Harry Perry Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 they go big too, mentioning a foot! Mind = Blown. Strong wording for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 My forecast. Might be a little to high on the NW side or a little to low on the SE side but overall I feel pretty good about it. I'd take 5"-8". I would prefer 8"-12"+, but being on the far SE side of this is going to be iffy in terms of both total precip and p-types. And 5"-8" would get us very close to our normal seasonal average. Doing that by the 1st week of January is doing very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIWeather Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 I swear, it's like they wait until everyone else posts up their warnings and then decide "Well, maybe we should pay attention and get a watch up..." I agree lol. Will be interesting to see exactly where they draw the line. Some of us were thinking SE of the IL River and S of 74, but with some of the counties that LOT put in theirs, might have to expand that a little north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 slower has potential yep slow is not a good thing for us on the southeast flanks.... ...you on the other hand.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 GRR UPDATE ISSUED AT 1104 AM EST FRI JAN 3 2014 DOMINANT LAKE SNOW BAND IS CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE NEAR MUSKEGON...BUT BOTH RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE INTENSITY IS WEAK. REGARDING INCREASING WIND LATER TODAY...LATEST HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT EXPOSED LAKESHORE AREAS TO THE NORTH /I.E... THE SABLE POINTS/ COULD SEE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BEING MET AT THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE. GIVEN A WIND DIRECTION GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH INLAND EXTENT TO THE STRONGEST WINDS SO DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY. AFTER DISCUSSION WITH THE DETROIT AND NORTHERN INDIANA OFFICES... WILL BE ISSUING A WINTER STORM WATCH OVER SOUTHEAST ZONES FOR SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE REGARDING ACCUMULATIONS. THE MAIN IMPACTS MAY BE TRAVEL RELATED AS ALREADY ICY CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN THE AREA. A BIT MORE CERTAIN IS DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THEREFORE PLAN TO ISSUE A SEPARATE WATCH TO COVER THIS. Really hitting hard on the wind-chills. Lol pretty much saying that DTX and IWX is telling them to issue a watch and GRR is like "Yeah, yeah... but those Windchills Monday and Tuesday..." Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 early hi-res comparison at 15z Saturday 0z 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 "THE MAIN IMPACTS MAY BE TRAVEL RELATED AS ALREADY ICY CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN THE AREA. " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 I'd take 5"-8". I would prefer 8"-12"+, but being on the far SE side of this is going to be iffy in terms of both total precip and p-types. And 5"-8" would get us very close to our normal seasonal average. Doing that by the 1st week of January is doing very well. amazing that we are sitting around 6 degrees at noon and then could be potentially double digits below zero in 60 hours and yet in between we may be dealing with mixing issues/rain from a storm. I'll give it until tonight, but I'm getting my banter complaint post ready Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIWeather Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Also, for the fellow ILX folk...ILX will be conducting a conference call with media and emergency managers at 1:30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 amazing that we are sitting around 6 degrees at noon and then could be potentially double digits below zero in 60 hours and yet in between we may be dealing with mixing issues/rain from a storm. I'll give it until tonight, but I'm getting my banter complaint post ready Still have history on our side, but not much else. I'm waiting through tomorrow. We're sooo close that any small shifts could mean a big difference for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 amazing that we are sitting around 6 degrees at noon and then could be potentially double digits below zero in 60 hours and yet in between we may be dealing with mixing issues/rain from a storm. I'll give it until tonight, but I'm getting my banter complaint post ready GFS showing 70knot southwesterly 850 winds over the lakes...timing is everything here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 GRR UPDATE ISSUED AT 1104 AM EST FRI JAN 3 2014 DOMINANT LAKE SNOW BAND IS CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE NEAR MUSKEGON...BUT BOTH RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE INTENSITY IS WEAK. REGARDING INCREASING WIND LATER TODAY...LATEST HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT EXPOSED LAKESHORE AREAS TO THE NORTH /I.E... THE SABLE POINTS/ COULD SEE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BEING MET AT THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE. GIVEN A WIND DIRECTION GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH INLAND EXTENT TO THE STRONGEST WINDS SO DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY. AFTER DISCUSSION WITH THE DETROIT AND NORTHERN INDIANA OFFICES... WILL BE ISSUING A WINTER