REDMK6GLI Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 This thread will be used for the 12z Suite today. PLEASE NO BANTER AND WEENIE POSTS. ONLY TO BE USED FOR MODEL ANALYSIS. Thank you for your anticipated cooperation -Reminder to all concerned: this storm is still over 60 hrs away and everything can and will most likely change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 If anyone was smart enough, you'd just have 1 model discussion page instead of cluttering up the thread for each suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 31, 2013 Author Share Posted December 31, 2013 If anyone was smart enough, you'd just have 1 model discussion page instead of cluttering up the thread for each suite. This serves as a two prong purpose. 1) it allows all members to sift through the correct model run and not through a super thread containing days worth of multiple model runs 2) it helps to give better analysis when model runs start running in one thread and should in theory keep more banter out of here than the general discussion thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Lets hope for the best. Nam is up first and it can only improve some from where its currently at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 31, 2013 Author Share Posted December 31, 2013 Lets hope for the best. Nam is up first and it can only improve some from where its currently at. Looking at trends from 6z to 0z the trend improved markedly not drastic but it was there and there is more room for improvement. I expect continued improvement 12z but i urge caution to all as this setup is the most fragile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I wouldn't call the 6z nam an improvement. Perhaps status quo but certainly not an improvement especially at 500mb. Trof is even less amplified to my eyes, though I could be wrong. Now on to 12z.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 We need an improvement here on the NAM. Crunch time, folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 We need an improvement here on the NAM. Crunch time, folks.Agreed. We don't even need a massive change 'yet' but need a shift in a better direction whether that be better blocking, more amplification, or a weaker kicker s/w.Imo that kicker is the most important feature and is what has been halting amplification on recent runs as well as pushing the slp ene/ne rather than nne. Now that we have better data sampling we should start seeing models latch onto a solution today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 31, 2013 Author Share Posted December 31, 2013 Agreed. We don't even need a massive change 'yet' but need a shift in a better direction whether that be better blocking, more amplification, or a weaker kicker s/w. Imo that kicker is the most important feature and is what has been halting amplification on recent runs as well as pushing the slp ene/ne rather than nne. Now that we have better data sampling we should start seeing models latch onto a solution today. Very true, like you said there was "some" improvement on the 6z run and i personally think today will be a game of baby steps whether it be in favor of amplification or not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Baby steps are still ok imo....for now we have time on our side but this run needs to show us 'something'. Its the suspense that gets me! :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Sure is quite what time is the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Yea, these next runs need to produce. Hopefully its an exciting day ! This shouldnt be banter considering we didnt start yet...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Sure is quite what time is the nam Running now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 31, 2013 Author Share Posted December 31, 2013 Sure is quite what time is the nam 12z NAM initializes 9:15-9:30. I can almost guarantee it will be a nut house in this forum by that time going forward today. I just hope this thread wont be cluttered and the mode i think will step up to the plate if this storm does come to fruition Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 12z NAM initializes 9:15-9:30. I can almost guarantee it will be a nut house in this forum by that time going forward today. I just hope this thread wont be cluttered and the mode i think will step up to the plate if this storm does come to fruition NAM is already running. Negligable differences so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Sure is quite what time is the nam Started at 8:45. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 The NAM is already way more amplified and energetic with the N stream when compared to it's 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Nam really digging this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 This serves as a two prong purpose. 1) it allows all members to sift through the correct model run and not through a super thread containing days worth of multiple model runs 2) it helps to give better analysis when model runs start running in one thread and should in theory keep more banter out of here than the general discussion thread Sorry, not a fan of having all the info spread across multiple threads rather than spread across multiple pages of one thread, as the latter makes for faster/easier navigation and allows discussion of multiple model suite runs in the same thread. And it makes me wonder where to post "general" information, like the snowmap that the NWS in NYC just issued - normally that would simply go into the discussion thread, but that thread is dead now. So, I'll post it here. Solid 6-8" everywhere in their forecast area on the map and the AFD, as per the excerpt below. As an aside, I've noticed that the NYC office has generally been putting out maps and forecast snowfall amounts in their AFDs earlier than the Philly office this season. I like it, even if there's more uncertainty. BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT IT REMAINS COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL BE THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING WHERE 4-6 INCHES COULD FALL. OF COURSE AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHER WHERE ANY MESOSCALE BANDS OCCUR...SO CURRENT THINKING IS 5 TO 9 INCHES ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS INTERIOR LOCATIONS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 The NAM is already way more amplified and energetic with the N stream when compared to it's 00z run. Sorry if this is in the wrong spot, but the ridge out west looks a bit better as well. Is that a result of the n stream digging a bit better, or is it the other way around? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monmouthcounty11 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Srefs were a better overall than previous run, still a decent amount spread among individual members, bust more precip shown then before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 The NAM is already way more amplified and energetic with the N stream when compared to it's 00z run. Sorry if this is in the wrong spot, but the ridge out west looks a bit better as well. Is that a result of the n stream digging a bit better, or is it the other way around? They both have an affect on each other a bit, but the ridge moreso helps the N stream gain amplitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Srefs were a better overall than previous run, still a decent amount spread among individual members, bust more precip shown then before. SREF actually went down ever so slightly (about .4") for LGA for the Mean... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 31, 2013 Author Share Posted December 31, 2013 John thanks for joining us once again today for some PbP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monmouthcounty11 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 SREF actually went down ever so slightly (about .4") for LGA for the Mean... Don't just look at the plumes or precip totals. Many of the members are much less disjointed than before. Edit: The ARW members are significantly better, the NMB are pretty similar, the NMM are worse. A wash I guess in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Is it just me or does it look like the nam wants to develop a miller A/B hybrid? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Is it just me or does it look like the nam wants to develop a miller A/B hybrid? Miller a/b hybrid is what the euro showed on a previous run i think.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I don't know what else to make of this other than a nice block developing over greenland and davis strait: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 12z at 42 hours the northern branch is through Southern Indiana as compared its 6z at 48 hrs where it was in Norhern Ohio, So def south with the primary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Slow updates worry me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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