Stormlover74 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 So then 15-1 would be the max? ...with the ratio average being lower? Say 10-1? This is definitely the coldest storm we've had in a while. Snow with temps in the teens is not that common. Doesn't necessarily mean great ratios but should be better than 10:1 for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 the sref mean is wetter for whatever that's worth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Just out of curiosity which model shows max qpf for KJFK and how much? is .60 the max Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 MOS for BLM is SNW 8 basically the same for EWR NYC, just 1" less here. Those would be crazy ratios but doable with minimal wind upstairs at 700mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XtremeWx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 With the 18z NAM running someone should start an 18z model thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 some of the colder snowstorms had ratios of 15-20 to 1...The blizzard in January 1961 was 20-1...The blizzard in 1964 was 12/13 to 1...1967 was 12 to 1...January 1965 had 0.35" and 4.6" of snow...If we get 0.50" of precip. snow totals could be 6-10"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 How about further NW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 On 1/21/13, Upton had a 50:1 ratio. I think its wrong but it was posted on NWS Upton's facebook. There were high ratios in that clipper regardless. Got 2.7" from only about .13" of precip here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 On 1/21/13, Upton had a 50:1 ratio. I think its wrong but it was posted on NWS Upton's facebook. There were high ratios in that clipper regardless. Got 2.7" from only about .13" of precip here. That's about 20:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 No problem. Feel free to ask if anything doesn't make sense -- I'm not the clearest writer/explainer at times lol. I really appreciate the help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 This is definitely the coldest storm we've had in a while. Snow with temps in the teens is not that common. Doesn't necessarily mean great ratios but should be better than 10:1 for sure. January '04 is the closest I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 18z thread is up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I really appreciate the help. FWIW, I just read a bit about the snow ratio algorithm implement in BUFKIT (I believe - the powerpoint was a bit old) and the snow ratio is a weighted average of the snow ratios at different levels. For a given saturated layer with lift, the snow ratio is calculated based on temperature (forky's graph) and then the overall ratio is weighted by the lift for that layer. In this case, the GFS is predicting ratios in the 10:1-15:1 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeRain Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 On 1/21/13, Upton had a 50:1 ratio. I think its wrong but it was posted on NWS Upton's facebook. There were high ratios in that clipper regardless. Got 2.7" from only about .13" of precip here. I remember that. A poster here said there would be ratios up to 50:1 and was criticized for saying it. . . Then Upton reported it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 That's about 20:1 Yeah it is. .13" x 2=2.6" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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