8 Discussion & Observations

[bluewave]

A persistent LI Sound streamer may set up across Eastern Long Island 

from Monday night into Tuesday with strong CAA on westerly winds.

Good Delta T with the SST at +5C and 850's around -24C. Those 850's

are about a -4 SD event for this area.

 

 

[Sundog]

You are right...since Feb 16, 1943...a span of almost 71 years...Central Park went below zero a whopping 8 separate times...about once every 9 years, on average...with an absolute minimum of an extraordinary -2F.

All the below 0 degree days at Central Park 1943 to Present

1994 Jan 19th/-2

1985 Jan 21st/-2

1980 Dec 25th/-1

1977 Jan 17th/-2

1976 Jan 23rd/-1

1968 Jan 9th/-1

1963 Feb 8th/-2

1961 Feb 2nd/-2

1943 Feb 15th/-8

Maybe I should have said they got more intense cold shots more often. Not necessarily below zero, even though that did happen more often. The temperature records shows temperatures in every season rising. Average coldest low per decade is on the rise. Unclew has some nice stats he posted once regarding this topic.

[doncat]

Gonna radiate for a little while this evening... back down to 19 here.

[bluewave]

Maybe I should have said they got more intense cold shots more often. Not necessarily below zero, even though that did happen more often. The temperature records shows temperatures in every season rising. Average coldest low per decade is on the rise. Unclew has some nice stats he posted once regarding this topic.

 

We are in a a great era when we have been able to trade some winter cold for more 12" snowstorms in NYC.

 

100 years  of 12" snowstorms  in NYC over 20 year intervals.

 

1994-2013........10

1974-1993........4

1953-1972........7

1933-1952........4

1913-1932........5

 

[Guest Pamela]

We are in a a great era when we have been able to trade some winter cold for more 12" snowstorms in NYC.

 

100 years  of 12" snowstorms  in NYC over 20 year intervals.

 

1994-2013........10

1974-1993........4

1953-1972........7

1933-1952........4

1913-1932........5

 

Screen shot 2014-01-04 at 5.43.14 PM.png

The temperature graph you present which appears to reflect an uptick in average winter temperatures in NYC over the course of time can be attributed to ever increasing urbanization & an expanding heat island, which greatly impacts the numbers many long term climate stations report, a general increase in sunspot activity since the Little Ice Age ended shortly before 1900, and, in fairness, some of it may be linked to the chemicals & pollution man has carelessly released into the atmosphere.  However, I believe there is clearly insufficient foundation to conclude that it is *all* due to the last reason I cited. 

 

There is a burgeoning consensus that "Global Warming" peaked in the year 1998 and has either been in neutral or slowly receding over the past 15 years.  My belief is that as sunspot activity continues to wane, global temperatures will continue to head downwards.  Though Co2 emissions may in fact play a minor role in warming the planet, the solar influence far exceeds that factor or any other that has been previously considered. 

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

The temperature graph you present which appears to reflect an uptick in average winter temperatures in NYC over the course of time can be attributed to ever increasing urbanization & an expanding heat island, which greatly impacts the numbers many long term climate stations report, a general increase in sunspot activity since the Little Ice Age ended shortly before 1900, and, in fairness, some of it may be linked to the chemicals & pollution man has carelessly released into the atmosphere.  However, I believe there is clearly insufficient foundation to conclude that it is *all* due to the last reason I cited. 

 

There is a burgeoning consensus that "Global Warming" peaked in the year 1998 and has either been in neutral or slowly receding over the past 15 years.  My belief is that as sunspot activity continues to wane, global temperatures will continue to head downwards.  Though Co2 emissions may in fact play a minor role in warming the planet, the solar influence far exceeds that factor or any other that has been previously considered. 

 

I wish there was a like button because I'd press it for this post.

[Guest Pamela]

I wish there was a like button because I'd press it for this post.

 

Thnxs...

[JBG]

The temperature graph you present which appears to reflect an uptick in average winter temperatures in NYC over the course of time can be attributed to ever increasing urbanization & an expanding heat island, which greatly impacts the numbers many long term climate stations report, a general increase in sunspot activity since the Little Ice Age ended shortly before 1900, and, in fairness, some of it may be linked to the chemicals & pollution man has carelessly released into the atmosphere.  However, I believe there is clearly insufficient foundation to conclude that it is *all* due to the last reason I cited. 

 

There is a burgeoning consensus that "Global Warming" peaked in the year 1998 and has either been in neutral or slowly receding over the past 15 years.  My belief is that as sunspot activity continues to wane, global temperatures will continue to head downwards.  Though Co2 emissions may in fact play a minor role in warming the planet, the solar influence far exceeds that factor or any other that has been previously considered.

I wish there was a like button because I'd press it for this post.

