leemhoc Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 for so many reasons, esp when dealing with NYC i use 10:1... it has served me very well even in situations where everyone is calling for great snow ratios (ala the 12/15 storm)... even if you get higher rates during the storm, I feel like all the mitigating factors (virga, time it takes to lay, compaction) etc, makes 10:1 usually pretty accurate.. banking on high ratio snow is a game I dont play, but thats just me.. On the heat island itself I understand. In the suburbs especially Long Island will be helped a lot by good ratios in this storm IMO. Nj as well. I will use them when it is very likely to get those high ratios, because it can make a big difference in terms of snow totals. If I am giving amounts of snow that a model shows, I will factor ratios in if there is a high probability it will occur, and in this situation I feel confident they will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 for so many reasons, esp when dealing with NYC i use 10:1... it has served me very well even in situations where everyone is calling for great snow ratios (ala the 12/15 storm)... even if you get higher rates during the storm, I feel like all the mitigating factors (virga, time it takes to lay, compaction) etc, makes 10:1 usually pretty accurate.. banking on high ratio snow is a game I dont play, but thats just me.. This is an event where guaranteed you'll see better than 10 to 1, you're not seeing 20 to 1 but 15 certainly possible, this may be the coldest snow event for NY since 1/16/04 and maybe up there with 1/96 and 2/03 we don't see snow with these temps often Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Hah....anyone look at the rest of the GFS? The heavier snow for NYC is just 3 days later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 This is an event where guaranteed you'll see better than 10 to 1, you're not seeing 20 to 1 but 15 certainly possible, this may be the coldest snow event for NY since 1/16/04 and maybe up there with 1/96 and 2/03 we don't see snow with these temps often fair enough... like I said, I tend to use it as a rule of thumb rather than fact as in MOST cases it works out well.. this may be one of the exceptions as you pointed out.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I agree .7 at 12 to 1 - 15 to 1 . You are still looking at 8 to 10 if that's right . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I agree .7 at 12 to 1 - 15 to 1 . You are still looking at 8 to 10 if that's right . not to split hairs but its pretty clear that NYC is on the edge of .4 and .5 there.. no higher for NYC itself.. more out on LI but for the city itself id even lean closer to .4 than .5 if we're being realistic about it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 not to split hairs but its pretty clear that NYC is on the edge of .4 and .5 there.. no higher for NYC itself.. more out on LI but for the city itself id even lean closer to .4 than .5 if we're being realistic about it.. Dark blue is .5 to .6 Monmouth onto Long Island next shade is .6 to .7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leemhoc Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Anyone know what happened in detail with euro ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 The 6z GFS bufkit shows about .48" total qpf for LGA. Snow ratios Thursday night and Friday are 15-25 to 1. So it shows snowfall total about 9". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 The 6z GFS bufkit shows about .48" total qpf for LGA. Snow ratios Thursday night and Friday are 15-25 to 1. So it shows snowfall total about 9". 15:1 is about the best you will get out of this set-up... but still not a bad storm if that were to verify.. 12:1 - 15:1 is your best bet with this one and I think 15 is still on the higher end.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Anyone know what happened in detail with euro ensembles? You'll have to go over to the 0Z thread... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 15:1 is about the best you will get out of this set-up... but still not a bad storm if that were to verify.. 12:1 - 15:1 is your best bet with this one and I think 15 is still on the higher end.. Really? Even with temps in the teens? I feel like it can be at least 15:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 We have seen 15 to 1 before in NYC , with the 850`s at Minus 10 and the Surface at 10 that`s 15 to 1 . So just bump the QPF and you are Golden if you get .5 you get 7 if you get .7 you get 10 , its right there . Looking at the 6z GFS , you realize the 1 inch line is 75 miles East of the coast . its not like its 300 miles E The problem is was last nite the last trend East ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Probably over 6-7"at LGA this run of the GFS with better ratios at the tail end of the storm as the -10c 850's reach here Thursday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Guys in a progressive pattern a 8-10" storm is a score no matter how you look at it. And if we can still get some digging like yesterday it is gravy. We said a few days the pattern is not condusive for a KU unless its a miracle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Looks