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Potential Light Snow Event January 2nd-3rd


John1122

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I noticed that too.  I am holding out hope the models will trend south and east with the late weekend system.  It was nice to FINALLY see the NAM realize heavier precip amounts.  It's usually the model that is OVER juiced.

Watch your wet bulb,it should start snowing sometime after hr 36 here in M/TN by the NAM,but if you are in the Southern zones via the NAM you're gonna get dry slotted

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.STRONG COLD FRONT AND COASTAL LOW AFFECTING THE EASTERN U.S...

PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS

WITH THE SHORTWAVE NOW IN THE UPPER AIR NETWORK THE MODELS

CONVERGED TOWARD A COMMON SOLUTION BEGINNING WITH THE 31/12Z

CYCLE. A STRONG MAJORITY OF 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND 18Z

GEFS MEMBERS SUPPORTED THE GROWING OPERATIONAL MODEL CONSENSUS

WHICH CENTERS AROUND THE GFS/ECMWF/UKMET. THE 00Z NAM MATCHED

CONSENSUS THROUGH 03/12Z...DURING THE PERIOD OF MOST IMPACTFUL

WEATHER RELATED TO THIS SYSTEM. IT THEN BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF

PHASE WITH THE GFS/ECMWF...AND APPEARS MUCH LESS RELIABLE BY

04/00Z. PART OF THE ISSUE IN THE NAM IS ITS VERY RAPID MOVEMENT OF

THE WEAK SHORTWAVE DISCUSSED IN THE NEXT SECTION. THIS LEADS

FLATTENING AND RAPID PROGRESSION OF THE FLOW ALONG THE EAST COAST

ON DAY 3. THE 00Z GFS TRENDED JUST VERY SLIGHTLY DEEPER...AND BOTH

THE NAM/GFS INTRODUCE A CLOSED 700 MB CONTOUR OFF THE NEW ENGLAND

COAST AT 03/12Z. THE 00Z GFS GENERALLY MAINTAINS CONTINUITY WITH

OUR PREFERENCES FROM THE 12Z CYCLE...AND WHATEVER SMALL SCALE

RUN-TO-RUN VARIATIONS IT DISPLAYS APPEAR REASONABLE.

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The JKL outlook on what the NAM was showing.

 

 

 

IT WILL BE INTERESTING
TO SEE HOW THE 0Z/1ST GFS AND 0Z/1ST ECWMF TREND FROM THEIR PREVIOUS
RUNS. CONFIDENCE IN THE 0Z NAM IS LOW AT THIS POINT...BUT ADDITIONAL
0Z MODEL DATA AND MODEL RUNS SHOULD SHED MORE LIGHT ON THIS EVENT.
FROM ABOUT 48 HOUR FORECAST ON...THE NAM SOMETIMES GOES ON TANGENTS...SO
STAY TUNED.
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I know it's late and I can't sleep but the 6z NAM just rolled out and it has our trough more negatively tilted. This run is even juicier than 0z. Best run by far for East TN concerning QPF.

500mb Vort:

jejejata.jpg

Surface Precip:

e2anugu4.jpg

QPF:

y4aju6yd.jpg

I have a feeling tomorrow will be a interesting day and that we are still not done yet with the changes.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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Carvers Gap got me thinking about some software to draw snowfall maps with and I found a free website called http://scribblemaps.com/ that allows you draw on Google Map. It was much easier to draw the lines and fill in the color. Here is my attempt at a new map using this website. It is basically the same as the last one as my thoughts haven't really changed and it might be generous except for the higher terrain.

 

post-6441-0-77180900-1388598955_thumb.jp

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Carvers Gap got me thinking about some software to draw snowfall maps with and I found a free website called http://scribblemaps.com/ that allows you draw on Google Map. It was much easier to draw the lines and fill in the color. Here is my attempt at a new map using this website. It is basically the same as the last one as my thoughts haven't really changed and it might be generous except for the higher terrain.

 

attachicon.gifJanuary 2-3 Light Snow and Upslope.JPG

Good map,almost looks like what the 12z Euro shows,i believe everyone in the Valley right now will see some snow from this one.

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GENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
315 PM EST WED JAN 1 2014

...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...

.AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS THURSDAY...PRODUCING WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN. AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...PULLING COLD AIR INTO THE REGION. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO
SNOW LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE FOR LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND THE FAR EASTERN TENNESSEE
MOUNTAINS. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...AND LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA.

