WE GOT HIM Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Now that the 0z Euro has backed off on the intensity of the storm, we are moving towards a 3-6" consensus with very cold temps. However with all the energy yet to be sampled we still have some time for things to change. Lets see what the 06z runs have to say for themselves... Summary of tonight's 00z suite NYC QPF wed 12z - sat 00z NAM: 0.40 - 0.60 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/00/nam_namer_084_precip_ptot.gif GFS: 0.25 - 0.40 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_namer_096_precip_ptot.gif GGEM: 0.10 - 0.25 http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/accum/PR_024-096_0000.gif UKMET: looks similar to the ggem thru 72 hrs ECM: 0.50 I don't have the ecm yet but judging by others comments 0.50 0z GFS QPF: BOS: 0.81" EWR: 0.34" HPN: 0.40" ISP: 0.51" NYC: 0.36" PHL: 0.20" 0z ECWMF QPF: BOS: 0.59" EWR: 0.41" HPN: 0.45" ISP: 0.69" NYC: 0.45" PHL: 0.34" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted December 31, 2013 Author Share Posted December 31, 2013 First up: SREFs is similar to 21z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Nam looks a bit more amplified out West through 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peregrinator Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 36 hr NAM is more amped than 00z, but considerably less amped/organized than the 00z GFS was at 42 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted December 31, 2013 Author Share Posted December 31, 2013 Nam is more north with the overrunning than 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Euro ensembles va capes and ene from there...similar to the OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leemhoc Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Euro ensembles va capes and ene from there Similar to the op no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Similar to the op no? I edited it as u posted that haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted December 31, 2013 Author Share Posted December 31, 2013 Nam does not dig as much as 0z, Its gonna be much dryer than 0z - .10 -.25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Nam does not dig as much as 0z, Its gonna be much dryer than 0z Yup looks that way so far..overrunning stays north. Not digging enough. H5 looks like crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leemhoc Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 0z nam was much better at h5. Thankfully, it's the nam not gfs. Not many good trends tonight to say the least. However, we have three model suites basically left before real now casting. Three suites ago (12z Sunday) the storm was much different. I know we are closer, but a lot can change in a few model suites. The most likely outcome ATM is a 4-8 event with more n and e. However, I really believe this can get bigger, all we need is the trough to dig a bit more and tilt negatively, and we are in business. It's unlikely at this point, but not out of the possibility. I have heard that the 12z suite today will be the first with real onshore data from the players in this scenario. Hopefully good trends starting with the 6z gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 It was better at h5 but still not good. Lol With that said we should have a really good idea of expectations after the 0z suite later tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 It was better at h5 but still not good. Lol With that said we should have a really good idea of expectations after the 0z suite later tonight The overrunning is centered right on I-90 still, and the dryslot from hell is just south of that. That has to change if we really want a chance without a powerful coastal low. Inverted troughs are too unpredictable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Wow....bad feeling our hopes are falling apart. NAM pretty much falls through with the idea for us. Bad trends on all models unfortunately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I mean with the qpf output by the gfs/euro and what looks to be at least decent ratios, it doesn't look awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Wow....bad feeling our hopes are falling apart. NAM pretty much falls through with the idea for us. Bad trends on all models unfortunately This event has just sh*t the bed. Plain and simple for the NYC area. 4-6 inch event it looks like, not 10-15 inches. Looks like a high end WWA event, not even a WSW for area. Forget about the Blizz warning. I think the overrunning zone will shift south, with cold air in place and better 700 mb UVV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leemhoc Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 This event has just sh*t the bed. Plain and simple for the NYC area. 4-6 inch event it looks like, not 10-15 inches. Looks like a high end WWA event, not even a WSW for area. Forget about the Blizz warning. Ur kidding right. Still 2 days out plenty