Chicago WX Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Its all good. It does look like a model output issue. You can use the Composite Overlays on Plymouth to get UK data, instead of those junky ones on the Contoured Maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Where is the 18Z Korean while we're at it? found a site that has the 21z Brazilian. The OP run kinda sucks for us but the ensemble mean is an AppRunner! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 First call... 11.7" IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Regardless of someone's preferred outcome, this is a pretty sweet image. Images like that have been reserved for long range modeling....not H72....beautiful flu hit me last afternoon...I look forward to reading everyone's input at various moments through out the night from my phone in bed tonight... cheers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 It's also old at H5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 The UKMET thing grows more confusing. Here is the 12z run valid at 72 hours which looks exactly like the 72 hour map that Tim posted from the supposed 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 maybe they stopped running the ukmet at 06z and 18z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Haven't had much time the last few days to monitor the weather forecasting much. Finally got the issues resolved with equipment and made out good even with the drawbacks of the cold and no starts. Just in time with the 1.3" taking a run at DTX with 13/14:1 ratios. Very impressive and nearing the dangerous category with the 10" or so of powder sitting on the ground already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 3, 2014 Author Share Posted January 3, 2014 The UKMET thing grows more confusing. Here is the 12z run valid at 72 hours which looks exactly like the 72 hour map that Tim posted from the supposed 18z run. GZ_D5_PN_072_0000.gif It's just locked into that scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Fair enough, we'll toss it then. No big deal. Anyways, 15z plumes mean snowfall for Indiana locales. FWA: 9.4" (17.0" high, 2.9" low) HUF: 10.0" (19.3" high, 2.6" low) IND: 9.6" (16.7" high, 2.5" low) LAF: 11.0" (20.7" high, 3.0" low) MIE: 9.2" (17.6" high, 2.9" low) OKK: 10.5" (17.7" high, 3.5" low) SBN: 13.2" (22.7" high, 4.1" low) VPZ: 12.4" (21.5" high, 5.1" low) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 RAP/RUC suckiness aside, this thing is getting close enough that you have to think we'll start getting some short term clues if any kind of a NW trend is more than 2nd tier model illusions. FWlittleIW the 18z GEFS are again NW of the OP but nothing is particularly impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 One of the cool things about this storm is the rapid temp drop behind it. Have a chance to be around 15 below zero maybe 6 hours after the snow stops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 [tim]chuck 'em deep[/tim] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 One of the cool things about this storm is the rapid temp drop behind it. Have a chance to be around 15 below zero maybe 6 hours after the snow stops. More fun with plumes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 [tim]chuck 'em deep[/tim] I need to find my galoshes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 [tim]chuck 'em deep[/tim] Lock it in!!!! Seriously I think we get 1-3 if things fall in place. MT Geos might have to sit this one out!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Here's some perspective for you on this storm for the Toledo area. Only twice in history has Toledo received 5"+ snows within a span of four days, it has never seen 8"+ snows within that span. These snow drifts, especially here in the rural areas will easily be at 6'+ honestly, my garbage cans are already buried from the last event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 One looks like Uncle Ukie. The other two don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 More fun with plumes! Screen Shot 2014-01-03 at 6.24.06 PM.png One more comment about it...the synoptic setup is different but the big snow and rapid post-storm temp drop is a bit reminiscent of January 11-12, 1918. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Fair enough, we'll toss it then. No big deal. Anyways, 15z plumes mean snowfall for Indiana locales. FWA: 9.4" (17.0" high, 2.9" low) HUF: 10.0" (19.3" high, 2.6" low) IND: 9.6" (16.7" high, 2.5" low) LAF: 11.0" (20.7" high, 3.0" low) MIE: 9.2" (17.6" high, 2.9" low) OKK: 10.5" (17.7" high, 3.5" low) SBN: 13.2" (22.7" high, 4.1" low) VPZ: 12.4" (21.5" high, 5.1" low) Give me whatever it's smoking... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Wetter than the 9z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Skilling 3-6 more south less north. Mentioned that there are models that suggest alot more then that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Here's some perspective for you on this storm for the Toledo area. Only twice in history has Toledo received 5"+ snows within a span of four days, it has never seen 8"+ snows within that span. These snow drifts, especially here in the rural areas will easily be at 6'+ honestly, my garbage cans are already buried from the last event Cool stat. Closest back-to-back 6"+ storms for Indianapolis. Some are stretching out to 10 days, but... Dec 26, 1895: 9.5" Dec 30, 1895: 10.0" Mar 11, 1906: 7.1" Mar 19-20, 1906: 12.3" Feb 16-17, 1910: 16.1" Feb 21-22, 1910: 10.3" Jan 18-19, 1915: 7.2" Jan 22-23, 1915: 7.4" Jan 11-12, 1918: 8.8" Jan 14-15, 1918: 8.0" Dec 18-20, 1973: 13.0" Dec 28-30, 1973: 11.8" Jan 16-17, 1978: 7.0" Jan 25-27, 1978: 15.5" Jan 30-31, 1982: 8.1" Feb 3, 1982: 6.5" Feb 8-9, 1982: 6.0" Feb 5-6, 2010: 6.1" Feb 15-16, 2010: 6.4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Give me whatever it's smoking... Looks sober to me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Looks sober to me... SREF can be shaky in outer periods but it's getting into wheelhouse range. Just want it to hold another run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 SREF can be shaky in outer periods but it's getting into wheelhouse range. Just want it to hold another run. Yeah...I think the only takeaway is for the mean to hold steady or increase as we get closer. And then lop off 2" for reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Looks sober to me... Haha. In all reality, 10-12" looks very attainable for you guys down there. I just don't see it up here on the NW fringes. I'm still thinking 4-6". Lake effect/enhancement certainly could certainly throw a wrench into my call. I haven't looked into it too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Haha. In all reality, 10-12" looks very attainable for you guys down there. I just don't see it up here on the NW fringes. I'm still thinking 4-6". Lake effect/enhancement certainly could certainly throw a wrench into my call. I haven't looked into it too much. I think you'll do fine up there. 6"+ certainly on the table IMO. Or...you can travel down to here and we'll snowstorm drink at Harry's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Skilling just showed 2 models for ORD: 7.1" RPM 3.2" Another unnamed model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Skilling just showed 2 models for ORD: 7.1" RPM 3.2" Another unnamed model was just going to post that said other model was the national weather service model. Has the RPM ever been right?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.