BESIDES THE SNOW...VERY COLD AIR AND BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS
AND LOWER 20S THURSDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS FRIDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE
20S AND LOWER 30S. WIND CHILL VALUES FRIDAY MORNING WILL FALL TO
BETWEEN -5 AND -10 DEGREES IN THE MOUNTAINS.

TNZ018-041-043-045-047-072-074-087-VAZ002-021000-
/O.UPG.KMRX.WS.A.0001.140102T2100Z-140103T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KMRX.WS.W.0001.140102T2000Z-140103T1200Z/
JOHNSON-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST GREENE-UNICOI-
SOUTHEAST CARTER-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHEAST MONROE-WISE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOUNTAIN CITY...COSBY...CEDAR CREEK...
ERWIN...ROAN MOUNTAIN...CADES COVE...GATLINBURG...COKER CREEK...
WISE...NORTON
315 PM EST WED JAN 1 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST
FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM
THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN
EFFECT.

* EVENT...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE...WITH UP
  TO 8 INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

* TIMING...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF
  MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY EVENING. SNOW
  SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING
  TO FLURRIES AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY.

* IMPACTS...ROADS MAY BECOME SNOW AND ICE COVERED AND SLICK LATE
  THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ROADWAYS AT OR ABOVE
  2500 FEET. PERIODS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES BELOW ONE HALF OF A
  MILE MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING.  SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW
ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. IN
ADDITION...SNOWFALL INTENSITIES WILL BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO
SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.  TRAVEL IS DISCOURAGED.
IF TRAVEL IS UNAVOIDABLE...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND
WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

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I expect a classic MRX WWA for the Plateau/Northern Valley/SWVA either tonight around 10-11 or by 3:30-4 tomorrow morning. Possibly all the way down to 40. Likely an SPS  south of 40. WWA for most of Kentucky, possibly a WSW in extreme ESE KY. I expect OHX to issue a WWA for their Plateau counties, possibly even all of their north of 40 counties. Not exactly sure of their criteria.

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And I look on the website and...

 

 

 

...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...

.AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS THURSDAY...PRODUCING WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN. AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...PULLING COLD AIR INTO THE REGION. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO
SNOW LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE FOR LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND THE FAR EASTERN TENNESSEE
MOUNTAINS. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...AND LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA.

BESIDES THE SNOW...VERY COLD AIR AND BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS
AND LOWER 20S THURSDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS FRIDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE
20S AND LOWER 30S. WIND CHILL VALUES FRIDAY MORNING WILL FALL TO
BETWEEN -5 AND -10 DEGREES IN THE MOUNTAINS.

TNZ012>015-VAZ001-005-008-021000-
/O.NEW.KMRX.WW.Y.0001.140102T2000Z-140103T1200Z/
SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-LEE-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ONEIDA...LA FOLLETTE...TAZEWELL...
SNEEDVILLE...JONESVILLE...GATE CITY...ABINGDON
315 PM EST WED JAN 1 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THURSDAY TO 7 AM
EST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THURSDAY
TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY.

* EVENT...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

* TIMING...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE
DIMINISHING TO FLURRIES AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY.

* IMPACTS...ROADS MAY BECOME SNOW AND ICE COVERED AND SLICK LATE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING...BUT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.
DRIVING AND WALKING MAY BE DIFFICULT ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS AND
SIDEWALKS. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED
VISIBILITIES. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...SLOW DOWN AND ALLOW EXTRA TIME
TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION.
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I'm really concerned that there won't be much precip around when the low departs and the cold comes in. I'm wondering if anyone below 2500 feet will get anything more than a inch.

I guess all we can do is hope. They said there was plenty of moisture to generate upslope that would spill into the valley areas.

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I have been out of pocket most of the day and just now getting a chance to look at the 12z Euro Control run. It takes the low (northeast Mississippi to NE TN/SW VA). This run of the control is DEFINITELY further south and east, which is interesting, if for no other reason b/c we are so close to the event.

I can't see the snow map at pro.accuweather (for some reason they haven't updated the snow maps in 2 days.... ughhhh), but with the track I would think parts of west and central TN (north of I-40) would do quite well.

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Can someone explain the difference between the op and control run of the euro? I had thought the control was like an ensemble mean? But I was told by someone else that the control was the op.

The operational model is re-run at a lower resolution (the control run) and this is then repeated 50 times, each with slightly different starting conditions. The use of ensemble predictions derived from operational weather forecasting models will identify the expected ‘spread’ of weather conditions and assess the probability of particular weather events. As such, it influences the confidence a forecaster places on weather events taking place.

