Chicago WX Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 In NAVGEM we trust It didn't too bad with this current storm. Yeah I know. I figured you get the general back part of the storm to give everyone an idea. Sorry, I wasn't trying to pick on you. Just saying for those looking for the next storm's possible totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Hoping for a slight shift south or else YYZ may be looking at p-type issues and poor ratios (at least with 00Z EURO track). Let's see what the 12Z brings. 00Z EURO text for YYZ: ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: YYZ LAT= 43.67 LON= -79.63 ELE= 568 00Z JAN02 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 © © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THKSUN 12Z 05-JAN -1.0 -7.1 1017 85 98 0.02 547 534 SUN 18Z 05-JAN 0.7 -6.9 1015 82 92 0.04 545 532 MON 00Z 06-JAN -0.4 -6.6 1011 96 100 0.09 541 533 MON 06Z 06-JAN -0.6 -5.1 997 96 100 0.41 532 535 MON 12Z 06-JAN -5.1 -9.7 999 78 96 0.26 518 518 MON 18Z 06-JAN -5.7 -17.1 1005 59 36 0.01 511 507 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Hoosier's guy going all in...emphasis on Blizzard Watch. Winter Storm/Blizzard Watch is possible by tomorrow. Snowfall totals are in question. I conservatively went with 1-4″ yesterday, but it appears a 4-8″ snow may be in the offing. Right now, looks like +8″ may fall southeast & east of here. http://blogs.wlfi.com/2014/01/02/blizzard-conditions-then-coldest-temps-since-jan-1999-wind-chills-to-35-by-monday/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Anyone see the 84-96 on the NAVGEM? Surface low basically goes due north as the phase occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Here's where the 12Z Ukie ends up. Again from 1010 over AR to just northeast of Toronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Hoosier's guy going all in...emphasis on Blizzard Watch. http://blogs.wlfi.com/2014/01/02/blizzard-conditions-then-coldest-temps-since-jan-1999-wind-chills-to-35-by-monday/ I thought it was YOUR guy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Wics out of Springfield was hinting at several inches possible sat night and sun... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Hoosier's guy going all in...emphasis on Blizzard Watch. http://blogs.wlfi.com/2014/01/02/blizzard-conditions-then-coldest-temps-since-jan-1999-wind-chills-to-35-by-monday/ We might get close if the deeper/quicker phased solutions verify. Gonna be blowing and drifting issues in any case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 In a honesty, this is looking more and more like a blizzard for a good part of the sub-forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 In a honesty, this is looking more and more like a blizzard for a good part of the sub-forum. yep, it's just hard to believe. It's kinda come out of no where with us focused on the recent storm. But really by 12z tomorrow watches and maybe warnings will be up all over the sub forum. This has STL, Indy, Laf, Evansville, Detroit, parts of Ohio special written all over it and even reaching up into Central IL, SE Lot zones as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Anyone see the 84-96 on the NAVGEM? Surface low basically goes due north as the phase occurs. Low goes east of Columbus, but not much. However, the cold air would wrap in very quickly, so snow would not really be an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 In a honesty, this is looking more and more like a blizzard for a good part of the sub-forum. Haven't had blizzard warnings in southern Ontario since Feb 2011 and those were all well west of my backyard and Toronto. Not sure when blizzard warnings were last issued in the Greater Toronto Area... can any TO posters chime in on that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Haven't had blizzard warnings in southern Ontario since Feb 2011 and those were all well west of my backyard and Toronto. Not sure when blizzard warnings were last issued in the Greater Toronto Area... can any TO posters chime in on that? I believe it was the 1993 superstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Hoping for a slight shift south or else YYZ may be looking at p-type issues and poor ratios (at least with 00Z EURO track). Let's see what the 12Z brings. 00Z EURO text for YYZ: ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: YYZ LAT= 43.67 LON= -79.63 ELE= 568 00Z JAN02 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 © © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK SUN 12Z 05-JAN -1.0 -7.1 1017 85 98 0.02 547 534 SUN 18Z 05-JAN 0.7 -6.9 1015 82 92 0.04 545 532 MON 00Z 06-JAN -0.4 -6.6 1011 96 100 0.09 541 533 MON 06Z 06-JAN -0.6 -5.1 997 96 100 0.41 532 535 MON 12Z 06-JAN -5.1 -9.7 999 78 96 0.26 518 518 MON 18Z 06-JAN -5.7 -17.1 1005 59 36 0.01 511 507 Thankfully the GEM is much further south. I'll take a composite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 12z Euro is going to be big again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Thankfully the GEM is much further south. I'll take a composite. The EURO was still good for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Haven't