nyblizz44 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 12z at 42 hours the northern branch is through Southern Indiana as compared its 6z at 48 hrs where it was in Norhern Ohio, So def south with the primary Ok ..how is rest of the run??! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Out thu 60 , The NAM wants no part ofthis . Ok ..how is rest of the run??! Out Thru 60 NG , will let it finish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 For whatever reason the NAM is still very progressive and the primary surface low is forming ahead of the trough axis and stringing out the whole solution. I am not sure I really understand why the low is forming so far east but I am guessing it relates to the fact that the flow is fast and the ridging out west moving east is helping to move the trough without it having a chance to truly amplify until it is too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Trended nw...dry slot phl to nyc now. A disjointed mess at the surface. This thru 54 will let run finish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 31, 2013 Author Share Posted December 31, 2013 Ok ..how is rest of the run??! Its a play-by-play please let it run its course when new data is published it will be written here, patience please thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysready126 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 as jay z would say...on to the next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 as jay z would say...on to the next Quote from SNE thread : a giant Donut hole around NYC! ( Big dryslot ) Hmmmmmm . if GFS hints same then Ill worry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 The SREF mean is coming in similar to Euro and GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 We started new threads fro Models and still its get filled with useless posts. Can we control ourselves and wait for results please. Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 For whatever reason the NAM is still very progressive and the primary surface low is forming ahead of the trough axis and stringing out the whole solution. I am not sure I really understand why the low is forming so far east but I am guessing it relates to the fact that the flow is fast and the ridging out west moving east is helping to move the trough without it having a chance to truly amplify until it is too late. At 60hr, there is another strong shortwave entering the pac n/w also. This probably isn't helping the cause. Any resemblance of ridging out west has gone by the time our storm is finally coming to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Just a light snow event on the NAM , The good news was that the 6z GFS and the 0z Euro puts down .50 in NYC . Dont go off one run . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 31, 2013 Author Share Posted December 31, 2013 Reminder to all the NAM should not be discounted per say but it has not be too accurate lately. Lets all keep that in mind as well. 12z GFS and EURO runs will be pinnacle today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 For whatever reason the NAM is still very progressive and the primary surface low is forming ahead of the trough axis and stringing out the whole solution. I am not sure I really understand why the low is forming so far east but I am guessing it relates to the fact that the flow is fast and the ridging out west moving east is helping to move the trough without it having a chance to truly amplify until it is too late. At 60hr, there is another strong shortwave entering the pac n/w also. This probably isn't helping the cause. Any resemblance of ridging out west has gone by the time our storm is finally coming to fruition. One would think all that energy out west would help hold the ridge in place but it flattens it and acts as a kicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Hr 66 low up in the Canadian maritimes already. Only meaningful precip we get is from an inverted trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Hr 66 low up in the Canadian maritimes already. Only meaningful precip we get is from an inverted trough. yeah LI verbatim 3-6, city 1-3, much less further west you go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Reminder to all the NAM should not be discounted per say but it has not be too accurate lately. Lets all keep that in mind as well. 12z GFS and EURO runs will be pinnacle today. but it's not like it's been inconsistent... the NAM hasn't really shown a blockbuster solution with this storm unlike, cough cough, the EURO which would show a blizzard one solution and a "mild" 3-6" event the next... just an observation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monmouthcounty11 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 There were improvements from the last run at H5, it was noticeably more amplified but it didn't translate to much. Maybe the next run will show a more consolidated solution, maybe not. It's not dissimilar from some of the SREF members which show a similar dry area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 It's weird the crazy nam has not shown a big storm. Its like nam its the new dr. No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 06z GFS ensembles had some members that showed dryslots as well, though they were located more towards the PHL/DCA area. Something to watch I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 must be convective feedback issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 must be convective feedback issues. It's actually the NAM's known dry bias. But seriously, it's surprising that the usually over-amplified NAM hasn't even had one BECS type solution yet. Maybe the NAM is turning a new leaf in the new year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 must be convective feedback issues. Agreed, toss the run.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 It's pretty clear that the NAM's accuracy has went up since the Christmas Snowfall. That's why it never really significantly wavered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I think banter should be allowed between runs. Nam still has time to show the massive qpf bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Simply stated this run was a disaster for nyc and phl. We get caught in the donut hole due to the trof not amplifying enough, the trof remaining positive/neutral tilt, and the energy remaining somewhat unconsolidated. It is the nam outside of its range....lets see what the gfs says. If we see something similar then its time to start worrying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 If the nam showed a blizzard I would toss it, most important today is the gfs and euro holding serve or getting better. I saw posts last night that euro was a miss? What map are you guys reading? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 If the nam showed a blizzard I would toss it, most important today is the gfs and euro holding serve or getting better. I saw posts last night that euro was a miss? What map are you guys reading? Agree , 1 . Euro ensembles 2 Euro op 3 GFS enesmbles 4 GFS op , use NAM SREF inside 48 . I take em in that order . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poleshiftnow Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 JMA looks good I will take JMA for 100 bob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Agree , 1 . Euro ensembles 2 Euro op 3 GFS enesmbles 4 GFS op , use NAM SREF inside 48 . I take em in that order . The forecast will come down to the coastal trough delivering otherwise people are going to be disappointed. We could see more changes than normal within the last 48 hrs as the axis of best convergence can shift around quite a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 If the nam showed a blizzard I would toss it, most important today is the gfs and euro holding serve or getting better. I saw posts last night that euro was a miss? What map are you guys reading? I thought the euro still dropped a general 6-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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