Record Breaking Cold January 3-4 & 7-8 Discussion & Observations

[stormwarn]

A low of +4.6F here in Wood Ridge, NJ. Dew points were -2F around midnight, but rose slowly to +2F towards pre dawn.

[shadowsintherain]

I mentioned this in another post. I'm an amateur observer mostly. I am wondering about the possibility of a flash freeze with this next cold shot after the rain we will get here in NYC. What's the deal?

[Sundog]

I don't necessarily agree with this. I think the build up went exponential in the 90s. At least here in north Jersey.

Empty lots are now home to huge apartment buildings.

Small parts of North Jersey seeing exurb growth is not really going to affect UHI of the city. Even within the 5 boroughs I can be up to 10 degrees colder than LGA and I'm in Queens!

What I'm saying is that the city, meaning all of the 5 boroughs, was fully built out by the mid 1960s. Almost all of Nassau looks like the same since the 1970s. Even most developments in Suffolk peaked in the early 80s. Jersey City and all those places that border the city to the west were all there from a long time ago.

The reason why it doesn't get very cold as often is not because of some cookie cutter Mcmansions surrounded by forest in North Jersey. We just don't get as many or as powerful Arctic shots anymore.

The temperature records of even rural locations that haven't changed in a loooong time show this.

[SnoSki14]

Hit 2F here and it was the coldest in several years but I think record cold is overrated over here when it comes to impact value. Record cold is far more tolerable than record heat and much less damaging. The worst severe cold could do around here is decrease car battery efficiency at least temporarily and perhaps cause some uninsulated pipes to freeze/burst. Hypothermia and frostbite are very easy to prevent (just dress warm) and both don't become a tremendous concern unless windchills get below -25/30. 

 

From a historical perspective it's cool to see such cold weather I guess, but it's far from our main concern. Cold is a midwest, northern plains problem, ours will continue to be snowstorms, tropical systems, flooding, and heat. 

[Sundog]

Heat is a bigger concern I agree. Heat waves cause more problems than cold shots. And real heatwaves, not temps of 90 or 91.

[Stormlover74]

I mentioned this in another post. I'm an amateur observer mostly. I am wondering about the possibility of a flash freeze with this next cold shot after the rain we will get here in NYC. What's the deal?

Right now the rainfall doesn't look all that impressive. It will get cold in a hurry on Monday afternoon but not sure about the risks of a "flash freeze"

[JERSEYSNOWROB]

Snow angels on the beach in Wildwood! (Pic courtesy of ww365)

[Stormlover74]

That was 1-27-94 on NNE winds straight down from New England that got NYC to 0. Notice the perfect positioning

of the Arctic high to our north. It was one of the best shallow Arctic shots in recent decades considering how

mild the 850's were when NYC hit zero. We also had a snow the day before. Most people looking at the map

below wouldn't think that NYC could get to zero on it.

012712.png

Yeah I looked it up. It was impressive too in that after hitting zero temps climbed to 31 that night and 55 with rain the very next day so this temperature swing isn't that rare when we have extreme cold.

I think in some ways the stretch in 2003 of 12-14 straight days of below freezing weather is more difficult to achieve and more impressive than 1 or 2 very cold nights.

[donsutherland1]

I am seeing a low of 3 at JFK -1 at farming dale and -0 at islip digustingly warm at cpk though at 8. It's going to difficult for cpk to ever go below zero again without major climate change. Cpk is probably more like zone 8 and wouldn't surprise me if some warmer weather plants can now live there hardy palms being a given

In terms of palms, there's actually a home in New Rochelle, NY (a suburb of NYC) that has fairly large outdoor palm trees that are more than a decade old.

[SnowGoose69]

We would need another 85-94 extreme CAA event to get NYC below zero again.

Even the last major Hudson Valley drain on northerly flow only got NYC down to +1in 04. 

The +AMO/-PDO era is also making it more difficult for us to do it now since the last big gap below

zero readings at the Park was during 44-60. But even from 61-94, below zero days were still

rare even under optimal conditions.

 

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/climate/records/below0degdays.html

 

012112.png

 

011912.png

 

The event Monday is fairly similar to the 1985 event except for the fact the coldest 850s do not arrive until around 12-15Z Tuesday AM which may be too late...I could see another 0 or 1 for sure at NYC but not a -1 or -2.

