Chinook Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Fort Wayne Indiana, GFS forecast meteogram with surface wind and 950mb wind. I think there will be a near blizzard with perhaps wind gusts getting up to 35mph while it is snowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Interesting looking at the CIPS analogs off the 00z GFS. When you dig into the maps of the top analogs there aren't a lot that look like this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 No UKIE, that's for sure. phew thread held....looks like central AR thru southeast central OH and eventually northeast NY state at a pawltry 993. Idea of a stronger storm might be in trouble..... fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Solid 7-10" from Euro for S/E Michigan! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 > 72 hours. Alek almost on the 0.5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Solid 7-10" from Euro for S/E Michigan! I'm going with 7-14" for semi Like that means anything. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 EURO looks good here. About 6-9". Better than 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 3, 2014 Author Share Posted January 3, 2014 Ugh, just saw the GEFS. Pretty amped up. I won't bet against your call. Indeed. More have warning snows into ORD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 > 72 hours. euro4.png Alek almost on the 0.5". I'll round up NAM/hi-res/Euro all show a quality hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Looks like I might break my local streak of 26 straight months with no warning criteria snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 I'll round up NAM/hi-res/Euro all show a quality hit. NAM hires shows a great outcome for cmh.... does it have any cred? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 I'm going with 7-14" for semi Like that means anything. lol LOL... Yeah, hopefully nothing changes. You know we get the last minute changes, and nowcasting issues with dry sluts and so forth lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 I cannot wait for this storm. This storm defines our winter here in WNY. This is our last shot of Lake Effect before the lake begins to freeze. A decent synoptic hit of 4-8 inches followed by feet of Lake Effect. Cannot wait for Sunday night-Weds. =) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 NAM hires shows a great outcome for cmh.... does it have any cred? strikes and gutters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 EURO looks good here. About 6-9". Better than 00z. Seemed a bit drier..but it usually is compared to the other models. My first call is 4-6" for the GTA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 strikes and gutters I'd be cautious then, it literally shows Columbus on the eastern fringe (but included) in the heavy snow. Thinking gutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 did you call and threaten them? Lol they could sense I was going to throw a fit if they didn't warn the public about this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Seemed a bit drier..but it usually is compared to the other models. My first call is 4-6" for the GTA. I wouldn't worry about QPF right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 I wouldn't worry about QPF right now. OFC you would know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Not that it has much bearing on my back yard. So this is not a blind statement of bias. But I would be very very surprised if this is that suppressed and flat like the Euro shows with each model run showing the PV a bit West and the vort digging more. The start time has slowed 6-8 hours in two days of models outside the NAM. Which is now slowing as well. I would expect a much stronger phased solution by 00z tonight models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Seemed a bit drier..but it usually is compared to the other models. My first call is 4-6" for the GTA. euro blows on qpf...it's as bad on the low side as the nam is on the highside. Wasn't it really dry for the last storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 On another note... DTX issues a watch for 6-12" with highest totals in the south and east of the CWA. Meanwhile, CLE mentioned widespread 2-4" or 3-5" in their morning AFD. Solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Pretty high ratio potential for the duration of the event around Chicago.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Not that it has much bearing on my back yard. So this is not a blind statement of bias. But I would be very very surprised if this is that suppressed and flat like the Euro shows with each model run showing the PV a bit West and the vort digging more. The start time has slowed 6-8 hours in two days of models outside the NAM. Which is now slowing as well. I would expect a much stronger phased solution by 00z tonight models. we speculate about that with every storm and quite frankly I cant think of any that suddenly showed explosive phasing in the last 48 or 60 hours outside a coastal event. There is probably just as much chance that this shears out further southeast then it suddenly becomes some monster phased storm. In fact with the strength of that incoming PV and front, there might be a slightly higher chance of the former scenario over the latter. more likely neither will occur and we're looking at a fairly final solution, give or take a wobble and a couple of millibars. now watch this morph into a 972 over indy at 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 I'm going with the EURO/GGEM/GFS camp. Although I'm still wary of a slight NW correction. A lot of moving parts with this one and a slightly faster digging of the PV or slower movement of the southern stream s/w and this thing will explode over Lk Erie. Prelim call for YYZ: 3-6" of cement. Slightly less than the consensus to account for a slight NW jog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 euro blows on qpf...it's as bad on the low side as the nam is on the highside. Wasn't it really dry for the last storm? It usually is compared to the other models. QPF is usually an estimate of what the final outcome will be. I would be more hesitant on watching the temperatures as that would dictate the ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Overall I still like the 8-12" call for LAF from yesterday. Ratios probably starting out a hair above climo and trending toward greater than 15:1 toward the end of the storm. For selfish reasons I'm hoping the UKIE is right as it would easily be a top 5 storm here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 euro blows on qpf...it's as bad on the low side as the nam is on the highside. Wasn't it really dry for the last storm? EURO was basically bang on for QPF for the ice storm around here IIRC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 we speculate about that with every storm and quite frankly I cant think of any that suddenly showed explosive phasing in the last 48 or 60 hours outside a coastal event. There is probably just as much chance that this shears out further southeast then it suddenly becomes some monster phased storm. In fact with the strength of that incoming PV and front, there might be a slightly higher chance of the former scenario over the latter. more likely neither will occur and we're looking at a fairly final solution, give or take a wobble and a couple of millibars. now watch this morph into a 972 over indy at 00z How does the ukie treat you? Is it to warm? I am just curious if it has that much of an effect given the antecedent airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 I'm going with the EURO/GGEM/GFS camp. Although I'm still wary of a slight NW correction. A lot of moving parts with this one and a slightly faster digging of the PV or slower movement of the southern stream s/w and this thing will explode over Lk Erie. Prelim call for YYZ: 3-6" of cement. Slightly less than the consensus to account for a slight NW jog. I'll wait for the 00z runs before I put mine out for cmh, but it's 4th and 14 with 20 seconds left, no time outs and we need to move it 65 yards to score....oh and our top receiver just got ejected in the previous play for a high hit on a defender. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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