IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 At this point, 4-8" of snowfall is good enough for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Nice 500 mb vort max . This is prob 4 - 8 inches of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 advisory level event with those totals - similar to the december storms in many areas it has been the pattern no reason it should change now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 i like the changes at H5 compared to 0z. another step in that direction and this will be bigger wait, Forky is being optimistic? On an island all by myself... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 At this point, 4-8" of snowfall is good enough for me. agreed never know there still could be a surprise and the totals increase - on the other hand they could also decrease Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I guess I'll take it, at least it'll be windy, powdery, and frigid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Theres more Neg tilt to this , the precip printout is only .4 - Temps are low teens . This will print out a half inch of liquid at 15 to 20 to 1 , this is a better 500 mb look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 With the exception of the city due to UHI, are 20:1 ratios possible or is 15:1 more likely? Edit: This was answered in PB GIF's post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 With the exception of the city due to UHI, are 20:1 ratios possible or is 15:1 more likely? Ratios aren't determined by surface temps. You want to see good lift at the layer of the atmosphere between -12 and -18C, that's where dendrites form and have the best ratios. If there isn't a lot of lift there, the ratios won't be as high. I've seen snow at temps below 15 and have it consist of needles, essentially sugar flakes with a straight 10-1 ratio because the temps were too cold where the flakes were forming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Ratios aren't determined by surface temps. You want to see good lift at the layer of the atmosphere between -12 and -18C, that's where dendrites form and have the best ratios. If there isn't a lot of lift there, the ratios won't be as high. I've seen snow at temps below 15 and have it consist of needles, essentially sugar flakes with a straight 10-1 ratio because the temps were too cold where the flakes were forming. At hr 66 its minus 10 at 850 surface is 18 At hour 72 its minus 15 the surface is 8 that's 15 to 1 min Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Forky - can you please post your ratios graph in here and explain to people what the "source region"means....20:1 ratios in NYC are incredibly rare Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 With the exception of the city due to UHI, are 20:1 ratios possible or is 15:1 more likely? Edit: This was answered in PB GIF's post you need to know the temps at about 700MB to get an idea of ratios....if they are between -12C and -21C you will get 15:1+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Ratios aren't determined by surface temps. You want to see good lift at the layer of the atmosphere between -12 and -18C, that's where dendrites form and have the best ratios. If there isn't a lot of lift there, the ratios won't be as high. I've seen snow at temps below 15 and have it consist of needles, essentially sugar flakes with a straight 10-1 ratio because the temps were too cold where the flakes were forming. Ah ok so it's possible that being too cold can work against us. Do we have any snow growth forecasts for the storm or is it too premature? Sorry for all these questions btw (not IMBY type at least). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I really would just expect normal ratios 10:1.. .. if we do get 15:1 good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I'm liking this. And there is still some time for improvements. So a bit more snow is still possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 .4 to .5 at the surface which looks underdone when comparing it to a really good 500 MB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 source layer means the layer where snowflakes are forming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 .4 to .5 at the surface which looks underdone when comparing it to a really good 500 MB. Should still be at least 5" of snow. Getting close to warning level Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 source layer means the layer where snowflakes are forming thanks. is there a specific height? I was once told many years ago it was in the 700MB range....true? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Based on the graph, and assuming a 700mb growth region, based on the skew-t's it looks like a 12:1 ratio. Correct me if I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 thanks. is there a specific height? I was once told many years ago it was in the 700MB range....true? It is where the lift is occurring, which very often maximizes around 700 hPa but that isn't always the case. I've been only vaguely paying attention to this storm (mostly to see if my flight can leave on Thursday night ) but I'll check BUFKIT to see where the maximal lift is forecast to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Based on the graph, and assuming a 700mb growth region, based on the skew-t's it looks like a 12:1 ratio. Correct me if I'm wrong. can you post an image of the skw-t at hrs for any nyc location Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 It is where the lift is occurring, which very often maximizes around 700 hPa but that isn't always the case. I've been only vaguely paying attention to this storm (mostly to see if my flight can leave on Thursday night ) but I'll check BUFKIT to see where the maximal lift is forecast to be. much appreciated Loco Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 can you post an image of the skw-t at hrs for any nyc location I used ISP skew t for my 12:1 ratio. But here is NYC Hr 66 NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Based on the graph, and assuming a 700mb growth region, based on the skew-t's it looks like a 12:1 ratio. Correct me if I'm wrong. based on this for JFK at 66hr (GFS)....it would be closer to 15:1, assuming 700mb is the layer with max growth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 based on this for JFK at 66hr (GFS)....it would be closer to 15:1, assuming 700mb is the layer with max growth I think if we .5 at 15 to 1 you gotta take it . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Any update on the. January 7th storm? Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Any update on the. January 7th storm? Rossi Cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 The 12z GFSx has very decent snow totals for NYC http://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/mos/getmex.pl?sta=KACY&sta=KEWR&sta=KNYC&sta=KJFK&sta=KLGA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I think if we .5 at 15 to 1 you gotta take it . beggars can never be choosers.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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