[bluewave]

I think if the CAA was about 6-9 hours faster on Tuesday, then NYC would have had a good shot at

getting close to zero. NYC may struggle to get much above 10 degrees with afternoon 850's

around -25C should they verify that cold. The highs for the day should be in the teens right

after midnight.

 

NYC 78 01/07 18Z 10 -6 272 20 0.00 0.00 498 512 -25.7 -32.4 1018.2 3 044FEW056 CLR CLR 10 7 20.0

[uncle W]

the cold wave of February 8th 1963 was a brief as it gets...temps the day before were in the mid 40's...the temp dropped to 25 by midnight and -2 around 9am on 2/8/63...The day featured temps in the single digits but warmed to over ten degrees by midnight and into the 30's the day after...

[bluewave]

The event Monday is fairly similar to the 1985 event except for the fact the coldest 850s do not arrive until around 12-15Z Tuesday AM which may be too late...I could see another 0 or 1 for sure at NYC but not a -1 or -2.

 

The 85 event had had colder lower level air as the whole PV dropped down into the east with lower

thickness values. But I agree that 0 would be in reach if the CAA was 6-9 hours faster peaking at -25c

around 9-12z instead of 15-z18z.

[SnoSki14]

Looks like we'll only get into the upper single digits with the next cold shot, a far cry from the below zero temperatures the models showed several days before. I guess it's because of the timing of the CAA and 850s temperatures rather than the air mass not being as cold as originally modeled. 

[MJO812]

Snow angels on the beach in Wildwood! (Pic courtesy of ww365)

Love Wildwood. Always there in the summer.Beautiful place.

[nzucker]

Small parts of North Jersey seeing exurb growth is not really going to affect UHI of the city. Even within the 5 boroughs I can be up to 10 degrees colder than LGA and I'm in Queens!

What I'm saying is that the city, meaning all of the 5 boroughs, was fully built out by the mid 1960s. Almost all of Nassau looks like the same since the 1970s. Even most developments in Suffolk peaked in the early 80s. Jersey City and all those places that border the city to the west were all there from a long time ago.

The reason why it doesn't get very cold as often is not because of some cookie cutter Mcmansions surrounded by forest in North Jersey. We just don't get as many or as powerful Arctic shots anymore.

The temperature records of even rural locations that haven't changed in a loooong time show this.

But we had -24C 850s in January 2009 and NYC only got to 6F. Those 850s with less UHI would produce lows below 0F and did in the past... So there must be some change in the heat island.

[nzucker]

The 85 event had had colder lower level air as the whole PV dropped down into the east with lower

thickness values. But I agree that 0 would be in reach if the CAA was 6-9 hours faster peaking at -25c

around 9-12z instead of 18z.

I still think it's within reach... 850s are -25C to -26C with snow cover and WNW winds.

[NorthShoreWx]

You are correct - ACY is the AC International Airport, which is 10 miles northwest of Atlantic City.  As an aside, it's a fabulous airport to fly out of, as it's so small and friendly. We recently had a flight from there to Orlando and got a late start and didn't get to the airport until 40 minutes before the flight.  Was easy to park a few yards from the terminal for only $10/day and quickly walk in - only took us 10 minutes to get through security and we got to the gate as the flight was boarding. So much easier than flying from the NYC/NJ major airports. 

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlantic_City_International_Airport

 

Sounds like ISP.  Much less hassle than the city airports.

[Stormlover74]

More impressive would be afternoon temps of 10 or lower but the high would be at midnight so the split for the day will be -20 instead of -25 or more

[NorthShoreWx]

Following up on your comment on decoupling. Overnight/morning plots on the tower.  For those who might not know about the tower readings: http://wx1.bnl.gov/graph.html.

 

Awesome examples!  Thanks for posting this.

[JERSEYSNOWROB]

Love Wildwood. Always there in the summer.Beautiful place.

Dito!

[NorthShoreWx]

I am seeing a low of 3 at JFK -1 at farming dale and -0 at islip digustingly warm at cpk though at 8. It's going to difficult for cpk to ever go below zero again without major climate change. Cpk is probably more like zone 8 and wouldn't surprise me if some warmer weather plants can now live there hardy palms being a given

 

With not particularly cold 850s and weak WAA at that level, plus no surface wind to keep a supply of cold air into the UHI, I wasn't confident KNYC and KLGA would even get below 10 last night.  I don't think the outcome would have been that different on a similar setup 40 years ago.  The right conditions can still drill sub zero into Gotham.  I think there has been a fair amount of coincidence at play that its been so long since they were below zero...not solely due to UHI and GW.