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Ensemble Prediction System and monthly forecast

The Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) runs 50 perturbed forecasts (different forecast with perturbed initial conditions) and a control (unperturbed) forecast.

The EPS changes its resolution from day 10 of the forecast period; it extends the forecast range to 15 days.

The monthly forecast system is linked to EPS; it extends the forecast range from day 16 to day 32.

Atmospheric and ocean components run uncoupled for the first 10 days and coupled from then onwards.

The hindcast system consists of a 5-member ensemble of 32-day EPS/monthly integrations, starting on the same day and month as the real-time forecast for each of the past 18 years.

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Carvers Gap got me thinking about some software to draw snowfall maps with and I found a free website called http://scribblemaps.com/ that allows you draw on Google Map. It was much easier to draw the lines and fill in the color. Here is my attempt at a new map using this website. It is basically the same as the last one as my thoughts haven't really changed and it might be generous except for the higher terrain.

Nice map, 1234Snow. Looks like a good forecast.

I wonder if MRX is trying to be careful since folks are traveling....

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Carvers Gap got me thinking about some software to draw snowfall maps with and I found a free website called http://scribblemaps.com/ that allows you draw on Google Map. It was much easier to draw the lines and fill in the color. Here is my attempt at a new map using this website. It is basically the same as the last one as my thoughts haven't really changed and it might be generous except for the higher terrain.

 

attachicon.gifJanuary 2-3 Light Snow and Upslope.JPG

 

Nice map and nice find on that drawing website!

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MRX had fired up a WWA for extreme NE TN for 6pm tonight to 7am in the morning and their Short Term Forecast focuses on the early period of freezing rain this morning:

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
348 AM EST THU JAN 2 2014

..SNOWY CONDITIONS AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR
LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOPING ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS TODAY PRODUCING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. AN ARCTIC
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON PULLING MUCH COLDER
AIR INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE COLD AIR WILL CHANGE THE
PRECIPITATION TO ALL SNOW BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FOR LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT
ACROSS THE AREA WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND THE FAR EASTERN TENNESSEE
MOUNTAINS...GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 2500 FEET. LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PLATEAU...NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY...AND CHEROKEE AND CLAY COUNTIES OF NORTH
CAROLINA.

BESIDES THE SNOW...VERY COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S...AND HIGHS FRIDAY
IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S. THE COLD AIR COMBINED WITH BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 15 AND 30 MPH TONIGHT WILL PRODUCE WIND
CHILLS BETWEEN -5 AND 5 DEGREES ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND
SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE.


TNZ016-017-042-044-046-021700-
/O.EXB.KMRX.WW.Y.0001.140102T2300Z-140103T1200Z/
HAWKINS-SULLIVAN-NORTHWEST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-NORTHWEST CARTER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROGERSVILLE...KINGSPORT...BRISTOL...
GREENEVILLE...JOHNSON CITY...ELIZABETHTON
348 AM EST THU JAN 2 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
7 AM EST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS
EVENING TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY.

* EVENT...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
  BEGINNING THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT.

* TIMING...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
  EVENING. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
  DIMINISHING TO FLURRIES BEFORE DAYBREAK FRIDAY.

* IMPACTS...ROADS MAY BECOME SNOW AND ICE COVERED AND SLICK
  TONIGHT.

 

Here's the short term forecast:

 

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
502 AM EST THU JAN 2 2014

TNZ015>018-042>047-VAZ001-002-005-006-008-021300-
HANCOCK-HAWKINS-SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-NORTHWEST GREENE-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST CARTER-LEE-WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SNEEDVILLE...ROGERSVILLE...KINGSPORT...
BRISTOL...MOUNTAIN CITY...GREENEVILLE...CEDAR CREEK...
JOHNSON CITY...ERWIN...ELIZABETHTON...ROAN MOUNTAIN...
JONESVILLE...WISE...NORTON...GATE CITY...LEBANON...ABINGDON
502 AM EST THU JAN 2 2014

.NOW...
AN AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE EAST AT 30 MPH INTO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA
AND NORTHEAST TENNESSEE THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE AT OR BELOW
FREEZING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...SO THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET. AREAS OF LIGHT ICING CAN BE EXPECTED
BEFORE DAYBREAK...SO DRIVE WITH CAUTION AND SLOW DOWN. GIVE
YOURSELF EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION. TEMPERATURES WILL
SLOWLY WARM ABOVE FREEZING SOON AFTER DAYBREAK.

 

 

Y'all be careful if you have to drive this morning!
 

 

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