had blizzard warnings in southern Ontario since Feb 2011 and those were all well west of my backyard and Toronto. Not sure when blizzard warnings were last issued in the Greater Toronto Area... can any TO posters chime in on that? I believe it was the 1993 superstorm. http://www.ec.gc.ca/meteo-weather/default.asp?n=D9553AB5-1#blizzard Well Environment Canada has a certain criteria for Blizzard warnings to be issued. In most cases, they always issue a SW or WSW rather than a BW. And SSC, didnt they issue it for the Jan 1999 storm? Based on EC's climate page, the 1993 superstorm was only around 4-8" for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Euro is going to be huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Euro is going to be huge. For? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 12z Euro is going to be big again. It looks nice. The PV digs more further south and the phase becomes more defined than the 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 985 mb over central/eastern Lake Ontario at 96 hours...12z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 http://www.ec.gc.ca/meteo-weather/default.asp?n=D9553AB5-1#blizzard Well Environment Canada has a certain criteria for Blizzard warnings to be issued. In most cases, they always issue a SW or WSW rather than a BW. And SSC, didnt they issue it for the Jan 1999 storm? Based on EC's climate page, the 1993 superstorm was only around 4-8" for us. No. January 1999 saw a Winter Storm Warning. Blizzard warnings used to have a temperature criteria that was hard to meet in southern Ontario. The did away with that a few years ago so we may see them slightly more frequently. There is no snowfall threshold for a blizzard warning. If the winds are strong enough and the visibility is low enough, you can have a blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 The EURO was still good for us. Meh. It drops about 6" followed by temps around -5; we miss out on the brunt of the snow and cold. Albeit better than nothing, it's always a bit agonizing when everyone else gets more of what you want! Beggars can't be chooser, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 http://www.ec.gc.ca/meteo-weather/default.asp?n=D9553AB5-1#blizzard Well Environment Canada has a certain criteria for Blizzard warnings to be issued. In most cases, they always issue a SW or WSW rather than a BW. And SSC, didnt they issue it for the Jan 1999 storm? Based on EC's climate page, the 1993 superstorm was only around 4-8" for us. I don't think snowfall matters for a BW. IIRC, if you have major blowing or drifting snow, it can be a blizzard, even without any new precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 985 mb over central/eastern Lake Ontario at 96 hours...12z Euro. yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 No. January 1999 saw a Winter Storm Warning. Blizzard warnings used to have a temperature criteria that was hard to meet in southern Ontario. The did away with that a few years ago so we may see them slightly more frequently. There is no snowfall threshold for a blizzard warning. If the winds are strong enough and the visibility is low enough, you can have a blizzard. Would be interesting to look at how often NWS blizzard warning criteria has been met in the GTA vs. Environment Canada blizzard criteria. Although this is likely way too much work to synthesize. Anyone still on vacation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Would be interesting to look at how often NWS blizzard warning criteria has been met in the GTA vs. Environment Canada blizzard criteria. Although this is likely way too much work to synthesize. Anyone still on vacation? I'm happier with the higher standard. To me, a "blizzard" is the most severe type of storm. I imagine massive white out conditions. Essentially a big rain storm but with snow. I wouldn't even consider the Feb 2013 storm a blizzard. It seemed like a snowstorm to me, but the winds were not crazy and I didn't see any white out conditions like you see in snow squalls. Essentially, a snow squall to me is a mini blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Would be interesting to look at how often NWS blizzard warning criteria has been met in the GTA vs. Environment Canada blizzard criteria. Although this is likely way too much work to synthesize. Anyone still on vacation? If the NWS forecasted for us, we'd have had 2-3 blizzard warnings over the last 10-15 years. Their criteria isn't that much different but they bend the rules more. Basically if you're going to see widespread 12-16" with some wind they'll hoist one. Sort of a de facto higher tiered snowfall warning to convey to the public it isn't your run of the mill 6"er. And I might get an extended vacation if the EURO verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 This one should be a miss southeast here as it looks now. Don't see it coming this far NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Euro is huge for here, DTX already has 3-5" in the zones for Saturday Night/Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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