Second that. I would like to add long-term PDO phases, unless that's a feedback from sunset.

[ace0927]

We are in a a great era when we have been able to trade some winter cold for more 12" snowstorms in NYC.

 

100 years  of 12" snowstorms  in NYC over 20 year intervals.

 

1994-2013........10

1974-1993........4

1953-1972........7

1933-1952........4

1913-1932........5

 

Screen shot 2014-01-04 at 5.43.14 PM.png

 

and to put 74-93 in perspective two of the four occurred in one year....that is my childhood.

[WE GOT HIM]

I wish there was a like button because I'd press it for this post.

Same here

[Sundog]

Hey while you guys are high-fiving each other, maybe you can try and blame this on UHI as well?

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/05/120507164334.htm

I hear the Adirondacks are the new midtown Manhattan.

[WE GOT HIM]

Its annoying when people say the UHI has not expanded over the last 25 years...We went through 2 housing booms in that time period and seem to be entering a 3rd now. New York even more so had a commercial and a private boom... There was massive development in NJ, LI, eastern PA, and the esp the Hudson valley. While there may not have been as much in the 5 boroughs, there was still a good amount.

I live in Queens and in the 90s there were still a lot of vacant lots around, now, none at all. My block like many others used to have 15+ massive oak trees now there are only 4 on the street, the rest were covered by cement. In the last 10 years back yard trees on my block went from 10 to 2. I also live near a cemetery that had many many trees, about 5 years ago they cut 75% of them to put more tombstones.

 

- If you want to see current development now go to the Brooklyn and Queens and NJ water front (most notably Williamsburg), there is about 50+ highrises that weren't there just 10 years ago.

- Manhattan is also growing even more now, There are 10+ 800+ tall buildings being built or recently finished in midtown alone right now

- http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2013/12/12/new-york-high-rise-boom/4005289/

[Sundog]

Its annoying when people say the UHI has not expanded over the last 25 years...We went through 2 housing booms in that time period and seem to be entering a 3rd now. There was massive development in NJ, LI, eastern PA, and the esp the Hudson valley. While there may not have been as much in the 5 boroughs, there was still a good amount.

I live in Queens and in the 90s there were still a lot of vacant lots around, none at all now. My block like many others used to have 15+ massive oak trees now there are only 4 on the street, the rest were covered by cement. In the last 10 years back yard trees on my block went from 10 to 2. I also live near a cemetery that had many many trees, about 5 years ago they cut 75% of them to put more tombstones.

- If you want to see current development now go to the Brooklyn and Queens and NJ water front (most notably Williamsburg), there is about 50+ highrises that weren't there just 10 years ago.

- Manhattan is also growing even more now, There are 10+ 800+ tall buildings being built or recently finished in midtown alone right now

- http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2013/12/12/new-york-high-rise-boom/4005289/

Read the article I posted and try to refute it. Because if you "liked" his post you're blaming long term temperature rise in NYC on UHI, even though the 5 boroughs were fully built out by the mid 1960s.

You know there are aerial photographs available of the city from many time periods, right? I'm not just pulling this stuff out of my butt. You didn't replace open fields in Brooklyn with highrises, you replaced one structure with another structure. The UHI was already there.

[Sundog]

So low rise structures radiate well but high rise structures dont? Who cares if they got taller, the land is no longer grass or trees. It hasn't been in Brooklyn for 100 years or more.

[WE GOT HIM]

So low rise structures radiate well but high rise structures dont? Who cares if they got taller, the land is no longer grass or trees. It hasn't been in Brooklyn for 100 years or more.

The taller the building, the higher the mass, and the less it will radiate.

Also the taller buildings act like dams. Someone posted an article in the summer about how NYC's tall buildings along with the UHI even mess with local precip. That is why thunderstorms always seem to go around nyc.

- I have seen the photos but they look like something a prior to a U2 photo

 

I did read the article, overall the earth might be warming, I just think mans contribution to it is negligible at best. I also think most people look at such a small sample size. People always comment on the 150 years of common weather data, but that isn't even an ecological blink of an eye.

[NorthShoreWx]

Read the article I posted and try to refute it. Because if you "liked" his post you're blaming long term temperature rise in NYC on UHI, even though the 5 boroughs were fully built out by the mid 1960s.

 

 

This is very incorrect.  You have to include all of the surface area of those buildings, not just the footprint.   The city has been growing up, not out.

[Sundog]

This is very incorrect. You have to include all of the surface area of those buildings, not just the footprint. The city has been growing up, not out.

The only high rises that have gone up are in pockets along the east river. The rest of Brooklyn and Queens has largely the same housing stock as it did 40 years ago, as does the Bronx. Manhattan has seen more tall structures obviously, but only in midtown or downtown. The rest of the island still has the same historical neighborboods. Considering the massive size of the city, I hardly think you can blame the steady rise in temperature over the last 50 years on the addition of highrises in certain spots.

