WestCoaster Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 I don't buy this latest model output. It'll shift south once there is more sampling. Don't think the models are handling this thing very well yet. I'm anticipating a similar result as the Dec 14 storm. 7" for YYZ is my call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 How does the ukie treat you? Is it to warm? I am just curious if it has that much of an effect given the antecedent airmass. ukie would be a disaster...in fact there's only a couple scenarios, (nam hires and gfs), that keep us still in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 I don't buy this latest model output. It'll shift south once there is more sampling. Don't think the models are handling this thing very well yet. I'm anticipating a similar result as the Dec 14 storm. 7" for YYZ is my call. If the models aren't handling it well then why wouldn't there be a chance for it to shift north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 I don't buy this latest model output. It'll shift south once there is more sampling. Don't think the models are handling this thing very well yet. I'm anticipating a similar result as the Dec 14 storm. 7" for YYZ is my call. I think the Dec 14th storm was warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 jma takes a track much like the euro....of course it uses nam qpf output Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 we speculate about that with every storm and quite frankly I cant think of any that suddenly showed explosive phasing in the last 48 or 60 hours outside a coastal event. There is probably just as much chance that this shears out further southeast then it suddenly becomes some monster phased storm. In fact with the strength of that incoming PV and front, there might be a slightly higher chance of the former scenario over the latter. more likely neither will occur and we're looking at a fairly final solution, give or take a wobble and a couple of millibars. now watch this morph into a 972 over indy at 00z Shut it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 The big thing that has me concerned, is the high ratios that this event entails. It will not take a lot of QPF for us to have a foot of snow with temperatures as low as they're expected to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 The 12z NAVGEM which previously looked like today's 12z UKIE shifted SE and resembles the 12z EURO track FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Slightly colder but less QPF than 24 hrs ago. Going with 5.1" for YYZ. YYZ EURO text: ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: YYZ LAT= 43.67 LON= -79.63 ELE= 568 12Z JAN03 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 © © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THKSUN 06Z 05-JAN -1.5 -6.2 1018 78 100 0.02 548 533 SUN 12Z 05-JAN -2.0 -7.6 1019 89 99 0.08 546 532 SUN 18Z 05-JAN -0.1 -7.8 1016 82 84 0.10 545 532 MON 00Z 06-JAN -0.9 -6.5 1011 92 99 0.12 541 533MON 06Z 06-JAN -1.0 -4.3 999 97 100 0.29 533 534MON 12Z 06-JAN -5.4 -9.7 1002 77 93 0.08 519 518 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 If the models aren't handling it well then why wouldn't there be a chance for it to shift north? I don't have a dog in this fight. I can only hope for some high ratio lake snow and wind, but some of the wish casting going on in 'dis damn place is almost sad to see. Ohio sooooo deserves this one but so does the Laf crew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eureka22 Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Just outside the warning area but am supposed to drive into it (Bloomington IL) at 8 AM Sunday. Hmmm that might not happen. Graphic from ILX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 I don't have a dog in this fight. I can only hope for some high ratio lake snow and wind, but some of the wish casting going on in 'dis damn place is almost sad to see. Ohio sooooo deserves this one but so does the Laf crew. some real sausage posts for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 I don't have a dog in this fight. I can only hope for some high ratio lake snow and wind, but some of the wish casting going on in 'dis damn place is almost sad to see. Ohio sooooo deserves this one but so does the Laf crew. thanks, but honestly we've done awesome this year....this would be frosting on the cake. I hate to say it but LAF probably deserves this more. I'm still fighting for it though. At this point I just want a snow cover to hold before that arctic air settles in....i'll be happy with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Laf is in a pretty good spot. The Ohio wish-casting is off the charts but I know how it is feels. So I sympathize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 From Chris Allen a Cincy Met. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 I don't have a dog in this fight. I can only hope for some high ratio lake snow and wind, but some of the wish casting going on in 'dis damn place is almost sad to see. Ohio sooooo deserves this one but so does the Laf crew. We've been on a good run here. I don't really care if there are small north or south shifts...small ones aren't going to kill me at this point. Obviously can't say the same for other areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 thanks, but honestly we've done awesome this year....this would be frosting on the cake. I hate to say it but LAF probably deserves this more. I'm still fighting for it though. At this point I just want a snow cover to hold before that arctic air settles in....i'll be happy with that. the who deserves it stuff is always annoying. relative to climo, most of the subforum is doing well. heading west into the plains things get worse. Jonger does have an impressive big dog futility streak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 LMK just went with a WSW including the Louisville metro. Thinking they like the GFS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Laf is in a pretty good spot. The Ohio wish-casting is off the charts but I know how it is feels. So I sympathize. wishcasting in ohio...who? Western Ohio, ie Dayton might be one of the big winners in all of this. Cmh not so much, but I haven't been wishcasting anything, quite the opposite just keeping it real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 the who deserves it stuff is always annoying. relative to climo, most of the subforum is doing well. heading west into the plains things get worse. Jonger does have an impressive big dog futility streak. yea I'm not a real fan of the 'deserve' statements either.... I was just responding to what he said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 some real sausage posts for sure All I can say, at least it's not torching across the region.. Definitely should be an interesting couple of days to say the least. Hopefully everyone will get some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Just outside the warning area but am supposed to drive into it (Bloomington IL) at 8 AM Sunday. Hmmm that might not happen. Graphic from ILX. looks good hourly graph has me at 8.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Looks like I might break my local streak of 26 straight months with no warning criteria snow. Me too! Giddy-up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 If I had to make a call that I was completely comfortable with, I would go 4-5" for the local area increasing rapidly to the south and east. Hopefully Ryan and Tim get annihilated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 We've been on a good run here. I don't really care if there are small north or south shifts...small ones aren't going to kill me at this point. Obviously can't say the same for other areas. I haven't seen a scenario yet that LAF isn't golden. you can't say that too often....something's gonna blow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Laf is in a pretty good spot. The Ohio wish-casting is off the charts but I know how it is feels. So I sympathize. Not one of us in Ohio is wishcasting. I didn't see the "HUGE" changes in the 12Z runs that you saw, but I don't have any illusions that my area in Ohio will be in the heaviest band of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 the who deserves it stuff is always annoying. relative to climo, most of the subforum is doing well. heading west into the plains things get worse. Jonger does have an impressive big dog futility streak. when I say "deserve", I'm meaning who I'd really like to see get a whopper, not something owed. Areas that don't see many 6" ers imo "deserve" to see a damn good snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Laf is in a pretty good spot. The Ohio wish-casting is off the charts but I know how it is feels. So I sympathize. Don't see any wishcasting. There's hoping for a SE shift, but everyone's been pretty realistic given the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Pretty high ratio potential for the duration of the event around Chicago.. snowratio.png this helps explain the high snow numbers on the SREF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Not one of us in Ohio is wishcasting. I didn't see the "HUGE" changes in the 12Z runs that you saw, but I don't have any illusions that my area in Ohio will be in the heaviest band of snow. Uh yeah not huge at all. Maybe it won't pop off. But it's a step from going nuclear now. It may not happen. But to say there aren't big changes at work would be dead wrong sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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