can change. Even if we get .5 of precip, ratios are real good so you could get 6-8. I think this will turn out a 6-10 ish storm area wide, which is a secs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 The NAM is a whiff , im not ignoring it , but the SREF mean is 5 inches in NYC @ HR 72 850 `s -5 and the surface is 20 .1 falls ....... As for the 0z Euro in NYC @ HR 78 850`s - 8 and the surface is 15 .3 falls at 12 to 1 thats 3.6 @ HR 84 850`s - 13 and the surface is 8 .2 falls at 12 to 1 thats 2.4 ( if it went 15 to 1 here ) I wouldnt be shocked , this is not a 10 to 1 storm with the profiles . So the Euro is still in line with a Warning type event ,( EVEN AT 12 TO 1 ) as long as this doesnt come any further S . Yes QPF in NYC went from .8 at 12z to .5 at 0z and thats not good , but it happens so we gotta deal with it . This gets saved by it being a cold storm , so if Sat AM is 10 above , not 10 below its still make you think your in Alaska . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leemhoc Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Northern stream little bit more amped 6z gfs through 27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leemhoc Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 At 36 still bit more amped, trough digging a bit more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 The NAM is a whiff , im not ignoring it , but the SREF mean is 5 inches in NYC @ HR 72 850 `s -5 and the surface is 20 .1 falls ....... As for the 0z Euro in NYC @ HR 78 850`s - 8 and the surface is 15 .3 falls at 12 to 1 thats 3.6 @ HR 84 850`s - 13 and the surface is 8 .2 falls at 12 to 1 thats 2.4 ( if it went 15 to 1 here ) I wouldnt be shocked , this is not a 10 to 1 storm with the profiles . So the Euro is still in line with a Warning type event ,( EVEN AT 12 TO 1 ) as long as this doesnt come any further S . Yes QPF in NYC went from .8 at 12z to .5 at 0z and thats not good , but it happens so we gotta deal with it . This gets saved by it being a cold storm , so if Sat AM is 10 above , not 10 below its still make you think your in Alaska . I want to see some polar bears to complete the look... Is that too much to ask for ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted December 31, 2013 Author Share Posted December 31, 2013 gfs looks much wetter than 0z, mostly from costal. -.5 - .75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 gfs looks much wetter than 0z Yeah looks pretty good though we get next to nothing before Thursday evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leemhoc Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 gfs looks much wetter than 0z Yup. Main vort was more amplified leading to the trough digging more. Was close to something bigger though. Good run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Yup. Main vort was more amplified leading to the trough digging more. Was close to something bigger though. Good run. Now I can enjoy my Cheerios this morning. Earplugs, stabilizer, gas on standby, snowblower in standby mode. Are we "Finding N*mo?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leemhoc Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 With good ratios, that is a solid 6-10 snowfall if not more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Now I can enjoy my Cheerios this morning. Earplugs, stabilizer, gas on standby, snowblower in standby mode. Are we "Finding N*mo?" ha, we absolutely are not finding that stupid fish.... pretty good consensus among the models (except NAM) of a 3-6 type event based on GFS/EURO/SREF Mean mixture.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Gfs iis 4-8 from the 06z run. Highest totals from city-east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leemhoc Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 ha, we absolutely are not finding that stupid fish.... pretty good consensus among the models (except NAM) of a 3-6 type event based on GFS/EURO/SREF Mean mixture.. Haven't seen snow maps for 6z gfs, but verbatim it is probAbaly double 3-6. .5-.75 with good ratios as depicted would probAbaly yield 7-12 inches of snow. Euro was about .4-.5 ish which is about 5-8 inches. Not using srefs just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Haven't seen snow maps for 6z gfs, but verbatim it is probAbaly double 3-6. .5-.75 with good ratios as depicted would probAbaly yield 7-12 inches of snow. Euro was about .4-.5 ish which is about 5-8 inches. Not using srefs just yet. for so many reasons, esp when dealing with NYC i use 10:1... it has served me very well even in situations where everyone is calling for great snow ratios (ala the 12/15 storm)... even if you get higher rates during the storm, I feel like all the mitigating factors (virga, time it takes to lay, compaction) etc, makes 10:1 usually pretty accurate.. banking on high ratio snow is a game I dont play, but thats just me.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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