LizardMafia Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Looks perfect to me. Just show to everyone where the EURO is showing snow. Amounts are up in the air. 12zEURO_010114.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I love watching the 500 mb loop of the '78 blizzard. What a monster phase...just a thing of beauty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 ILX already has 5.9" in hourly grids Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Looks like a textbook app runner for Sunday-Monday. Will be interesting, with that major arctic high diving behind we may be looking at a blizzard for the Lower GL area as the pressure gradient is pretty impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Big hit for IL/IN/OH on the GFS 6-10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 January 18, 1994 I remember that storm well. I remember it snowed heavily the night of the 16th-17th. The L.A. earthquake was the morning of the 17th. Also remember the cold blast that followed. I couldn't open my front door as the lock was frozen. Had to wait for my Dad to get home to unlock it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 0z GFS shifts NW. A solid 5-6" for YYZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I remember that storm well. I remember it snowed heavily the night of the 16th-17th. The L.A. earthquake was the morning of the 17th. Also remember the cold blast that followed. I couldn't open my front door as the lock was frozen. Had to wait for my Dad to get home to unlock it.I remember Environment Canada only calling for 2-3" for Toronto on that Sunday afternoon (16th). Later that evening, while it was snowing, EC had to upgrade its amounts and issue a Snow Advisory or Winter Weather Advisory (they don't issue those anymore).Tonight's 00z GFS took a big step towards the GGEM and Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 0z GFS shifts NW. A solid 5-6" for YYZ. The track of the actual low is not that different. Just more QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 The track of the actual low is not that different. Just more QPF. The shift west is pretty significant. SLP at 09z Monday shifted from near BOS to ALB in 1 run. PV lobe digging more which is in line with trends observed on the euro... models headed towards more phasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I remember Environment Canada only calling for 2-3" for Toronto on that Sunday afternoon (16th). Later that evening, while it was snowing, EC had to upgrade its amounts and issue a Snow Advisory or Winter Weather Advisory (they don't issue those anymore). Tonight's 00z GFS took a big step towards the GGEM and Euro. The morning of the 16th was one of the coldest mornings ever recorded at YYZ. -31 Celsius without the wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 0z GFS shifts NW. A solid 5-6" for YYZ. If this verifies and is followed by a bitter arctic air mass, JB may have been on the ball last week when he said the pattern for the week of the 6th was a close parallel to mid January 1994. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Wouldn't be surprised at all if we end up needing a warning for at least part of the LOT CWA Sent from my SCH-I535 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I remember Environment Canada only calling for 2-3" for Toronto on that Sunday afternoon (16th). Later that evening, while it was snowing, EC had to upgrade its amounts and issue a Snow Advisory or Winter Weather Advisory (they don't issue those anymore). Tonight's 00z GFS took a big step towards the GGEM and Euro. Cool info. I didn't know Ontario region ever issued advisories. Wish they still did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I don't see this thing going to far north with the strength of the PV but no doubt this looks like a good hit for many people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Wouldn't be surprised at all if we end up needing a warning for at least part of the LOT CWA Sent from my SCH-I535 You think the storm is going to nudge itself that far west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 The shift west is pretty significant. SLP at 09z Monday shifted from near BOS to ALB in 1 run. PV lobe digging more which is in line with trends observed on the euro... models headed towards more phasing. It has slowly emerged from its slumber and showcased what models have been painting in recent days. Now this could go many ways. 1) If the PV doesnt dig as deeply and we dont see any phase, the S/W wave will just drift off to Sea or merge with the weak frontal boundary. 2) A partial phase similar to what the GGEM depicted earlier and this current GFS run, would translate to moderate snows across the region. 3) If we see a full blown phase like what the Euro showed for about 3-4 runs in a row like 2 days ago, then its worth discussing as it could be something big. I personally feel the models are showing too much WAA moving up north as odds are against it. Timing is key with this. Behind it, were going to witness a nation wide cold outbreak as the PV slips south. Coldest air mass in years for many regions. Wouldn't be surprised if YYZ drops to -24 to -28C at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Wouldn't be surprised at all if we end up needing a warning for at least part of the LOT CWA Sent from my SCH-I535 Another system with a really sharp cutoff...makes your jobs fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Wouldn't be surprised at all if we end up needing a warning for at least part of the LOT CWA Sent from my SCH-I535 Another system with a really sharp cutoff...makes your jobs fun. Just as fun as today's event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Another system with a really sharp cutoff...makes your jobs fun. Beyond that, it could be another snow grinder for some areas if it doesn't fully phase soon enough (see all the hoopla with GRR over them not issuing a WWA for the current system). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 0z GEM shifts east, slower and stronger. More interaction between the arctic and polar disturbances, albeit timing is later. Eastern apps runner FTW. 00_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_144.jpg I think that's yesterday's 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Cool info. I didn't know Ontario region ever issued advisories. Wish they still did. They did until 1996 or 1997. And I agree, they shouldn't have stopped doing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Wouldn't be surprised at all if we end up needing a warning for at least part of the LOT CWA Sent from my SCH-I535 You think the storm is going to nudge itself that far west? Well not a guarantee but the 12z Euro was part of the way there with stronger ridging ahead and earlier negative tilt of the trough. Taken verbatim, the Euro would likely be a warning event for the southeast 1/3 of the cwa. The forecaster who wrote the extended portion of the AFD this morning or yesterday morning is concerned about a farther west track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I don't see this thing going to far north with the strength of the PV but no doubt this looks like a good hit for many people. I think the position of that is key. If it's farther west and there's an earlier phase with the wave swinging around it, then this has the potential to blow up into something big and track farther west. Whether that happens or whether there's a later phase remains to be seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I think that's yesterday's 0z run. Yes it is. New GGEM has 998mb low around Syracuse. Looks like a solid hit here and back through IN/IL/OH but don't quote me as those GGEM black and white charts are hard to read lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I think that's yesterday's 0z run. Ya, your right... model has updated through hour 48 thus far on the EC site. Post deleted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Yes it is. New GGEM has 998mb low around Syracuse. Looks like a solid hit here and back through IN/IL/OH but don't quote me as those GGEM black and white charts are hard to read lol. Yup, looks like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I don't see this thing going to far north with the strength of the PV but no doubt this looks like a good hit for many people. I could, the PV is strong but it further West than the current system, if the southern stream slows just a hair, this could really phase into a strong system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Yes it is. New GGEM has 998mb low around Syracuse. Looks like a solid hit here and back through IN/IL/OH but don't quote me as those GGEM black and white charts are hard to read lol. Yeah its a pretty good hit across many regions just south of SE Michigan through the Ohio Valley, parts of IL and SONT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Yeah its a pretty good hit across many regions just south of SE Michigan through the Ohio Valley, parts of IL and SONT. 0z GEM a solid 0.6-0.7" of QPF for YYZ. Models in pretty good agreement on amounts considering how far out we are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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