Hoosier Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 I gotta side with the Ohio folks on this one...they're pretty much keeping it real. Hoping for a certain outcome is not the same as wishcasting. Anyway, accusing people of wishcasting is kinda like lighting a fuse so let's move on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 This afternoon's AFD's should be pretty interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Ohio folks aren't the source of the wishcasting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 I'm going with 7-14" for semi Like that means anything. lol Well DTX has me down for 7-15" on their point and click. 1-3 Saturday night and 6-12" on Sunday. Not sure if I should be happy to be in the bullseye this far out considering I've fared better being on the fringes this winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mempho Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Uh yeah not huge at all. Maybe it won't pop off. But it's a step from going nuclear now. It may not happen. But to say there aren't big changes at work would be dead wrong sorry. Gotta agree with you. It looks close. I actually was checking this thread to see if anyone else was seeing the potential here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Sampling guru Gilbertfly, how are the models sampling-wise right now? 00Z runs should have the full picture? (Or anyone else who wants to chime in) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 I don't have a dog in this fight. I can only hope for some high ratio lake snow and wind, but some of the wish casting going on in 'dis damn place is almost sad to see. Ohio sooooo deserves this one but so does the Laf crew. The track lately definitely hasn't been ideal for Northern Michigan especially for LES. Our clock is ticking for heavy LES events before Lake Mich turns into a tundra. I am glad that the southern areas are getting some decent action, been a while for them and much over due. Looks like another decent system next week for the southern lower lakes as well, maybe so other areas can get a little action as well. We should get some LES on the back side, but it does appear to be to cold (hard to believe) for a good dumping. Going to be a nightmare driving to work Monday and Tuesday me thinks with all the wind and snow powder flying around. This is the drawback to having such a good opening for winter, now dealing with the downside of all this cold. Plenty of time left though, although I like most are greeting a little sick of the cold, especially after having some frozen water pipes this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 SREF plume mean for: LAF: 9.3" GYY: 10.2" CMI: 9.1" IND: 9.3" ORD: 8.5" STL: 6.3" DAY: 4.2" CMH: 2.4" FWA: 8.1" DTW: 10.8" BTL: 7.5" CLE: 4.1" YYZ: 4.4" BUF: 4.6" and rising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Gotta agree with you. It looks close. I actually was checking this thread to see if anyone else was seeing the potential here. Funny that I am the one wish-casting though. The PV being a bit stronger and pressing harder to the SE has prevented the bomb going off so far. Or it would already be that way. It may not happen. But to say the ncep models are not racing towards the GEM/Ukie/Euro is crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 when I say "deserve", I'm meaning who I'd really like to see get a whopper, not something owed. Areas that don't see many 6" ers imo "deserve" to see a damn good snow! To be fair, 2011-2012 has been the only really terrible winter here the last 6-7 years. Normal Columbus Snowfall: 28.8" 2012-2013: 41.2" 2011-2012: 12.2" 2010-2011: 28.7" 2009-2010: 50.6" 2008-2009: 23.2" 2007-2008: 46.3" 2006-2007: 23.3" Avg: 32.2" Snows close to or over 6" during this period. 1. March 7-8, 2008: 20.5" 2. February 15-16, 2010: 10.4" 3. February 5-6, 2010: 9.9" 4. January 27-28, 2009: 7.4" 5. March 5-6, 2013: 7.0" 6. February 13-14, 2007: 6.2" 7. December 29, 2012: 5.9" 8. January 20, 2011: 5.7" 9. January 14, 2009: 5.6" So just over 1 per season, which is about average. Maybe there are others areas that have done worse than that, I don't know, but we've been doing as well as climo recently, if not better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 SREF plume mean for: LAF: 9.3" GYY: 10.2" CMI: 9.1" IND: 9.3" ORD: 8.5" STL: 6.3" DAY: 4.2" CMH: 2.4" FWA: 8.1" DTW: 10.8" BTL: 7.5" CLE: 4.1" BUF: 4.6" and rising. Impressive at ORD. What's the range there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 FWIW... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 SREF plume mean for: LAF: 9.3" GYY: 10.2" CMI: 9.1" IND: 9.3" ORD: 8.5" STL: 6.3" DAY: 4.2" CMH: 2.4" FWA: 8.1" DTW: 10.8" BTL: 7.5" CLE: 4.1" YYZ: 4.4" BUF: 4.6" and rising. wow, 8.5" for O'hare?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 The track lately definitely hasn't been ideal for Northern Michigan especially for LES. Our clock is ticking for heavy LES events before Lake Mich turns into a tundra. I am glad that the southern areas are getting some decent action, been a while for them and much over due. Looks like another decent system next week for the southern lower lakes as well, maybe so other areas can get a little action as well. We should get some LES on the back side, but it does appear to be to cold (hard to believe) for a good dumping. Going to be a nightmare driving to work Monday and Tuesday me thinks with all the wind and snow powder flying around. This is the drawback to having such a good opening for winter, now dealing with the downside of all this cold. Plenty of time left though, although I like most are greeting a little sick of the cold, especially after having some frozen water pipes this morning. I'll be the last to complain about not getting snow, but yeah, LM is locking up pretty quick, although I did talk to one met that said the storm force winds from the southwest should pile drive a lot of the ice towards the UP shore, opening the lake back up for some business.... even if at this point it would only be temporary. what we haven't had in N MI this Winter is a good system snow or a nice L Sup connected band. I had one last year that dropped 12" in 4.5 hours. Like you said tho, time is ticking but lots of Winter left. If this is your first Winter up here..... you're in for a surprise.... It's Winter til May Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Impressive at ORD. What's the range there? T-18.3". A lot of plumes above 6". I even have a mean of 5.7". SBN: 10.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Environment Canada just issued a weather statement for all of SONT south of Ottawa. http://weather.gc.ca/warnings/index_e.html?prov=son Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 We will have to wait and see how much energy is taken and absorbed by the PV. Folks along the SE side of this want a stronger lead wave and weaker 2nd wave. Folks wanting a biblical bomb want the opposite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Nice "almost all" of Indiana bulls eye on the WPC maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Sampling guru Gilbertfly, how are the models sampling-wise right now? 00Z runs should have the full picture? (Or anyone else who wants to chime in) Full sampling should be by 0z tonight or 12z Saturday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jgibbycan Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Just noticed this from EC SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 1:54 PM EST FRIDAY 3 JANUARY 2014. --------------------------------------------------------------------- SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR: =NEW= CITY OF TORONTO =NEW= WINDSOR - ESSEX - CHATHAM-KENT =NEW= SARNIA - LAMBTON =NEW= ELGIN =NEW= LONDON - MIDDLESEX =NEW= SIMCOE - DELHI - NORFOLK =NEW= DUNNVILLE - CALEDONIA - HALDIMAND =NEW= OXFORD - BRANT =NEW= NIAGARA =NEW= CITY OF HAMILTON =NEW= HALTON - PEEL =NEW= YORK - DURHAM =NEW= HURON - PERTH =NEW= WATERLOO - WELLINGTON =NEW= DUFFERIN - INNISFIL =NEW= GREY - BRUCE =NEW= BARRIE - ORILLIA - MIDLAND =NEW= BELLEVILLE - QUINTE - NORTHUMBERLAND =NEW= KINGSTON - PRINCE EDWARD =NEW= PETERBOROUGH - KAWARTHA LAKES =NEW= STIRLING - TWEED - SOUTH FRONTENAC =NEW= BANCROFT - BON ECHO PARK =NEW= BROCKVILLE - LEEDS AND GRENVILLE =NEW= CITY OF OTTAWA =NEW= GATINEAU =NEW= PRESCOTT AND RUSSELL =NEW= CORNWALL - MORRISBURG =NEW= SMITHS FALLS - LANARK - SHARBOT LAKE =NEW= PARRY SOUND - MUSKOKA =NEW= HALIBURTON =NEW= RENFREW - PEMBROKE - BARRY'S BAY =NEW= ALGONQUIN =NEW= BURK'S FALLS - BAYFIELD INLET. HEAVY SNOW OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDY AND BITTERLY COLD MONDAY WITH BLOWING SNOW AND LAKE EFFECT SNOWSQUALLS. --------------------------------------------------------------------- ==DISCUSSION== A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER OKLAHOMA SATURDAY THEN INTENSIFY AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD TO CROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER ALL REGIONS SUNDAY. THE SNOW WILL BECOME HEAVY OVER SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND OVER THE REMAINING REGIONS SUNDAY EVENING. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT SUNDAY, BUT WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY MORNING OVER EASTERN ONTARIO. THE SNOW MAY CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN OVER EASTERN ONTARIO EARLY MONDAY. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT MANY PLACES WILL SEE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 15 TO 20 CM. BEHIND THE STORM MONDAY BITTERLY COLD WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PRODUCE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. FURTHERMORE, SNOW SQUALLS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF LAKE HURON AND GEORGIAN BAY MONDAY AND PERSIST INTO MID WEEK. POOR TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO SUNDAY. ENVIRONMENT CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS EVOLVING SITUATION CLOSELY. PLEASE MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND WARNINGS FROM ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT WWW.WEATHEROFFICE.GC.CA END Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mempho Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Funny that I am the one wish-casting though. The PV being a bit stronger and pressing harder to the SE has prevented the bomb going off so far. Or it would already be that way. It may not happen. But to say the ncep models are not racing towards the GEM/Ukie/Euro is crap. I still think you might get the bomb to go off either way with a more amplified solution even if the arctic airmass is still being undermodeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 I'll be the last to complain about not getting snow, but yeah, LM is locking up pretty quick, although I did talk to one met that said the storm force winds from the southwest should pile drive a lot of the ice towards the UP shore, opening the lake back up for some business.... even if at this point it would only be temporary. what we haven't had in N MI this Winter is a good system snow or a nice L Sup connected band. I had one last year that dropped 12" in 4.5 hours. Like you said tho, time is ticking but lots of Winter left. If this is your first Winter up here..... you're in for a surprise.... It's Winter til May Yes i agree, living in a Snowbelt and complaining about snow don't really go hand in hand Yes i noticed as well we haven't had a full fledged LES outbreak with Superior taping either. I did get hit about two weeks ago with a bad ass MESO low that dropped 18" in about 8 hours which was pretty epic to see. No this isn't my first full winter in Northern Michigan, I lived near Fife Lake for about 1 1/2 years but they don';t get near the snow as farther north. Once again sorry for hijacking the storm thread, although we will see a little action from this. Might have to take the sleds down to my home town in Jackson for some riding, that area towards Detroit may approach us with snowpack depth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Full sampling should be by 0z tonight or 12z Saturday morning. It's pretty well covered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Ouch at the sref plume for YYZ. Seems odd how buf would have more when they're expecting more mixing/dry slot. Anyways it takes the NaM into account so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 SREF plume mean for: LAF: 9.3" GYY: 10.2" CMI: 9.1" IND: 9.3" ORD: 8.5" STL: 6.3" DAY: 4.2" CMH: 2.4" FWA: 8.1" DTW: 10.8" BTL: 7.5" CLE: 4.1" YYZ: 4.4" BUF: 4.6" and rising. lost most of the <1 cluster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 18z nam seems a tick slower, but no real changes so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Through 15 hours the nam is once again weaker out front and slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Nice "almost all" of Indiana bulls eye on the WPC maps. Yeah, impressive with models painting 8"+ across nearly every county in Indiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Local weather guy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 lost most of the <1 cluster Gradient is tight but I think you have a pretty good shot of getting 6+. If anything you may do a little better than ORD given your location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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