LizardMafia Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Nice AFD from IND about this weekend MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ALONG WITH BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES ARELOOMING LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK RESPECTIVELY AS APOLAR JET DIVES SOUTHEAST CARVING OUT A SHARP NEGATIVELY TILTEDUPPER TROUGH SOUTH OF A STRONG CANADIAN VORTEX. THIS POLAR JET ISEXPECTED TO PHASE WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET LATE THIS WEEKENDRESULTING IN SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING OF A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE OHIOVALLEY AND EASTERN STATES. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENTOPERATIONAL MODEL WITH PLENTY OF SUPPORT FROM MOST OF THE MODELSEXCEPT THE 00Z GFS AND GFS. THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY WEAKERAND QUICKER WITH THE SURFACE LOW. 00Z REGIONAL ALLBLEND FAVORS THEECMWF CONSISTENCY AND SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE EXPECTEDEVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AND BRUTAL COLD TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW.SO...WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE REGIONAL ALLBLEND WITH ONLY A TWEAKHERE OR THERE.MODELS ARE IN GOOD CONSISTENCY WITH INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCESESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z SUNDAY. MODELS ALSO ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITHTHE HIGHEST QPF THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIESWHICH LOOKS REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE FORECASTED TRACK OF THESURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY. OF COURSE ANY CHANGE IN THELOW TRACK WOULD RESULT IN A CHANGE IN THE AXIS OF HEAVYPRECIPITATION. BUFKIT...SUGGESTS ALL THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BESNOW EVEN IN THE SOUTH...HOWEVER A NORTHWARD TREND IN THE LOW TRACKCOULD RESULT IN SOME RAIN MIXING IN ACROSS OUR SOUTH. FOR NOWTHOUGH...WILL GO WITH ALL SNOW. WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE DUE TOTHE EXCELLENT CONSISTENCY OF THE FAVORED ECMWF. ALL EXTENDED MODELSHAVE HIGH 24 HOUR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE STRONGERECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS HAVE 8 TO 10 INCHES OF STORM TOTALSNOWFALL AND EVEN THE WEAKER GFS HAS 6 TO 8 ENDING 12 MONDAY.IN ADDITION TO THE SNOWFALL...WINDS IN BETWEEN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSUREACROSS THE PLAINS AND THE STRENGTHENING DEPARTING LOW PRESSURESYSTEM WILL BRING IN BREEZY AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS LATE SUNDAYINTO MONDAY NIGHT. WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AROUND ZERO ALONGAND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE BREEZYCONDITIONS...THE WIND CHILL COULD FALL BELOW NEGATIVE 30 DEGREES ANDAPPROACH NEGATIVE 40 DEGREES MONDAY NIGHT. BESIDES THE DANGEROUSLYLOW WIND CHILLS...THE WINDS COULD ALSO CAUSE HAVOC ON THE ROADWAYSWITH SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING. SHOULD SEE SOME REPRIEVE BYWEDNESDAY AS THE ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST COAST RESULTING INBREEZY SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. AGAIN...WILL STICKWITH THE REGIONAL ALLBLEND TEMPERATURES. THE ALLBLEND HAS THECOLDEST TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT TO NEGATIVE 13 DEGREES ACROSS OURNORTH. THE LAST TIME THE INDIANAPOLIS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WAS ASCOLD AS NEGATIVE 10 DEGREES WAS JANUARY 16 2009 AND LAST TIME IT WASNEGATIVE 15 DEGREES OR BELOW WAS JANUARY 21 1994 TO PUT APERSPECTIVE ON THINGS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I don't know if it helps or hurts LAF's chances...but I'll be out of town for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I don't know if it helps or hurts LAF's chances...but I'll be out of town for this one. How can you go out of town at a time like this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I don't know if it helps or hurts LAF's chances...but I'll be out of town for this one. Lock it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 How can you go out of town at a time like this? Funeral. But, it's just up to IKK. They may be in the game for some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 don't usually speculate much, but I can see a scenario in the GL's of widespread blizzard like conditions, with a low visibility type snow falling, very strong winds along with the deep snow area wide. Dangerous Winter conditions on the horizon!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Funeral. But, it's just up to IKK. They may be in the game for some snow. wagons north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 The nam is a swing and a miss. But seriously I can't see how there isn't a bomb on the nam form my armature eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 South and weaker goes the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 12z GGEM is a crusher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Haha, same time as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 12z GGEM is a crusher. Track looks very close to what the 00z run had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Holy GGEM. For one time I hope that model nails it for you guys. If something like that did materialize I cant even imagine the wind chills we could have back here to the west on sunday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I like where I am sitting at this stage of the game. Some legit potential of the lime green to orange boxes on this one for some in the subforum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 expect the euro to come North. OMG So GFS 8-9" GEM 12-16" Ukmet 5-6" in Six hours with a lot more to go. Hard to believe it's only 2.5 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Still a bit uncomfortable with this but right now I'm leaning toward something in the 8-12" range here. Obviously that would be in trouble if a farther southeast track occurs. Despite some track uncertainty, in general, ratios should improve a bit as the storm goes on as colder air comes in but there will be time to sort that out later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Still a bit uncomfortable with this but right now I'm leaning toward something in the 8-12" range here. Obviously that would be in trouble if a farther southeast track occurs. Despite some track uncertainty, in general, ratios should improve a bit as the storm goes on as colder air comes in but there will be time to sort that out later. I'm riding the Canadian for snow and extreme temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I would take any model with a grain of salt at this point. I will guess that the models wont have a good handle on this until this current storm moves out. Do the models even have an idea of the magnitude of the pv coming south yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 12z GGEM a big hit for most of Indiana and Northern and Central Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 GRR's favorite model, the 0z FIM Zeus, was pretty much a spread the wealth hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 GGEM Ah crap, not again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 GGEM That's got current storm taint on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Ah crap, not again. lol, I said the same thing. I guess I would rather be on the NW side then seeing the low track over our heads at this point. I have read from a few AFD's that the euro does the best in speed of fronts and phasing situations so we shall see. Euro did pretty bad qpf wise around these parts north of Detroit with the current system so who knows. Snow breeds snow! Indy has been on a roll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 You guys gotta remember that those are 10:1 maps, so totals could be misleading especially with northern extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 In NAVGEM we trust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 That's got current storm taint on it. Yeah I know. I figured you get the general back part of the storm to give everyone an idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 In NAVGEM we trust f96.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.