[doncat]

Only a low of 6 in Staten Island , Damn UHI

Made it to 3 here.

[nzucker]

With not particularly cold 850s and weak WAA at that level, plus no surface wind to keep a supply of cold air into the UHI, I wasn't confident KNYC and KLGA would even get below 10 last night. I don't think the outcome would have been that different on a similar setup 40 years ago. The right conditions can still drill sub zero into Gotham. I think there has been a fair amount of coincidence at play that its been so long since they were below zero...not solely due to UHI and GW.

The most important thing is very cold 850s. Last night was around -16C, not nearly cold enough. You need to get below -20C for Central Park to have a shot at cracking zero.

[NorthShoreWx]

We just had a strong gust of wind that blew a lot of snow around.  It was a south wind, so found some snow to move that hadn't been touched by the north winds.  I usually only see that on mountaintops,.

[donsutherland1]

As there has been some discussion as to whether the difficulty of achieving a subzero reading in Central Park has increased, the following are the standardized anomalies related to a -1°F reading in January for a number of climatic baselines:

 

[JBG]

The most important thing is very cold 850s. Last night was around -16C, not nearly cold enough. You need to get below -20C for Central Park to have a shot at cracking zero.

Wunderground is showing +8 for Monday night in KHPN.  Doesn't sound like subzero to me.

[Guest Pamela]

They used to a lot more often even going back to the 80s, when the city and it's suburbs were already all built out.

 

You are right...since Feb 16, 1943...a span of almost 71 years...Central Park went below zero a whopping 8 separate times...about once every 9 years, on average...with an absolute minimum of an extraordinary -2F.

 

All the below 0 degree days at Central Park 1943 to Present        

1994    Jan 19th/-2                 

1985    Jan 21st/-2                         

1980    Dec 25th/-1                         

1977    Jan 17th/-2                         

1976    Jan 23rd/-1                         

1968    Jan  9th/-1                         

1963    Feb  8th/-2                         

1961    Feb  2nd/-2                         

 

1943    Feb 15th/-8 

    

               

                

 

[Guest Pamela]

Co2 increases WARM the Earth, it's not we think it warms the Earth, it's not our educated opinion is it warms the Earth, it's none of that. It's factual. It's as factual as if we pulled away from the sun, it would get cold. It's not we think it would get cold. It WILL get cold. So the analogy stands.

Remember though, I'm referring to the long term changes; there will always be up and down variations with a system that has so many variables affecting it.

 

This again, is not entirely a settled bit of science...some do believe that adding Co2 to the atmosphere contributes to warming...some argue that the amount generally added on a daily basis is not substantial enough to make any difference; while still others argue the so-called negative feedback theory...i.e. the addition of the Co2 does in fact play a role in warming the atmosphere...but this warming will eventually yield an increase in clouds & precipitation...the increase in cloud cover will ultimately reduce the amount of incoming solar radiation...and this will ultimately yield an overall cooling of the planet.  Moreover, as more precipitation falls in the form of snow...overall snow cover around the globe will be augmented.  Since snow is white and has a high albedo (exceptional reflective properties), the amount of absorbed solar radiation would diminish, also resulting in cooling.

[Sundog]

This again, is not entirely a settled bit of science...some do believe that adding Co2 to the atmosphere contributes to warming...some argue that the amount generally added on a daily basis is not substantial enough to make any difference; while still others argue the so-called negative feedback theory...i.e. the addition of the Co2 does in fact paly a role in warming the atmosphere...but this warming will eventually yield an increase in clouds & precipitation...the increase in cloud cover will ultimately reduce the amount of incoming solar radiation...and this will ultimately yield an overall cooling of the planet. Moreover, as more precipitation falls in the form of snow...overall snow cover around the globe will be augmented. Since snow is white and has a high albedo (exceptional reflective properties), the amount of absorbed solar radiation would diminish, also resulting in cooling.

Funny you mentioned the clouds. I just read an article that the prediction of cloud formation in a warming world was why there was such a range in future warming forecasts. It was found that a warming world actually reduces cloud cover and therefore the cooler forecasts in the range are wrong and the warmer forecasts are more realistic. That was probably the last thing I wanted to hear as a snow lover.