snowstormcanuck Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 the 12z Euro does have snow for Detroit and also down to central OH. Seems to indicate a changeover, or perhaps even an ice storm situation. Sounds like it's still in the more westerly GGEM camp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 cancel that. I was looking at the December 31 ECMWF on Wunderground.com. I was confused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 12z Euro goes from 1010mb in Arkansas to 992mb near BUF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Sounds like it's still in the more westerly GGEM camp. Looks like a good hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Looks like a good hit. EURO's been pretty consistent but we've heard that story before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 cancel that. I was looking at the December 31 ECMWF on Wunderground.com. I was confused. 2nd run @ wunderground that's not updating. They have a few frames from the 12z July 22/13 run though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 EURO's been pretty consistent but we've heard that story before. Yep, 12z euro has 0.9-1.0" of QPF for YYZ with two waves moving through. First half is likely 8:1 ratio slop with surface temps hovering just above 0c, although 850's are solidly below 0c. 0z ensemble mean was further east, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Euro continues to trend stronger with the second lobe rounding the PV centre, which helps shift the southern vort max southwards. It also looks more progressive with the initial piece of AJ energy. Wouldn't be surprised to see track shift SE slightly if trends continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Euro continues to trend stronger with the second lobe rounding the PV centre, which helps shift the southern vort max southwards. It also looks more progressive with the initial piece of AJ energy. Wouldn't be surprised to see track shift SE slightly if trends continue. The UK/ GGEM/NAVGEM track would be golden for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Don't know if posted but DTX thinks Euro is outlier.. ONE FINAL THOUGHT...EURO CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE HEAVY SNOW FOR THEAREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP THROUGH OHIO.CURRENT RUNS OF OTHER MODELS (00Z GFS/GEM) ARE FURTHER SOUTH ANDEAST WITH THIS FEATURE BUT HAVE SHOWN IT ON OCCASION OVER THE PASTSEVERAL DAYS. THESE OTHER MODELS HAVE ALSO COME TO A BETTERCONSENSUS WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAYNIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY AND WITH THE ARRIVAL OF UPSTREAM ENERGY INTOCANADA...BOTH OF WHICH WILL BE MAJOR PLAYERS IN THIS POTENTIAL NEXTSTORM TRACK. EURO MODEL HAS BEEN A BIT OF AN OUTLIER WITH THEHANDLING OF ENERGY FROM THE POLAR VORTEX OVER THE PAST FEWDAYS...DIGGING IT FURTHER SOUTH...AND HAS RECENTLY STARTED SHOWINGMORE VARIATION WITH HOW IT HANDLES THIS ENERGY. FORECAST THEREFOREFAVORS THE SOLUTIONS OF THE GFS/GEM FOR NOW (STORM MISSING US) BUTTHE POTENTIAL WILL CERTAINLY BEAR WATCHING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Don't know if posted but DTX thinks Euro is outlier.. ONE FINAL THOUGHT...EURO CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE HEAVY SNOW FOR THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP THROUGH OHIO. CURRENT RUNS OF OTHER MODELS (00Z GFS/GEM) ARE FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH THIS FEATURE BUT HAVE SHOWN IT ON OCCASION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THESE OTHER MODELS HAVE ALSO COME TO A BETTER CONSENSUS WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY AND WITH THE ARRIVAL OF UPSTREAM ENERGY INTO CANADA...BOTH OF WHICH WILL BE MAJOR PLAYERS IN THIS POTENTIAL NEXT STORM TRACK. EURO MODEL HAS BEEN A BIT OF AN OUTLIER WITH THE HANDLING OF ENERGY FROM THE POLAR VORTEX OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...DIGGING IT FURTHER SOUTH...AND HAS RECENTLY STARTED SHOWING MORE VARIATION WITH HOW IT HANDLES THIS ENERGY. FORECAST THEREFORE FAVORS THE SOLUTIONS OF THE GFS/GEM FOR NOW (STORM MISSING US) BUT THE POTENTIAL WILL CERTAINLY BEAR WATCHING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 LOL Will this turn out to be like that last event when Euro was so consistent bringing 2' for us and we ended up with a buncha rain at 32.5 dgrs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Don't know if posted but DTX thinks Euro is outlier.. ONE FINAL THOUGHT...EURO CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE HEAVY SNOW FOR THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP THROUGH OHIO. CURRENT RUNS OF OTHER MODELS (00Z GFS/GEM) ARE FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH THIS FEATURE BUT HAVE SHOWN IT ON OCCASION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THESE OTHER MODELS HAVE ALSO COME TO A BETTER CONSENSUS WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY AND WITH THE ARRIVAL OF UPSTREAM ENERGY INTO CANADA...BOTH OF WHICH WILL BE MAJOR PLAYERS IN THIS POTENTIAL NEXT STORM TRACK. EURO MODEL HAS BEEN A BIT OF AN OUTLIER WITH THE HANDLING OF ENERGY FROM THE POLAR VORTEX OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...DIGGING IT FURTHER SOUTH...AND HAS RECENTLY STARTED SHOWING MORE VARIATION WITH HOW IT HANDLES THIS ENERGY. FORECAST THEREFORE FAVORS THE SOLUTIONS OF THE GFS/GEM FOR NOW (STORM MISSING US) BUT THE POTENTIAL WILL CERTAINLY BEAR WATCHING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. Considering the EURO record lately can you blame them?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Anyone have the EURO snow map??? Sorry can't afford those memberships... