Snowstorms Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 18z Nam shows about 4-6" for the GTA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 SREF plumes continue to rise to the north. ORD; all but one plume above 4". http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index2.php?YMD=20140103&RT=15&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=ORD&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=8&mLAT=41.86112660379815&mLON=-86.385914453125&mTYP=roadmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 The GFS op is the farthest SE member: The CMC ens mean is a tick NW of the op as well, but on this plot it looks like a lot of the members are missing, so I'm not sure what's up with that. First of all, I already knew and even posted that the gefs were nw. Second the ggem ensemble on alan huffmans page (which I can't post since it's pay), is centered where I said, on the WV/OH border, clearly southeast of the OP which takes it thru central OH. Someone here backed me on this as well earlier....it's not like I'm pulling it out of my ass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Won't put much merit into this 18z nam run, but if GFS follows suit could mean a shift of the bullseye to my back yard and other Ohioans Getting more into sausage territory now. I don't foresee that kind of shift as the 18z shows. Maybe a bit further SE, but that's about it. I would think most of the subforum expecting decent snow should still see it. The question is still how far northwest and how far southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Getting more into sausage territory now. I don't foresee that kind of shift as the 18z shows. Maybe a bit further SE, but that's about it. I would think most of the subforum expecting decent snow should still see it. The question is still how far northwest and how far southeast. agree, and that's the point.... Posters like Hoosier are golden, they can take a shift here or there....we're riding the southern rail and need to grasp every little bit of evidence for or against a shift. If it sounds like sausage posts, so be it. But yea, that nam run was fun to look at but that's about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 SREF plumes continue to rise to the north. ORD; all but one plume above 4". http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index2.php?YMD=20140103&RT=15&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=ORD&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=8&mLAT=41.86112660379815&mLON=-86.385914453125&mTYP=roadmap Wicked spread on the SREF for DKB. 1-15" with a mean of 5.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Getting more into sausage territory now. I don't foresee that kind of shift as the 18z shows. Maybe a bit further SE, but that's about it. I would think most of the subforum expecting decent snow should still see it. The question is still how far northwest and how far southeast. IDK... IWX seemed as if they were almost for sure expecting a further NW shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 agree, and that's the point.... Posters like Hoosier are golden, they can take a shift here or there....we're riding the southern rail and need to grasp every little bit of evidence for or against a shift. If it sounds like sausage posts, so be it. But yea, that nam run was fun to look at but that's about it. the situation is really volatile for inside 48hrs...big shifts either direction wouldn't shock me. My gut says further NW is the way to go but if it whiffs and passes well south I won't be surprised. I should squeeze out at least an inch or two either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 the situation is really volatile for inside 48hrs...big shifts either direction wouldn't shock me. My gut says further NW is the way to go but if it whiffs and passes well south I won't be surprised. I should squeeze out at least an inch or two either way. I'm 50/50 (trying to be unbiased), as to whether a change results nw or se. Wouldn't bet on either. Most likely scenario I think is still a low cutting over or slightly east of Columbus. if I were a betting man, I'd put all my chips on Indianapolis for the sweetspot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Winter Storm watches hoisted in ILN just to the north and west of Columbus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 I'm 50/50 (trying to be unbiased), as to whether a change results nw or se. Wouldn't bet on either. Most likely scenario I think is still a low cutting over or slightly east of Columbus. Yeah I'm at about a 60/40 split NW/SE but realistically nobody knows for sure. Hopefully when we get full sampling tonight things will be clearer. Ton of outcomes still on the table at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 I'm 50/50 (trying to be unbiased), as to whether a change results nw or se. Wouldn't bet on either. Most likely scenario I think is still a low cutting over or slightly east of Columbus. HPC agrees I think it goes a little further west but wouldn't bet my life on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Interesting, ILN has no mention of a mix or rain in the Columbus pinpoint forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 IWX said it perfectly, the 18z NAM is having a hard time grasping basic meteorological concepts, I wouldn't give it a single bit of weight at this junction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 All the SREF's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Getting more into sausage territory now. I don't foresee that kind of shift as the 18z shows. Maybe a bit further SE, but that's about it. I would think most of the subforum expecting decent snow should still see it. The question is still how far northwest and how far southeast. Didn't say I was buying such a dramatic SE shift. Being farther west around Dayton, I already sit better than posters in the Columbus area at seeing decent snow. With that being said, even the slightest shift right now either way dictates whether west OH sees heavy snow or a slop show IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Interesting, ILN has no mention of a mix or rain in the Columbus pinpoint forecast. It does in the zones, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Here are the 18z RAP/NAM compared valid 12z tomorrow..pretty drastic for an 18hr fcst. http://i.picasion.com/pic76/0c1929dca700dc81d70a3aee9a34e517.gif That rap looks like Uncle Ukie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Calling for 6-10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Not sure if you guys noticed but LMK and PAH went ahead and issued Winter Storm Watches for a lot of their coverage area. Granted if we get four inches or more it's a major winter storm down here. Here's what LMK thinks: SIGNIFICANT SNOW POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOWS TO PARTS OF THE OHIOVALLEY ON SUNDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR HEAVY SNOW WILL BE ACROSSSOUTHERN INDIANA. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW QUICKLYTHE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW WILL OCCUR...WHICH COULD ALLOW FORSIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN PARTS OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY.INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>033-061-070-040300-/O.NEW.KLMK.WS.A.0001.140105T1100Z-140106T0500Z/ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-BUTLER KY-LOGAN KY-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...JASPER...MARENGO...TELL CITY...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY...JEFFERSONVILLE...HAWESVILLE...HARDINSBURG...BRANDENBURG...BEAVER DAM...LEITCHFIELD...ELIZABETHTOWN...FORT KNOX...MOUNT WASHINGTON...SHEPHERDSVILLE...LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE...BEDFORD...NEW CASTLE...MORGANTOWN...RUSSELLVILLE158 PM EST FRI JAN 3 2014 /1258 PM CST FRI JAN 3 2014/...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGHSUNDAY EVENING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGHSUNDAY EVENING.* TIMING: PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN BEFORE DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY. EXPECT ALL SNOW IN SOUTHERN INDIANA...WITH A PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION LIKELY ON SUNDAY MORNING IN CENTRAL KENTUCKY. SNOW WILL FALL HEAVILY AT TIMES ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEN TAPER OFF SUNDAY EVENING.* MAIN IMPACT: SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN INDIANA...WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE NEAR INTERSTATE 71 AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 65 IN CENTRAL KENTUCKY.* OTHER IMPACTS: HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE AGGRAVATED BY RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. SLICK ROADWAYS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY DURING THE HEAVY BANDS OF SNOW. AS THE SNOW ENDS SUNDAY EVENING...WIND CHILL READINGS WILL DROP BELOW ZERO.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANTSNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Good write up from LOT, will hold off on WWA but mentioned 3-6" amounts north of current WSW area and also betting on good fronto snows as well ATTENTION THEN QUICKLY TURNS TO LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAYS SYSTEM. THE NEW 12 UTC GLOBAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT A COLD FRONT...EMANATING FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM SURFACE LOW...WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE A DECENT BAND A FRONTOGENESIS...WHICH APPEARS TO COUPLE WITH THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY 120-130 KT JET ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE EMERGING LARGER SCALE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. ALL IN ALL THIS ANA TYPE COLD FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN A BAND OF MODERATE SNOW RIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. IT APPEARS THE COLDER AIR MASS WILL ALLOW FOR A DECENTLY DEEP DGZ...LIKELY IN EXCESS OF 50 TO 100 MB IN DEPTH. THIS COMBINED WITH DECENT FORCING WITHIN THIS LAYER SHOULD SUPPORT SOME DECENT SNOW RATIOS...POSSIBLY AROUND A 15 TO 16 TO 1 RATIO. THE MAIN SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE...SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE OZARKS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...AND THIS SHOULD DRIVE AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW FROM EASTERN TEXAS...NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...ALONG THE FRONT BOUNDARY...MENTIONED ABOVE. IT APPEARS THE OVERALL TRACK OF THE 850 MB LOW WILL BE SOMEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND INTO INDIANA BY LATE SUNDAY. OVERALL...THIS SHOULD FAVOR A DEFORMATION BAND OF SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF MY AREA THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. WITHIN THIS AREA...IT APPEARS THAT PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW ARE PROBABLE ACROSS THE CURRENT WATCH AREA ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF MY AREA. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE REGION WHERE THE BEST STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL CONSIDER WITH THE BEST FRONTOGENESIS WITHIN THE DEFORMATION BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW TRACK. IN THESE AREAS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BY LATE SUNDAY COULD BE APPROACHING 10 INCHES. SNOW AMOUNTS APPEAR THAT THEY WILL TAPPER OFF QUICKLY FROM THE CHICAGO AREA NORTH AND WESTWARD. IN AND AROUND THE CHICAGO AREA...POSSIBLY A COUNTY OR TWO NORTHWARD OF THE CURRENT WATCH...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR SNOW AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES. HOWEVER...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL TAPPER OFF TO ONLY AROUND AND 1 INCH ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS. IF THE SYSTEM TRACKS A BIT FARTHER NORTHWEST...WHICH IS POSSIBLE...SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS IN EXCEEDS OF 6 INCHES COULD BE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE CHICAGO AREA. THE MAIN SNOW SHOULD ABATE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE DEEP COLD MOVING ACROSS THE LAKE IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN INDIANA INTO MONDAY BEFORE THE MAIN FLOW SHIFTS MORE WESTERLY. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS. GIVEN THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER HEADLINE FOR TONIGHT...I WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A SECOND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE CHICAGO AREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 GFS going to wagon SE too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 18Z RGEM NW of and stronger than the 18Z GFS and NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 I still am amazed how much the 18Z is discussed. I has been well documented as the least accurate run out of the 4 daily runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 I still am amazed how much the 18Z is discussed. I has been well documented as the least accurate run out of the 4 daily runs. That is NOT the case anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Looks like the RGEM goes 998mb over Cincy. It's a start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Yeah to say that full sampling can't come quick enough is an understatement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 RGEM 42, 48 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 18Z RGEM NW of and stronger than the 18Z GFS and NAM 3295_100.gif That looks like a somewhat tamer version of the UKMET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 GFS going to wagon SE too. Actually the low tracked essentially over the same path, we'll see what the ensembles show but that was the furthest southeast track compared to the 12z GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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