Ralph Wiggum Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 That has a feb 83 look to it in regards to the dual low structure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 sv snow maps are 4-8 from ttn northeast….more on long island 8+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 .5 QPF with 10:1 ratios is 5 inches, with temps in teens its gonna be 15:1, 6-8 inches looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 997 low Just East of AC ,thats about as good as you can ask for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 12z GFS looks much better than past runs. It seems strange though because it develops 2 lows off the coast. 6-10 inches for the NYC area on this run and more towards SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 does the two lows make sense? or do you think future runs will start concentrating on one low pressure? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 If we can that vort to amplify a bit more deeper & closer to the coast, we'd be in business. That's achievable 60-72 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 31, 2013 Author Share Posted December 31, 2013 does the two lows make sense? or do you think future runs will start concentrating on one low pressure? I dont know that dual low looks suspect. How often do we actually see that to begin with? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 does the two lows make sense? or do you think future runs will start concentrating on one low pressure? I was thinking the same thing. It looks real suspect. Not saying convective feedback but how often does that double low solution actually come to fruition? Still looks improved which is refreshing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 GFS shows it snowing in NYC while temps are in the teens. Nice ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Ewr and NYC get .46"..isp. .59 so will be very dependent on ratios whether we see 5 or 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 When will the worst of this storm will be? Overnight Thursday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 GFS holds... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 When will the worst of this storm will be? Overnight Thursday? Most models show next to nothing before Thursday evening..its an overnight system now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 GFS looks between .25 and .50 for the NJ/NYC area (west to east), with amounts to or more than 0.50 isolated to HV LI/SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Looks like a 4-6 inch snowfall for anyone west of say rt 287. Ill take it, though it does have some upside. Looks like a lead vort runs out ahead of the trough which screws the thing up a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 00z was ugly. good improvement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 When will the worst of this storm will be? Overnight Thursday? Yes - thursday during the day according to that model doesn't look like much BUT I think that dry slot and location may change and is suspect now since the models can't accurately predict that this far in advance - I would go with 4 - 8 inches now but that might change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 The instability axis still extends back toward the Jersey Shore with the heaviest snow to the north and northeast of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 The GFS is killing the chance for a monster by focusing on the Low on the polar boundary (well off the coast), this drags the most QPF with it off the coast. However it senses some cyclogenesis on the arctic boundary (closer to the coast) (that weaker 997 low off the NJ coast). That is our hope for snow, if it can consolidate on the arctic boundary (like the EURO was showing yesterday) that is how we get our big snow. Overrunning, and the polar coastal low produce next to nothing for the area. GFS is still splitting the energy between the lows with an emphasis on the polar. If it swings the other way that is our chance. JB mentioned this also in his recent posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 It wouldn't take much to bring that heavy stuff offshore back to the west. Of course if it does go the other way 3-4" still seems like a pretty safe bet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I would say 2-5 now if I HAD TO make a forecast...I always slice model QPF a bit and so doing that with the GFS and its ensembles thats about what I see...I'm not trusting the Euro at all right now...for all we know though it'll show a blizzard on its next run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 The GFS at 12z . with a set up like that " if " thats right , you most likely getting banding that only high res models will see once inside 36 hours . Will wait for Euro befor I bite , buit a tucked in SLP usually yields more than .5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I would say 2-5 now if I HAD TO make a forecast...I always slice model QPF a bit and so doing that with the GFS and its ensembles thats about what I see...I'm not trusting the Euro at all right now...for all we know though it'll show a blizzard on its next run That's with the ratios? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Just curious what doe sthe GFS indicate for Mondays storm? Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 The low is developing in response to the vort over Texas ejecting ahead of the shortwave coming in from the north. Even though the vort shears out, it's enough to pull the development a little further east than we want. f06.gif thanks....what a disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Just curious what doe sthe GFS indicate for Mondays storm?Rossi Rain moves in Sunday night..temps rising thru the 30s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Are we getting close enough to the event where it may be worth it to check the other models ie-UKIE, JMA, Canadian...? Or are these generally not worth a look at any stage? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Are we getting close enough to the event where it may be worth it to check the other models ie-UKIE, JMA, Canadian...? Or are these generally not worth a look at any stage? Not those but the RGEM and HRRR as we get closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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