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michigansnowstorm Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 LOL I believe their thinking at that point this morning was before other models started showing this storm hitting us and the latest Euro still sticking with it's solution of hitting us....who knows how it will end up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Until this current system passes through I am not latching onto any solution, there is a not of moving parts with the current system that eventually will affect this system. Not to mention there is another system that will pass north of us that will have an effect on this system as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michigansnowstorm Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Until this current system passes through I am not latching onto any solution, there is a not of moving parts with the current system that eventually will affect this system. Not to mention there is another system that will pass north of us that will have an effect on this system as well. GRR thinks it needs to be watched: FXUS63 KGRR 011747 AFDGRR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 1247 PM EST WED JAN 1 2014 .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 326 AM EST WED JAN 1 2014 I SEE TWO MAJOR ISSUES WITH THIS FORECAST TIME FRAME. FIRST IS THREAT OF A WAVE TRACKING UP THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...THAT COULD BE A MAJOR SNOW STORM FOR PARTS OF OUR CWA SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE NEXT ISSUE IS THE MAJOR COLD OUTBREAK FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS IT TURN OUT THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE NORTH POLE TO MICHIGAN BY MONDAY. SO IT IS LOOKING BETTER FOR THAT -30C 850 MB TEMP AIR TO REACH LOWER MICHIGAN BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. IF THIS HAPPENS... OUR HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE ZERO FOR ANY AIR FLOW NOT OFF LAKE MICHIGAN... SO LOCATIONS LIKE BTL...JXN AND LAN MAY WELL NOT GET ABOVE ZERO TUESDAY (AS PER THE LATEST ECMWF MODEL SURFACE TEMP FORECAST). WITH THE COLD AIR COMES LAKE EFFECT SNOW... THE MOISTURE WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH GIVEN THE CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR MICHIGAN SO THERE WILL BE LAKE EFFECT. THUS I HAVE LIKELY POP MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WEST OF US-131. SINCE THE AIR IS SO COLD... SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED BUT WITH THE SMALL FLAKE SIZE THERE WOULD STILL BE LOW VISIBILITIES DUE TO BLOWING SNOW. THIS DIGGING UPPER LOW CREATES YET ANOTHER ISSUE... PHASING WITH A PACIFIC SYSTEM THAT COMES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY. THE ECMWF DOES A BETTER JOB OF PHASING THESE SYSTEM SO I RESULTS IN RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW THAT TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN TRACKING THIS SYSTEM FOR A WEEK OR SO BUT THE LOCATIONS SEEMS TO FLUCTUATE. ACTUALLY THE LATEST GFS HAS A SYSTEM TOO BUT IS A TOUGH FARTHER SOUTH... AS IS THE GEM. GIVEN THE STRAIGHT OF THE UPPER AIR SYSTEM I COULD SEE IT BEING A LITTLE SLOWER AND THAT WOULD ALLOW TIME FOR PHASING. WE WILL REALLY HAVE TO WATCH THIS ONE. IF THIS HAPPENS IT WOULD BE A MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM THAN THE ONE WE ARE FORECASTING TODAY. BOTTOM LINE... WINTER CONTINUES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Considering the EURO record lately can you blame them?? I agree with DTX tbh...Euro does not deserve a crown anymore lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I agree with DTX tbh...Euro does not deserve a crown anymore lol I've noticed this season it has been suspect in the long range. Good at picking up general trends but bad at the details. The king is dead, long live king GFS. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I think that GRR forecaster partied a bit too late before writing that discussion. Time will tell how the current system sets the stage for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Giving it a C- for spelling and composition anyway, I have only the faintest idea what "straight upper system" means, not gay? And tough further south obviously touch further south, but that is tough if you live in MSN I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 GFS continues to be consistent... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Euro has been looking interesting *cough*1*hack*26*gasp*78*cough cough* Sorry, I've got a tickle in my throat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
extremewx52 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I wouldn't be so quick to write off the euro. The gfs didn' even have a Midwest snowstorm until the last run or 2. The euro has had this storm for 3 days now (at least). I agree the euro hasn't been great, but with the gfs bias of suppressing storms in the long term and then drifting nw with time, I wouldn't be surprised to see the gfs trend stronger and nw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Just show to everyone where the EURO is showing snow. Amounts are up in the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Euro continues to trend stronger with the second lobe rounding the PV centre, which helps shift the southern vort max southwards. It also looks more progressive with the initial piece of AJ energy. Wouldn't be surprised to see track shift SE slightly if trends continue. The UK/ GGEM/NAVGEM track would be golden for us. It would be amazing to get a 6" storm followed by vodka cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 IWXwx, on 01 Jan 2014 - 5:21 PM, said: Euro has been looking interesting *cough*1*hack*26*gasp*78*cough cough* Sorry, I've got a tickle in my throat. There are some similarities, but the main difference is the southern stream wave. The southern stream wave dug much further south and even closed off at 546dm in 1978. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 It would be amazing to get a 6" storm followed by vodka cold.January 18, 1994 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 To have this type of set up would be a nice reward for putting up with the last two crappy winters. Never the less someone will have a boat load on snow OTG before long.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 It would be amazing to get a 6" storm followed by vodka cold. 6"? That's not very exciting :-( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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