Do you think this is the reason the city is warming? And does my point still not stand that remote pristine places have also seen warming over the same period? Bottom line it's not increased UHI making temps going up, period.

Everyone is conveniently ignoring my link.

[NorthShoreWx]

So low rise structures radiate well but high rise structures dont? Who cares if they got taller, the land is no longer grass or trees. It hasn't been in Brooklyn for 100 years or more.

 

Think of it this way, A 100 story building is a much thicker blanket than a 1 story building.  Also, to the extent that they are not 100% energy efficient, the taller buildings are losing more heat into the environment. 

 

I wonder if the temperature change at 1000 feet above Manhattan has been as drastic as at street level?

[pazzo83]

In terms of palms, there's actually a home in New Rochelle, NY (a suburb of NYC) that has fairly large outdoor palm trees that are more than a decade old.

 

I believe the climate zone that supports palms extends to the Jersey Shore and perhaps extreme SE NY.

[BxEngine]

Can someone direct me to the thread about our temps this coming week?

[Sundog]

Think of it this way, A 100 story building is a much thicker blanket than a 1 story building. Also, to the extent that they are not 100% energy efficient, the taller buildings are losing more heat into the environment.

I wonder if the temperature change at 1000 feet above Manhattan has been as drastic as at street level?

I'm not sure what your point is. We don't record temperature at 1000 feet. But what we do know is that thicknesses worldwide have risen over the last several decades, which would mean temperatures are rising at more places besides the surface.

[pazzo83]

As there has been some discussion as to whether the difficulty of achieving a subzero reading in Central Park has increased, the following are the standardized anomalies related to a -1°F reading in January for a number of climatic baselines:

 

 

That a stunning jump in std deviation between 81-10 and what I'm assuming is 84-13 (last 30 years).

[Sundog]

Can someone direct me to the thread about our temps this coming week?

Say man but I can't let nonsense just slip by without confronting it.

[WE GOT HIM]

Can someone direct me to the thread about our temps this coming week?

lol yea sorry about that we had a good conversation going on in here.

 

Check out what is coming our way on the 60 hour 4k

[pazzo83]

Maybe I should have said they got more intense cold shots more often. Not necessarily below zero, even though that did happen more often. The temperature records shows temperatures in every season rising. Average coldest low per decade is on the rise. Unclew has some nice stats he posted once regarding this topic.

 

We recently set a record high min for DJF and calendar winter.  Let's see when we do that again for record low max or record low min.

[pazzo83]

lol yea sorry about that we had a good conversation going in here.

 

Check out what is coming our way on the 60 hour 4k

 

The cold in the midwest is absolutely epic.  Mid -10s in Chicago and Indy on Monday for highs.  Holy. Crap.  Chicago's all time record low is -27F I believe, Don has it on the main weather page.

[NorthShoreWx]

The only high rises that have gone up are in pockets along the east river. The rest of Brooklyn and Queens has largely the same housing stock as it did 40 years ago, as does the Bronx. Manhattan has seen more tall structures obviously, but only in midtown or downtown. The rest of the island still has the same historical neighborboods. Considering the massive size of the city, I hardly think you can blame the steady rise in temperature over the last 50 years on the addition of highrises in certain spots.

Do you think this is the reason the city is warming? And does my point still not stand that remote pristine places have also seen warming over the same period? Bottom line it's not increased UHI making temps going up, period.

Everyone is conveniently ignoring my link.

 

I don't believe that the growth upward has been insignificant.  If it helps, I don't think that is 100% of the cause, but it is significant.  As I said earlier, I think there has also been a certain amount of plain old dumb luck that has kept the city from getting to 0 for 20 years.

 

If you look at a post earlier in this thread with charts illustrating the change in winds and temperature over ~85 meters on the BNL tower this morning you can get an idea of how shallow is the layer that decouples from the prevailing winds.  The tall buildings direct that flow downward mixing out any surface cooling (i.e., making it very hard to radiate).  That is why Queens still radiates better than Manhattan despite being just as developed at the surface.

[Stormlover74]

We recently set a record high min for DJF and calendar winter. Let's see when we do that again for record low max or record low min.

Ewr JFK and LGA just did yesterday. Granted the previous record wasn't all the impressive

[pazzo83]

Ewr JFK and LGA just did yesterday. Granted the previous record wasn't all the impressive

 I meant for DJF or calendar winter.

[WE GOT HIM]

The cold in the midwest is absolutely epic.  Mid -10s in Chicago and Indy on Monday for highs.  Holy. Crap.  Chicago's all time record low is -27F I believe, Don has it on the main weather page.

That Packers game is going to be crazy