winterwarlock Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Euro was not a miss but it trended the wrong way, cutting back amounts. The whole point is the trends are not our friend. Still could get 2-4 in NJ with maybe 3-6 to the north... Or we could just get 1-3.....its a nice event, but people a little nuts expecting this thing to dump a foot or more. Everyone just enjoy what you get. I know I will if its more than 2 inches but less than 4....$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 The Euro was 2-8" from west to east. Most in Central LI. Mostly from inverted trough feature, which most models that give us snow have. The coastal is not looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 The forecast will come down to the coastal trough delivering otherwise people are going to be disappointed. We could see more changes than normal within the last 48 hrs as the axis of best convergence can shift around quite a bit. I keep looking at the 500 MB map and say , why are they all shooting the max out east , but ok . The Euro control run and the 6z GFS still show a good result . I can see .50 at 15 to 1 some sounding print out 20 to 1 minus 13 - surface falling though the teens into the single digits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Euro was not a miss but it trended the wrong way, cutting back amounts. The whole point is the trends are not our friend. Still could get 2-4 in NJ with maybe 3-6 to the north... Or we could just get 1-3.....its a nice event, but people a little nuts expecting this thing to dump a foot or more. Everyone just enjoy what you get. I know I will if its more than 2 inches but less than 4....$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ I'll obviously take 2-4" but it would be such a waste of time and tracking for another nuisance event. We barely had to track the minor events in the first half of December which produced 2-4/5". It's like expecting a big payoff for all that time and effort only to get a small/insignificant reward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 For what it's worth WSI in house RPM 12z model sill has all of greater NYC in 2-4" between 6pm Thurs and 4am Friday. Also shifted highest axis of snow along and just North of I-90 from Buffalo thru Southern NH. 6-12 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I'm hoping this was sarcasm? Lol i figured it would jump of the page. i think it was PB GFI who said that he is surprised by looking at the h5 charts that the low would develop and scoot so far east....same here. Mets, any explanation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 convective feedback issues is quickly becoming one of the most overused, annoying and for the most out of context cliche's in modelology. When the Euro shows the same type of outcome will it also have issues? Ur post last night is why I thought u were being sarcastic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I've seen these types of events turn on a dime before and I would exercise caution when making snowfall forecasts. This has high bust potential in both directions. The more amplified solutions aren't totally off the table yet either. You get the idea that small improvements continue to happen at H5 and one model will probably show something huge before all is said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I've seen these types of events turn on a dime before and I would exercise caution when making snowfall forecasts. This has high bust potential in both directions. The more amplified solutions aren't totally off the table yet either. You get the idea that small improvements continue to happen at H5 and one model will probably show something huge before all is said and done. If the Nam continues trending more amped and digs more, then the end result could be considerably different so you have a point there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 If the nam showed a blizzard I would toss it, most important today is the gfs and euro holding serve or getting better. I saw posts last night that euro was a miss? What map are you guys reading? 100% agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 i figured it would jump of the page. i think it was PB GFI who said that he is surprised by looking at the h5 charts that the low would develop and scoot so far east....same here. Mets, any explanation? The low is developing in response to the vort over Texas ejecting ahead of the shortwave coming in from the north. Even though the vort shears out, it's enough to pull the development a little further east than we want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I've seen these types of events turn on a dime before and I would exercise caution when making snowfall forecasts. This has high bust potential in both directions. The more amplified solutions aren't totally off the table yet either. You get the idea that small improvements continue to happen at H5 and one model will probably show something huge before all is said and done. I think we need more than just small changes before we see something bigger on the progs. We're definitely taking baby steps but a better surface reflection may not be realized until 18z or 0z tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 When would be the first suite with full sampling - 0z tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I'll obviously take 2-4" but it would be such a waste of time and tracking for another nuisance event. We barely had to track the minor events in the first half of December which produced 2-4/5". It's like expecting a big payoff for all that time and effort only to get a small/insignificant reward. there is nothing wrong with 2-4 inch events...these are the norms...in the 80s and 90s there were years with no snow. Too many people caught up in the idea that every storm has a good shot of bringing a foot..thats not reality. This storm only had a model run or two with a big hit. Everyone ignored the other model runs saying they would come together at the end. Reality is take the 2-4 and run. Too much wishcasting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Watch for a low developing near FL later tonight. Most of the flatter solutions have the more eastern low popping in that area. That low helps to de-amplify the entire flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Out to 24 hours, I see very few differences so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Based on 30 hr gfs I don't expect too many differences this run than last. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 there is nothing wrong with 2-4 inch events...these are the norms...in the 80s and 90s there were years with no snow. Too many people caught up in the idea that every storm has a good shot of bringing a foot..thats not reality. This storm only had a model run or two with a big hit. Everyone ignored the other model runs saying they would come together at the end. Reality is take the 2-4 and run. Too much wishcasting Who is going with 2-4? Most mets including NWS is going with 6 plus. Are you taking about the NAM? The 500MB suggests a more dynamic storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 the gfs looks slightly sharper and the dry area is smaller than 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 also slightly less suppressive with the 50/50 system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 hr 54 has a 1008 east of obx which looks to be heading east…..overall so far this run looks a bit drier. hr 60 light snow has moved in.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Gfs trying to pinch off a 500mb low at 42 hours lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 the gfs looks slightly sharper and the dry area is smaller than 6z[/quote Baby steps lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 12z GFS has a moderate snowfall for the area. It has an enlogated low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Hour 60 , looks good . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 hr 63 steady snow.. hr 66 steady snow continues... hr 69 steady snow continues…temps in the teens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Packed isobars , would lov to see wind speeds on this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 hr 72 steady snow looks to be moving out…long island looks to be doing the best.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 gfs .5+ from garden state parkway-east .25+ for the rest of nj west of gsp…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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