like the gfs ens 06z mean is a little wetter then operational. .5+ And .75+ Long Island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Guys in a progressive pattern a 8-10" storm is a score no matter how you look at it. And if we can still get some digging like yesterday it is gravy. We said a few days the pattern is not condusive for a KU unless its a miracle That kicker coming into the west is really keeping this moving. Hopefully, the coastal trough convergence zone doesn't turn out to be a little weaker than advertised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Probably over 6-7"at LGA this run of the GFS with better ratios at the tail end of the storm as the -10c 850's reach here Thursday night. prec.png Ha. I have to fly out of LGA on Monday, probably right at the height of that precip, which is forming a middle finger at me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 not to split hairs but its pretty clear that NYC is on the edge of .4 and .5 there.. no higher for NYC itself.. more out on LI but for the city itself id even lean closer to .4 than .5 if we're being realistic about it.. NYC's qpf is 0.50". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 check this out - and this is not frozen here -good chance we will be sitting here looking at bare ground again next tuesday no blocking and NAO forecasted to go positive after the late week storm causes the arctic air to move right along with milder temps following for a couple days with a soaker then back into the ice box - wash rinse repeat - similar to 1994 http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Man the spiking footballs and " I told you so" when the euro came out last night were ridiculous. That is just as annoying as people calling for a blizzard 3 or 4 days out Pretty bold when the storm is three days out. Could very well bring it back. We will see. I don't think either is a very constructive approach Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Don , Take a look at that ridge axis , without blocking , does that argue for the max to escape like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Ha. I have to fly out of LGA on Monday, probably right at the height of that precip, which is forming a middle finger at me. Sounds like fun. It will be interesting to see the exact position of the instability trough as the heaviest snows will be near and north. We are good this run since the axis cuts across the Jersey Shore with TT's over 40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Don , Take a look at that ridge axis , without blocking , does that argue for the max to escape like that This is complex at more than just 500 mb. Every little detail will matter, so I don't think one can automatically assume it should not escape. Having said that, there is room for some improvement and certainly 6z was an improvement over 0z. It will be interesting to see what happens at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Looks like the gfs ens 06z mean is a little wetter then operational. .5+ And .75+ Long Island ...maybe for once the east end might have a better chance to get more snow than western sections..haven't had a 'east end special' in a while... ( LI boys..what do u think? ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Man the spiking footballs and " I told you so" when the euro came out last night were ridiculous. That is just as annoying as people calling for a blizzard 3 or 4 days out Pretty bold when the storm is three days out. Could very well bring it back. We will see. I don't think either is a very constructive approach shouldn't be hugging the models - should be hugging the pattern and this pattern is a progressive one which argues for some really wild swings in weather but with litttle blocking MECS or HECS are not favored - what is favored is a moderate snowstorm maybe a SECS then very cold for a couple days then a dramatic warmup over the weekend with believe it or not a rainstorm sunday - monday and then another blast of arctic air middle of next week - strap yourself in this is going to be a wild ride the next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 ...maybe for once the east end might have a better chance to get more snow than western sections..haven't had a 'east end special' in a while... ( LI boys..what do u think? ) can't be serious right? I mean didn't you make out in February ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 can't be serious right? I mean didn't you make out in February ?? ..yeah we did..had thunder/lighting which actually turned the precip to rain..never forget radar depictions as a speck of 'green' (rain ) got larger and larger..had rain for a couple of hours.NWS discussion that night confirmed the c/o..blaming it on 'latent heat' from lighting !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Trying to be the voice of reason right now. The 6z was a marked improvement from 0z suite and that should be noted, as don just stated its an interesting and difficult setup and its fragile, patience and dont let your emotions get the best of you. Best of luck when you participate in my 12z thread i just made Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.