STORM WATCH OVER SOUTHEAST ZONES FOR SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE REGARDING ACCUMULATIONS. THE MAIN IMPACTS MAY BE TRAVEL RELATED AS ALREADY ICY CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN THE AREA. A BIT MORE CERTAIN IS DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THEREFORE PLAN TO ISSUE A SEPARATE WATCH TO COVER THIS. Really hitting hard on the wind-chills. Lol pretty much saying that DTX and IWX is telling them to issue a watch and GRR is like "Yeah, yeah... but those Windchills Monday and Tuesday..." Lol You know it's bad when DTX is considering going with a WSW and you haven't got one out yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 GRR UPDATE ISSUED AT 1104 AM EST FRI JAN 3 2014 DOMINANT LAKE SNOW BAND IS CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE NEAR MUSKEGON...BUT BOTH RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE INTENSITY IS WEAK. REGARDING INCREASING WIND LATER TODAY...LATEST HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT EXPOSED LAKESHORE AREAS TO THE NORTH /I.E... THE SABLE POINTS/ COULD SEE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BEING MET AT THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE. GIVEN A WIND DIRECTION GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH INLAND EXTENT TO THE STRONGEST WINDS SO DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY. AFTER DISCUSSION WITH THE DETROIT AND NORTHERN INDIANA OFFICES... WILL BE ISSUING A WINTER STORM WATCH OVER SOUTHEAST ZONES FOR SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE REGARDING ACCUMULATIONS. THE MAIN IMPACTS MAY BE TRAVEL RELATED AS ALREADY ICY CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN THE AREA. A BIT MORE CERTAIN IS DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THEREFORE PLAN TO ISSUE A SEPARATE WATCH TO COVER THIS. Really hitting hard on the wind-chills. Lol pretty much saying that DTX and IWX is telling them to issue a watch and GRR is like "Yeah, yeah... but those Windchills Monday and Tuesday..." Lol "THE MAIN IMPACTS MAY BE TRAVEL RELATED AS ALREADY ICY CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN THE AREA. " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 nice being back on the same team. Team Apps Runner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 UKie goes boom boom by day 3. Sub 990mb near Parry Sound, On. 140103161826.gif Hideous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 GGEM at 36 hours. Some frontal snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Team Apps Runner. It looks like Team Apps Runner is about to be clobbered by Team OV Runner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Hi res NMM really bullish on early snows here. .50"+ stripe through the metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Hi res NMM really bullish on early snows here. .50"+ stripe through the metro it was clear early on that would be a good run for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 It looks like Team Apps Runner is about to be clobbered by Team OV Runner UKIE and NAM don't bother me. NAM especially has been way too far north with these storms the last month in the 36-60 hour range. EURO goes SE even a bit and I take the 12z suite and run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Hourly from LOT has me down for 3.5" Bullish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Impressive. Even this model is decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 I have a headache.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Overall i think a track is pretty close to being set however i do think there is a possibility models arent strengthening the low properly esp after seeing the dynamics in play. We saw this with the pre-xmas storm. Again like i said before a lot will depend on where that arctic front sits. Really eager to see euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIWeather Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 For the Central Illinois folk... WICS MicroCast showing...Springfield 7.9Decatur 9.4Champaign 8.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 UKIE and NAM don't bother me. NAM especially has been way too far north with these storms the last month in the 36-60 hour range. EURO goes SE even a bit and I take the 12z suite and run. Here's my thoughts on what the euro will do: Hold with low thru cmh = 50% chance Stronger low further nw = 43% chance southeast = 7% chance over/under on southeast call? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Impressive. Even this model is decent. Stagecoaches north!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Impressive. Even this model is decent. I'll take the NMM or ARW. Unfortunately they are not really supported too well by other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Here's my thoughts on what the euro will do: Hold with low thru cmh = 50% chance Stronger low further nw = 43% chance southeast = 7% chance over/under on southeast call? Ugh, just saw the GEFS. Pretty amped up. I won't bet against your call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 I'll take the NMM or ARW. Unfortunately they are not really supported too well by other models. It's not surprising given the type of models but the NMM looks a lot like the 12z NAM for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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